Wintry January 21-23 2025

[GeorgiaGirl]

Did Feb 2014 show something similar to this this far out?

I think so, yeah.

I can remember I was ringing the alarm for my parents from Rome, GA and we're getting close to where I'm going to sound the alarm again. Need a bit more time though.

I just really hope that this isn't as bad looking. Really would like for it to be more sleet.

 

[troyc]

Did Feb 2014 show something similar to this this far out?

We had just moved to Roanoke the previous Fall. I remember the Roanoke times forum and DT mentioning the possibility this far out.

 

[NCSNOW]

It did happen in 2002 if I remember correctly. I hope I never see it again.

Listen to Pack. It can happen. we had over an inch of qpf hoovering between 19-22 the whole time/ 98% freezing rain. December 2, 2002. Knocked power out county wide 100%. I spent a week an half in the dark. Way to early to fret a deal like that now. But with overrunning, its on the table. Especially concerning is a long duration fzng rain scenario. it will freeze every drop. If this is still showing by this Fri/Sat, you best have some contingency plans and prepare for the worst, hope for he best ( sleet/snow)

 

[rburrel2]

The 12z Ukmet is going boom boom too...here's hr168.

 

[SnowNiner]

Geps View attachment 163386

I think this is my favorite clown map I've seen today. Consistent systematic swath of high snow totals from TX to Carolinas. Classic. Hope the EPS jumps too. If so, may be a fun week!

 

[Stormsfury]

I think so, yeah.

I can remember I was ringing the alarm for my parents from Rome, GA and we're getting close to where I'm going to sound the alarm again. Need a bit more time though.

I just really hope that this isn't as bad looking. Really would like for it to be more sleet.

If we can get a constant deep enough feed from the north and continually fight back the warm layer aloft, more sleet and snow would be realized and would hope to limit the ZR totals being shown here

 

[griteater]

We all know how tough it is to keep these storms south. The wave in the SW / at base of the conus trough is going to need to come on out while the cold trough is still in place. Euro shows the slower solution favoring the mid south / NW areas more (for snow). How big and wide is the conus trough (affects how slow it is to move out)? How quick does the wave in the SW kick out? Things to monitor

 

[malak05]

7 to 8 days are still a eternity in weather model watching but man I though the models were pretty decent with last event generally being around same ballpark a week prior to the event. These runs today might as well be spitting image in overall synopsis of the event.

 

[jrips27]

We all know how tough it is to keep these storms south. The wave in the SW / at base of the conus trough is going to need to come on out while the cold trough is still in place. Euro shows the slower solution favoring the mid south / NW areas more (for snow). How big and wide is the conus trough (affects how slow it is to move out)? How quick does the wave in the SW kick out? Things to monitor

Yeah I’m scared that things look this favorable so far out. I mean of course it’s the position we want to be in, but I think it can lull us into a false sense of security as if there aren’t several ways this can fail still

 

[KyloG]

EPS trends and 12z "snow/ice"

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

The agreement at this range is pretty rare. Maybe once a decade or so in the south. Still some time to go but expect your local offices to start honking to the public soon. Especially if the 00z ensemble suite holds serve tonight

 

[John1122]

I don't see how we get freezing rain with temps in the teens. No way....

It's all about the upper levels. I once experienced sleet at 8f, that changed to zr at 14f.

 

[KyloG]

This looks better than the OP...about as good we can hope for at day 6 for a winter pattern

 

[NCSNOW]

The Euro Op and GFS Op both have a whopping 1.5 qpf All Frozen here. same for a wide swath throughout the SE.

Big Dog Coming. Breed to be decided

 

[John1122]

The thing I am most skeptical of currently are the monster highs pressing down into Missouri. 1050s that actually verify that far south are a rarity as we get to the period. Models almost universally overestimate their strength.

