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Wintry January 21-23 2025

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MichaelJ said:
What did we learn from the past weekend storm? (and many others)
Temps will be higher than modeled
Precip will come north (how much is the question)
NAM will nail the temp profiles early and there will be WAA
Precip will likely come in sooner and finally
Runs will change dramatically every time from now to onset

Not trying to spoil anyone's dreams but it will break some hearts in the end
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ener always comes north and west and all storms generally come earlier than projected. Have seen this in over 39 years of snow and ice management
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I think so, yeah.

I can remember I was ringing the alarm for my parents from Rome, GA and we're getting close to where I'm going to sound the alarm again. Need a bit more time though.

I just really hope that this isn't as bad looking. Really would like for it to be more sleet.
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Feb 2014 .... Atleast for NC, Started showing HUGE phased Baja Bombs on Friday afternoon, and never stopped until that next Weds at go time Weds overnight into Thursday. Ive literally never seen some of the at the time I thought was garbage from models. But they just kept coming....run....after....run...after run lol
 
If the ENS across the board are screaming major storm I think we are going to be in for some epic runs of they hold. Get some good rest the next couple nights because it's all gone soon.

These are great trends overall but I definitely think we should pay attention to the 709 and 850 layers. They're absolutely critical here.
 
ForsythSnow said:
If the ENS across the board are screaming major storm I think we are going to be in for some epic runs of they hold. Get some good rest the next couple nights because it's all gone soon.

These are great trends overall but I definitely think we should pay attention to the 709 and 850 layers. They're absolutely critical here.
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Yeah folks get good rest. ill be up posting away at night for yall to wake up to haha
 
Stormsfury said:
Big difference. Last storm, we were left with in-situ wedging. This one is modeled to have a very cold renewing source of extremely cold, dry air ala 1040mb+ sprawling high pressure freshly supplying a constant feed
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Yes and the strength of the high pressure has been quite consistent on all models. With both the GFS and EURO now showing 1050mb+. Also the strength of those HP also leads me to believe that the amount of ZR is over done in areas that are in the teens to low 20s. A stronger will typically lead to a deeper dome of cold air
 
Chazwin said:
Yes and the strength of the high pressure has been quite consistent on all models. With both the GFS and EURO now showing 1050mb+. Also the strength of those HP also leads me to believe that the amount of ZR is over done in areas that are in the teens to low 20s. A stronger will typically lead to a deeper dome of cold air
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Ill be up at 0430 ready to read them
 
Chazwin said:
Yes and the strength of the high pressure has been quite consistent on all models. With both the GFS and EURO now showing 1050mb+. Also the strength of those HP also leads me to believe that the amount of ZR is over done in areas that are in the teens to low 20s. A stronger will typically lead to a deeper dome of cold air
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Yeah unless we just get an insane phaser, if the highs stay the same, this one will just trend colder.
 
Chazwin said:
Yes and the strength of the high pressure has been quite consistent on all models. With both the GFS and EURO now showing 1050mb+. Also the strength of those HP also leads me to believe that the amount of ZR is over done in areas that are in the teens to low 20s. A stronger will typically lead to a deeper dome of cold air
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That's my hope here. Single digit dewpoints ahead of the moisture and still seeing a slightly stronger cold press with a high of that strength could literally dome and stall the warm air press or at least greatly slow it down. During the Dec 2002 icestorm...the isentropic lift line practically parked over SC. South of that. Just sporadic light rain/ZR or drizzle with temps constantly dropping during any precip/evaporative processes.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Just glossing back over the previous storm thread and we weren’t really cooking yet at this range but we were getting some hits here and there. This was the GEFS at similar range View attachment 163435
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I was wondering about this. Thanks for posting. Not sure the last time I’ve seen almost every available piece of modeling this excited
 
I think Columbia WFO reads these boards and social media a lot ..

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Moderating temperatures into this weekend with widespread showers
Saturday with unsettled weather beyond.

Guidance keeps temperatures closer to normal into Sunday ahead
of an approaching cold front. This front may not push through
until the daytime hours Sunday, so highs may occur early in the
afternoon, with temperatures dropping by late afternoon. Much
colder air will push into the region for Monday, with an arctic
airmass possible for Tuesday.

As for precip, good amount of moisture increase Friday night
through Saturday ahead of the weekend cold front. Widespread
rain showers expected Saturday, with rain chances continuing
into Sunday. Some dry weather may occur by Monday into the day
on Tuesday.


