Philstorm91
Member
Looks like the western Gulf coast should avoid a major ice storm with the 18Z GFS run so far. Nobody needs crippling ice. More cold, weaker storm, should be better for snow lovers in I-10 to I-20 corridors.
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Looks more in line with last nights 00z run
Cary_Snow95
Member
LOL 1050 HP over Missouri
Virginia NW trend weenies will have to sweat it out a little bit longer
Showmeyourtds
Member
Run looks odd...cold AF, but hard to really tell why/what's holding the moisture back from sliding across the gulf
Wet fart run. Lots can still change 200 hours out.
Nothing wrong with this. Longwave pattern holding steady or improving keeps up in the game - shortwaves embedded within will take us to glory if we can keep the longwave pattern similar.
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Sneaky little event on Sunday 
accu35
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Don’t worry, 6 more hours we get a different look.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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1050+ high in KS/MO, gonna suppress everytime!
So it begins
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It might be suppressed but you aren’t getting a widespread ZR event with any variation of that look
Cary_Snow95
Member
I have a hard time believing there will be a 1050 high over Missouri come verification
RollTide18
Member
Definitely fine with suppression right now
Wut? That’s what you want to see SE of the Apps at this stage when you mix it in with the other various Op and ensemble members from today
Round Oak Weather
Member
To many times I’ve been in the bullseye in middle GA and lost it to the NW trend. If it’s suppressed till Friday I’m fine with that
Yep it’s basically 00z made over from last night. Snow breaking out along the Carolina coast. Not going to turn the corner though
Snowflowxxl
Member
Best run yet IMO
packfan98
Moderator
Might hit Boston?
Ensembles are certainly more useful at this range compared to ops. We are still +7 days, I'd expect R2R changes in the ops, and a slow but steady uptick in ensemble support for the next couple days if this does in fact have legs.
The run was a bad run for the SE. And this option is still on the table this far out is simply all I’m saying
Bingo! Exactly what I've been saying. Until we get inside D6, watching ensembles is the way to go.
iGRXY
Member
I’d expect more snow or suppressed members
Suppressed way south with no or weak storm is the less likely problem scenario compared to a storm with mid-level warmth issues from GSP to RDU, IMO…but understood
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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DT lickin’ his chops right now! Post coming soon….
Will say this -- if someone came to me and asked me to draw up what I'd want models to look like 200 hours away from a historic southern snow, this is *exactly* how I would draw it up.
This could be the biggest southern snow event in a loonnnggg time (10+ years, maybe more).
I'm 100% on board at this point.. though we are still 7 days away, so still lots of uncertainty.. but as of right now, looking good in my eyes.
This could be the biggest southern snow event in a loonnnggg time (10+ years, maybe more).
I'm 100% on board at this point.. though we are still 7 days away, so still lots of uncertainty.. but as of right now, looking good in my eyes.
Cary_Snow95
Member
GEFS is following the OP and is flatter at 132
Stormsfury
Member
All I know is after 5 consecutive runs of the GFS lock stepped on something, I totally expected a stinker run per se. The longwave pattern is still quite there. Would expect to see some more big dogs on the ensemble members and a general average mean about the same
BHS1975
Member
Need the Euro suppressed like the GFS.
Tokenfreak
Member
I don't like the suppressed looked on this GFS run, but I'm not a weather expert so maybe I should like it at this point from hearing you all discuss it.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
These panels tell me there’s a storm coming
Yeah, this looks fine to be honest.
Still a bit of everything for you in here from north to suppressed. I'd say mostly suppressed here,
packfan98
Moderator
I’m not sure I’m a fan of the storm taking so long to get going. I’d love to see it full bore by Wednesday morning, but this gfs suite seems to want to delay it. I don’t want to waste the cold air.
Oconeexman
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100% because once we're within 3-5 days almost always trends NW...98% of the time! So suppressed right now is a very good thing. Watch the ensemble mean for snowfall!
Stormsfury
Member
Let's play ... spot what went wrong with the 18z run!!
SnowmasterATL
Member
SER and tough out far west?
This is a good point, since the term suppressed can mean different things and can have different causes. The timing and strength of the S/W also affects whether a storm is depressed or amped, and exactly where it mingles with the base of the trough. I think most of us want the timing so the the Baja low is injected soon enough to give a cold storm, but not late enough that we ice or rain.
Covering all the bases
Stormsfury
Member
Nope and sorta.
Flat across the east... very east/west configuration, GOM not effectively tapped.
Baja Low bog down as the Western Dig misses the connection to sweep her east