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Wintry January 21-23 2025

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Must be their way of saying …. Ok weenies , we see it too. Now Shutup and give us some time lol


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SIAP - tail end of FFC disco was interesting (boldface is mine)

Again, the confidence on this is about as low as it can get. Zonal
flow, without any coherent, high amplitude features, is notorious
for producing forecasts with very low accuracy and reliability,
especially with precip timing. Clustering algorithms are
literally placing almost equal probabilities in 3 or 4 very
different scenarios. One set of guidance can be mild and sunny on
Monday, while another will be cold with substantial precip. Will
say based on experience that this pattern can produce heavy
precip given a strong enough system and a strong baroclinic zone
with associated vigorous warm/moist advection.

Will need to keep tabs on the forecast for early next week. For
now we have a chance for rain or snow in our deterministic
forecast (even in areas below freezing), but our messaging is
focused on the chance, if any, for arctic air and winter precip.

SNELSON
 
KyloG said:
Go big or go home…size matters. We got cold, let’s get this jacked.
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Yeah, I guess....as long as we keep the cold. Seems like the cold is more of a timing thing. Want to keep the SE Canada vortex longer, and that stinkin baja stinkin low needs to come out and not sit.

Need good timing, and average jackedness.
 
AI snow map says 10:1. Guessing it’s snow and sleet like was mentioned, but looks like it is counting all of it as 10:1. But more importantly, it’s not holding the deep cold in place very long as Fro mentioned. Not good to see based on how it did with the last storm
 
griteater said:
AI snow map says 10:1. Guessing it’s snow and sleet like was mentioned, but looks like it is counting all of it as 10:1. But more importantly, it’s not holding the deep cold in place very long as Fro mentioned. Not good to see based on how it did with the last storm
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So many moving parts but this isn’t bad but could get away from of us rather easily.

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The AIFS really jumped around quite a bit at this range with the last system. It jumps around (like a deterministic model) at this range. Typically settles in around 120-144hrs and then only slight changes. Watch for when it really settles on a solution for 2-3 runs, and around 120-144 hours.. I'm all ensembles at this time.
 
wow said:
Yeah the goal here is to keep this from coming down too disconnected from the PV and slowing down the SLP. Need a steady long fetch of precip ahead of the low center via isotropic lift
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I believe this is the key too. It's why I think the 18z op Euro may have been something special. 18z op Euro and EPS have a more westward extent of the PV trough (keeping cold connected) than the 18z EC AI. However, the EC AI has been trending better in this regard and towards the op Euro and EPS.
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-vort500_z500-7396000.pngecmwf-deterministic-namer-vort500_z500-7396000.png
ecmwf-aifs-all-namer-vort500_z500-1736877600-1737396000-1737396000-40.gif
I have not been swayed, I still think the big dog, 12z Sunday ECMWF solution is in play.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Euro AI was head and shoulders above any model for last event. Lot of weight into it IMO
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Like Bouncy said though, we need to get in a little closer. No operational or AI model has enough skill at this range to pinpoint the nuances that will ultimately dictate the outcome of the storm and who will get what.

There is an incredible signal for a winter storm in some form for the south and southeast next week. Should we be worried? Of course we should. This is the south. But I'm not going to ride or die with any individual model run at this point.

At this point, all options are on the table. What more can you ask for in the heart of winter? This is fun.
 
Take this with a grain of salt as I know next to nothing about models. My thoughts come from being a NC native for 47yrs is all. I grew up in SE Rowan County and you see where I am now. Other then those beautiful clipper systems that occasionally over perform and give me 3-4” of powdery snow. I don’t remember one time ever when ice hasn’t been a component of any storm that comes up from our south. Period.
I appreciate the models and everyone’s knowledge and it’s intriguing to me how knowledgeable some of you are, but from experience, in the end if you live in North Carolina you will see that ice at some point during a winter storm. I’ve seen sleet to snow and back to sleet so thick that we couldn’t even break through to the snow below. I’ve seen 5” of sleet only, I’ve basically seen any combination you can imagine and if you’re honest and live in a line roughly from Statesville to Salisbury to Asheboro and points south you have too.

It’s just not easy to get an all snow event south of the Triad. that is a summation of this post… maybe I should have started out with that instead of ending with it… ,-)
 
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