Wintry January 21-23 2025

[Philstorm91]

From the New Orleans (LIX) NWS office discussion this afternoon:

"Beyond that point, we`ll need to address the elephant in the
room. By Monday morning, sub-freezing temperatures are likely
across most of the CWA with the possible exception of immediately
south of Lake Pontchartrain (New Orleans) and lower Plaquemines
Parish. How deeply into the area this cold air penetrates will
determine the weather into the middle of next week. This will set
up potential for non-liquid precipitation at some point early to
mid week next week. Medium range models aren`t quite in agreement
on timing of precipitation, nor on which type of precipitation
would be the preferred solution for Monday night and beyond next
week. Also in question would be the amount of precipitation that
occurs, with some possibility that the heaviest precipitation
stays offshore. MEX high temperatures for Monday and Tuesday look
significantly too warm."

 

[griteater]

AI is my fear for losing this threat...the deep upper low in southern Canada lifts out to quickly.

View attachment 163466

Yep, that's the worst of the bad scenarios to me....the cold is quick in and out

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Crazy how right now this is one of the more poor solutions and it’s still a winter storm for SC/NC/GA, just rather ice. But yeah this is my concern as well with no big block up top

Another lobe does seem to swing in quickly behind it at least. Obviously timing could botch it but at least there’s reinforcement

 

[iGRXY]

Worst case scenario is no storm which seems vs unlikely at this point. 1 notch above that is retreating cold due to no block over Greenland (EURO AI) and we still end up with a significant ice storm in CAD regions. Best case is a 12-24" monster.

 

[beanskip]

You know when the NWS TLH office is talking winter weather, something is happening ....

Looking ahead to the end of the forecast period, and slightly
beyond, is a bit interesting. Models and ensembles have converged a
bit with the 12Z runs this morning with southwesterly H5 flow
overhead with a trough/shortwave over the Four Corners region.
Meanwhile, the ensemble means (both GEFS and EURO Ens) have a
sprawling 1040+mb high moving from the middle of the country to the
Ohio Valley. This is what brings us the colder weather at the end of
the official forecast into next week. The biggest question is...
Will there be moisture? Signs point to yes, but where and how much
are the million dollar questions right now. Seeing as it is still 7-
8 days away, we have left any mention of wintry weather out of the
official forecast. Still, the synoptic pattern in place early next
week is such that wintry weather is very much on the table. As
always, the minute details will dictate what sort of wintry precip
the region sees, if any.It`s something we`ll continue to carefully
monitor in the coming forecast packages. Stay tuned to the latest
official forecasts for what could be another bout of impactful cold
heading into next week.

 

[Parker]

 

[Tokenfreak]

The 18Z GFS starting to run now let see if it holds the pattern.

 

[cyclogent]

Dang, Google Weather went all in here for next week with 0.84" QPF Tuesday/Wednesday. But notice the highly moderated cold with their output which would make sense if we get a strong push of overrunning. Doesn't even drop into the teens next week.

 

[iGRXY]

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

View attachment 163473

Lower heights over SE Canada


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[cyclogent]

Wow, Google loves Raleigh next Wednesday. 1.45 qpf. Anyone know if Google Weather has snow maps?

 

[VARunner]

I still believe this would be more of VA, NC best likelihood of snow.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Watching this baja wave here. Really could go either way. To kick or not to kick. I don’t even really understand what determines that. I want to see another 12z handling of it. Fast and sneaking it under

3 run trend holding it back. Idk if that’s good or bad but it effects our ridge along the west coast

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Watching this baja wave here. Really could go either way. To kick or not to kick. I don’t even really understand what determines that. I want to see another 12z handling of it. Fast and sneaking it under

So far this run it's holding it back and the main trough isn't as diggy. Out to 114 it looks most similar to yesterday's 18z

 

[Ollie Williams]

I like the 18z GFS so far. It looks more like the 00z GFS with less energy centralized closer to the trough axis. Yet a little better than 00z because the PV lobe is further south.

 

[Tokenfreak]

I still believe this would be more of VA, NC best likelihood of snow.

Why because this is more your neck of the woods lol?

 

[griteater]

GFS thru hr135 has a bit more suppressed look this run

 

[iGRXY]

 

[Parker]

Give me suppressed for about 3 more days please.

 

[DopplerWx]

Don't sleep on sneaky Sunday

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I like the GFS. Not gonna be a amped monster

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Monday's event looks more interesting this run

 

[Cary_Snow95]

I like the GFS. Not gonna be a amped monster

I think a footprint similar to yesterday's 18z where it scrapes eastern NC is likely on this run

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Oh

 

[Ollie Williams]

Seriously, this is the perfect spot for a shotwave. The 06z and 12z GFS were too far west for my liking

 

[VARunner]

We have been in snow drought up here in SWVA. Typically average 20 to 25" a yr but the last 4 years we have had less than 4 each year. Las year nada maybe an 1. Not doing too bad this year since we have had 9" so far but I want the big one lol

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

If I remember correctly with the last storm the models’ bias early was to cut the Baja low off and hold it back with no interaction but as we got closer it moved east and became a big player in the storm.

 

[atlwx]

If I remember correctly with the last storm the models’ bias early was to cut the Baja low off and hold it back with no interaction but as we got closer it moved east and became a big player in the storm.

my recollection as well

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This GFS run might be a banger imo

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Also the the lobe over SE Canada is slower this run to help sooth earlier nerves. The baja SW might be about to kick out here at 138

 

[JLL1973]

gfs not going to cut it this run. for my neck of the woods anyways

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

This GFS run might be a banger imo

she on the move now the window is wide. Several ways to win here

 

[iGRXY]

I like this a lot. Slowing down the trough in Canada much more this run

 

[Ollie Williams]

She's sharpening up

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That shortwave ridge axis spiking into Canada is gonna be the driver to tilt this thing

 

[iGRXY]

View attachment 163482I like this a lot. Slowing down the trough in Canada much more this run

 

[griteater]

This is a suppressed run on the GFS out to hr174. It’s shoved down into TX. Perfectly fine to me at this stage of the game

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

So it begins


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[Myfrotho704_]

She's sharpening up
View attachment 163483

Looking at later frames it might actually be to flat. Good run imo because my main concern in this setup is the TPV racing off. This run basically said “f you and that idea” and went the opposite way of that

 

[iGRXY]

I think it’ll be suppressed but give me that 10 ways to Sunday right now