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Wintry January 21-23 2025

Last 3 euro runs
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Mitch West said:
18z Euro was REALLY digging West. I have a feeling if it kept going then we might have got an amped/ice mess again with even worse upper temps. Hopefully we get her back suppressed some overnight.
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I'm not sure. The whole issue with some runs like the most recent 12z run is it partially got detached / left behind from the primary trough. This run had more of the primary trough digging in (i.e. more cold injected directly into storm). I'm not sure this one wouldn't have looked really good like the 12z Sunday run. But who knows - predicting models isn't easy.
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1300m said:
I'm not sure. The whole issue with some runs like the most recent 12z run is it partially got detached from the primary trough. This run had more of the primary trough digging in (i.e. more cold injected directly into storm). I'm not sure this one wouldn't have looked really good like the 12z Sunday run. But who knows - predicting models isn't easy.
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Would expect gfs to correct from suppressed solution at 18z very quickly tonight suppression is least of worries right now for sure


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This reminds me of Jan 28 2014 with the nature of this cold and an overrunning situation with the potential for snow down into the Fl panhandle
 
1300m said:
I'm not sure. The whole issue with some runs like the most recent 12z run is it partially got detached / left behind from the primary trough. This run had more of the primary trough digging in (i.e. more cold injected directly into storm). I'm not sure this one wouldn't have looked really good like the 12z Sunday run. But who knows - predicting models isn't easy.
View attachment 163495View attachment 163496
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The holy grail run! Comparing the orientation of the trough against that run and it's not that far off to be honest.
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My experience with these brutally cold Arctic air masses that get dumped onto the Rockies is that they usually end up dropping southward along the Rockies more quickly than the models lead you to believe in the medium range.

Pouring extremely cold air into a trough will cause it to dig more quickly and the positive potential vorticity & stability anomalies that are created above the intense low level cold dome “drag” on the trough base, causing it to also dig more. Feedbacks can then occur with a shallow, but intense low-level northerly barrier jet further shoving the cold air mass further south. The GFS & GEFS are notoriously bad at handling these processes and I expect them to eventuality fully give into the EPS & GEPS.
 
Webberweather53 said:
My experience with these brutally cold Arctic air masses that get dumped onto the Rockies is that they usually end up dropping southward along the Rockies more quickly than the models lead you to believe in the medium range.

Pouring extremely cold air into a trough will cause it to dig more quickly and the positive potential vorticity & stability anomalies that are created above the intense low level cold dome “drag” on the trough base, causing it to also dig more. Feedbacks can then occur with a shallow, but intense low-level northerly barrier jet further shoving the cold air mass further south. The GFS & GEFS are notoriously bad at handling these processes and I expect them to eventuality fully give into the EPS & GEPS.
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Yes I think everytime we've had arctic air here the models are way too slow

Heck a few days before February 2021 the euro had a famous run where it cancelled the whole event ☠️ people here still bring it up whenever they don't like what the euro shows
 
Webberweather53 said:
My experience with these brutally cold Arctic air masses that get dumped onto the Rockies is that they usually end up dropping southward along the Rockies more quickly than the models lead you to believe in the medium range.

Pouring extremely cold air into a trough will cause it to dig more quickly and the positive potential vorticity & stability anomalies that are created above the intense low level cold dome “drag” on the trough base, causing it to also dig more. Feedbacks can then occur with a shallow, but intense low-level northerly barrier jet further shoving the cold air mass further south. The GFS & GEFS are notoriously bad at handling these processes and I expect them to eventuality fully give into the EPS & GEPS.
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Is that good or bad
 
Broken024 said:
Is that good or bad
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I think it makes the idea of a completely suppressed storm track less likely. It increases the chances of overrunning in the southern us because the cold dump is focused just to the west and most of this board is riding closer to the Arctic frontal boundary
 
Webberweather53 said:
My experience with these brutally cold Arctic air masses that get dumped onto the Rockies is that they usually end up dropping southward along the Rockies more quickly than the models lead you to believe in the medium range.

Pouring extremely cold air into a trough will cause it to dig more quickly and the positive potential vorticity & stability anomalies that are created above the intense low level cold dome “drag” on the trough base, causing it to also dig more. Feedbacks can then occur with a shallow, but intense low-level northerly barrier jet further shoving the cold air mass further south. The GFS & GEFS are notoriously bad at handling these processes and I expect them to eventuality fully give into the EPS & GEPS.
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Yeah but which eps solution? The "good" one or the "bad" one we've seen....or one yet to come?
 
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