 

[BullCityWx]

Needless to say, different from OP

 

[CobraMedic]

How are we doing with cold air? Last storm they predicted historical cold front, but it didn’t hash out. I think that’s the main reason the low skirted where it did. So if the models are showing another coastal storm, does that mean the arctic blast isn’t as strong as predicted?

 

[Stormsfury]

The agreement at this range is pretty rare. Maybe once a decade or so in the south. Still some time to go but expect your local offices to start honking to the public soon. Especially if the 00z ensemble suite holds serve tonight

Actually can't wait to see how the WPC/CPC hazard risk assessment pages look later today after all this information.

 

[malak05]

Man the birds and squirrels are going be holding people at gunpoint for seeds and feeder food at this point!!!!

 

[Storm5]

Gfs and euro both have snow showers into Louisiana and Mississippi by hours 162-170 . While alot will change its not like this way out there 8 days plus .

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Actually can't wait to see how the WPC/CPC hazard risk assessment pages look later today after all this information.

Yeah how can you not draw squiggly lines from Houston to Virginia when literally every piece of guidance is telling you to

 

[Mitch West]

Guys... holy smokes.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Woah

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

As I said last night, it’s hard to hold back the SER/WAR

 

[Stormlover]

Actually can't wait to see how the WPC/CPC hazard risk assessment pages look later today after all this information.

Yeah, thought it may have something yesterday, but they almost have to do something today.

 

[Stormsfury]

How are we doing with cold air? Last storm they predicted historical cold front, but it didn’t hash out. I think that’s the main reason the low skirted where it did. So if the models are showing another coastal storm, does that mean the arctic blast isn’t as strong as predicted?

Big difference. Last storm, we were left with in-situ wedging. This one is modeled to have a very cold renewing source of extremely cold, dry air ala 1040mb+ sprawling high pressure freshly supplying a constant feed

 

[KyloG]

I don't think I've ever seen day 7-8 EPS mean temps this cold with precip...

 

[SD]

There's no suppressor in this pattern so be careful what you root for.

It can get the wave timing out of phase or it can shear it into oblivion or it can hang it out in the west too long but there's no great suppressive action in this pattern any decent wave is going to want to be north

 

[iGRXY]

Boy where the precip transition zones are is going to be incredible. You’re looking at 1.5” of QPF on average with temps in the teens and 20’s. You’re looking at easily a foot plus of snow, 3-5” of sleet if that’s your predominant type and probably 0.5”-0.75” of ice accrual minimum even with heavy precip. That’s serious potential

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Full storm

 

[tjed73]

Guys... holy smokes.
View attachment 163396

As a North Carolinian in that dry slot, this would be kinda lame...lol

 

[Round Oak Weather]

Anybody got the EPS members?

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

This looks like a carbon copy of 2/12/14 as many have stated. The ice didn’t verify nearly as bad as the models indicated for that storm. It was bad in some areas but not nearly as widespread as modeled.

The storm in late January that year caused a lot more problems if I remember correctly.

 

[Mitch West]

Truly unreal stuff from the EPS. This is only through Wed morning.

 

[MichaelJ]

What did we learn from the past weekend storm? (and many others)
Temps will be higher than modeled
Precip will come north (how much is the question)
NAM will nail the temp profiles early and there will be WAA
Precip will likely come in sooner and finally
Runs will change dramatically every time from now to onset

Not trying to spoil anyone's dreams but it will break some hearts in the end

 

[Snowfan]

Truly unreal stuff from the EPS. This is only through Wed morning.
View attachment 163406

Dang it has freezing rain down to Gainesville, Florida.

 

[jrips27]

EPS Panels. I see a member with 20 inches in Savannah lol

 

[Stormlover]

actual temps per canadian

 

[Round Oak Weather]

EPS Panels. I see a member with 20 inches in Savannah lol
View attachment 163408View attachment 163407

Plenty of suppressed looks to go along with the more northern looks. Makes me feel a little better compared to the Op. I’ll take 34 and call it a winter