• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry January 21-23 2025

bouncycorn said:
What's the difference between posting ZR outputs vs posting model outputs in general? If AIFS verified, there'd be a massive ice storm. And it's not as far fetched as GDPS, which has a significant cold bias.

So share ZR maps.. or share QPF maps.. or share MSLP maps.. either way, the model is predicting an ice storm.
Click to expand...
Majority like the maps...please keep posting!
 
Mitch West said:
100%. Many thought the maps were ridiculous when they were pumping out 1-2 inches of freezing rain before the Mid Feb 2014 storm… and then it happened
Click to expand...
I agree with you...if people don't want to see snow/ice maps then I would take the next week or so off of this even thread at the very least.
 
KyloG said:
How do we know it won't verify? We have a highly anomalous cold air being dumped very far south into the conus.
Click to expand...
Yeah there’s a big difference between an in-situ CAD with no continuous supply of CAA like we had in the last storm (where ice accrual still managed to overperform IMO) and this one with a textbook-positioned 1035+ mb high. High-end ice is on the table depending on the track and amount of WAA.
 
Hey guys is this more of a deep south event with the trends being more suppressed that leaves us folks out in the Tennessee valley? Or should I just move on from this system?
 
Can someone explain why N AL seems to be in an unfavorable position for this storm? It seems like many models either have it mainly suppressed south of us or for whatever reason the precipitation sort of dries up coming out of MS then redevelops further east.
 
The thing is the Euro AI nailed the frozen qpf footprint with the last storm starting at around 168hrs out. It's definitely worth looking at now for this storm, imo. I expect the footprint it shows over the next day or two to be close to the ultimate footprint that verifies for the storm.

Also... man the surface temps being modeled are ridiculous cold. Assuming we get a storm, this will be the coldest CAD storm at the surface since 2014, and could be a good bit colder than that one, imo. There was another exceptionally cold CAD storm here in the winter of 2004/2005, but I'm only going off my memory for that one. I know here in Clemson I bottomed out around 23 degree's and we got a few inches of sleet with just a little snow on the front end.

I looked it up: January 29th, 2005.
 
rburrel2 said:
The thing is the Euro AI nailed the frozen qpf footprint with the last storm starting at around 168hrs out. It's definitely worth looking at now for this storm, imo. I expect the footprint it shows over the next day or two to be close to the ultimate footprint that verifies for the storm.

Also... man the surface temps being modeled are ridiculous cold. Assuming we get a storm, this will be the coldest CAD storm at the surface since 2014, and could be a good bit colder than that one, imo. There was another exceptionally cold CAD storm here in the winter of 2004/2005, but I'm only going off my memory for that one. I know here in Clemson I bottomed out around 23 degree's and we got a few inches of sleet with just a little snow on the front end.
Click to expand...
I remember Late January 2005 there was a strong CAD that produced Ice and Sleet all the way to Alabama.
 
RobertRath said:
Can someone explain why N AL seems to be in an unfavorable position for this storm? It seems like many models either have it mainly suppressed south of us or for whatever reason the precipitation sort of dries up coming out of MS then redevelops further east.
Click to expand...
The answer to your question is the same for every storm - the upper level wave evolution will largely dictate where the low pressure and associated precipitation forms and tracks / and cold air availability. There’s a path to a big hit in the mid-south just as there is the Deep South
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
GFS sticking to its guns. No big jump there to hang that energy back even more so maybe this is the pivot point of it coming to other guidance. No matter the storm, there’s always one out there to spoil it and make you sweat bullets
Click to expand...
It’s more like the GFS didn’t even feature the energy this run
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top