***Note: As for just beyond the current forecast period, yes we
continue to monitor the potential strength of the arctic
airmass, along with any winter precip potential just beyond our
current forecast period. There remains a lot of model differences,
and a LOT of uncertainty even with the blends that far out.
However, we will continue to watch the model trends over the
next several days along with the rest of you.***
 
jackendrickwx said:
I was wondering about this. Thanks for posting. Not sure the last time I’ve seen almost every available piece of modeling this excited
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Only time I can recall locking on to something so quick was Jan 21-22 2022, we got monster runs esp from the euro then it trended flatter but still there was consistent hits, then we almost lost it at day 3-4, then the short range brought it back
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Just glossing back over the previous storm thread and we weren’t really cooking yet at this range but we were getting some hits here and there. This was the GEFS at similar range View attachment 163435
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Also goes to show how much models and ensembles can change over the course of 200 hours. We have yet to see the final product but odds for a winter storm for people who aren’t used to seeing it are going up for sure.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Only time I can recall locking on to something so quick was Jan 21-22 2022, we got monster runs esp from the euro then it trended flatter but still there was consistent hits, then we almost lost it at day 3-4, then the short range brought it back
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Pretty remarkable short range come back. It looked more than dead in the water at that 3-4 day range. RGEM was king back then.
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
The storm in late January that year caused a lot more problems if I remember correctly.
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January 24 and 28, 2014 had back to back winter storms for the Baton Rouge area, which is almost unheard of down here. My house got a dusting of snow from the 24th storm and saw some sleet and freezing rain accumulations. Then came the big one the following Tuesday. Temperatures stayed in the mid 20s all day with a steady sleet. I had to work at McDonald's that day, since I had only just graduated college. I wonder if this period of time will see something similar to those events, but hopefully with more snow instead of ice and sleet here. I live just north of Baton Rouge now, so hopefully would be far enough inland that some snow might mix in.
 
My worry is skewed toward early amplification. I love the big, sprawling HP, although we know a 1050+ high 6 days out is like a 1035 high in real life. We'll see.

Meanwhile, I'm just astonished by the minus mid-20s at 850mb on the GEPS mean. That's an ensemble mean 6 days out! Even Mexico is purple lol!

gem-ens_T850a_us_27.png
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Also goes to show how much models and ensembles can change over the course of 200 hours. We have yet to see the final product but odds for a winter storm for people who aren’t used to seeing it are going up for sure.
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We also didn’t have every model on board then so it’s hard to draw any sort of parallel. This is highly abnormal agreement. At worst, we get to use this as another learning experience. At best, we all get smoked.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
We also didn’t have every model on board then so it’s hard to draw any sort of parallel. This is highly abnormal agreement. At worst, we get to use this as another learning experience. At best, we all get smoked.
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Definitely getting good benchmarks for later in the winter as we still have a good 2 months of winter possibilities to go
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Only time I can recall locking on to something so quick was Jan 21-22 2022, we got monster runs esp from the euro then it trended flatter but still there was consistent hits, then we almost lost it at day 3-4, then the short range brought it back
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I honestly don’t remember seeing this much agreement across the board since the February 2014. I remember with that one, Brad P was talking about it on his blog 10 days out showing pretty much every model latching on
 
Rain Cold said:
My worry is skewed toward early amplification. I love the big, sprawling HP, although we know a 1050+ high 6 days out is like a 1035 high in real life. We'll see.

Meanwhile, I'm just astonished by the minus mid-20s at 850mb on the GEPS mean. That's an ensemble mean 6 days out! Even Mexico is purple lol!

View attachment 163439
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Even the EPS mean has a ~1045 high though. It's extremely impressive on a mean at this range.
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-mslp_anom-7482400.png
 
hate to say it but if the "silhouette" of the storm we have so far verified then yeah it would be a multimodal p-type catastrophe

1736881643101.png
an issue with overrunning to me has always been the diffuse areas of low pressure. it's never as organized as your ULL or sharper shortwave. i think that this makes the thermal profile disorganized to say the least.

another issue is, and we saw this last week, is that often overrunning events are positively tilted slugs. the base of the trough can help raise heights downstream, warming the mid levels

with you have a god-tier HP, way different story than the in situ cad last week. tough to scour out. if our current storm form verified the forecast would be a devastating ice storm. the likely bust would be the models underdoing the cold in the low levels, meaning a lot of places bust as sleet, but other places south of that were supposed to remain rain becoming icy. probably getting ahead of my skies here, but just sketching out the general outline of this storm if this verifies
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Only time I can recall locking on to something so quick was Jan 21-22 2022, we got monster runs esp from the euro then it trended flatter but still there was consistent hits, then we almost lost it at day 3-4, then the short range brought it back
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I still have the screenshot. This was the first model I saw, unless I missed some posted earlier. This was the Euro at 156 for the Jan 22 storm. Other models got on board quickly
Screenshot_20250114_141423_Gallery.jpg
 
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