Stormsfury
Member
GEM is delayed but not denied this cycle.
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Great thing is to, so far the GFS looks within its own ensemble suit 
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
CMC much further south this run than previous, coming more in line with other guidance
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Pops
Member
From those looks yes but could easily come north with future runs imo
No one can know. Just speculation based on models runs and players on the field
The GFS run truly is an upper echelon look with long duration SW flow overrunning into a big and wide cold dome, followed by a west to east moving wave to finish it out
That GFS run honestly gave me February 2014 vibes. Even had a small wave down a quick inch or two for some areas 18-24 hours before the main storm arrives. Great cold airmass in place and getting reinforced with a 1055mb high
NoSnowJoe
Member
I’m in Senoia and I think we’re the sleet capital of Georgia. It can be snowing on the other side of Coweta County and sleeting here. It always seems to work out that way I guess I’m a little bit too far south.
Yep. Probably going to be a total cave here from the GEPS with an OP jump like that
The other thing I like here is that if we can keep the big and wide conus trough, we won’t be dealing with 5-6 different pieces that have to miraculously come together to make it work. The modeling should be better equipped to handle a solution where the features are longwave in nature and not chopped up with a bunch a small features
GEFS H5 trend is a trend of salivation 
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
That’s not a warm look at all, Hudson Bay vortex sitting like a king over SE Canada
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Locked and loaded 
GEFS is incredible for a significant southern winter storm! This is how you wanna trend it at this length away. Sheesh I gotta move back home real quick!
Exactly,
Am I wrong in my memory that snowmegeddon happened a couple of weeks or so prior to the storm your talking about here?
It seemed it was an appetizer for the main course for many!
Similarly to what we had this past weekend!
I mentioned this on Twitter to Mitch before the last storm based upon what the long range modeling was showing after that storm.
It reminded me so much of the evolution of 2014 with what this was showing last week.
Sheesh!
1. We're not 10 days out
2. The setup isn't all that complicated
3. Broad model and ensemble support for very cold air in the area and high pressure over top
4. Ops AND ensembles showing a system
5. You better get some rest while you can
2. The setup isn't all that complicated
3. Broad model and ensemble support for very cold air in the area and high pressure over top
4. Ops AND ensembles showing a system
5. You better get some rest while you can
Stormlover
Member
Brad Travis is taking the GFS I guess 
Pops
Member
Yeah with overrunning I think the north precip field as modeled now would inch up north a little
Might be less than 10. Could start as early as next Tues night.
Yes the mess in Atlanta happened two weeks before that incredible week in February 2014. In facts models first started to pick up on the potential of that storm just a couple of days after the late January storm ended
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
P17 looks climo to me
Euro is running. If it shows anything remotely similar (which I think it will) it’s very much game on
Mahomeless
Member
Anyone got ratio output on the northern fringes? Im assuming 14-16:1 based on column temps.
Snowlover34
Member
The way the trends going so far i may have to snow chase south considering being in far northern Alabama. But the deep south is long over due for a good snowstorm
It looks awful
Pops
Member
Long ways to go
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Can someone post the GEFS mean?
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The thing I like about those is that there either showing a significant winter storm for all of CLT metro or they are missing to the south. Nothing cutting west of the Apps
Consistency is all we need right now 
dsaur
Member
I've promised myself not to pick on you so much. I think the karma is cutting back on my sleet totals, lol. If I'm real good, I think I can reel in a really good period of sleet in about a week, with beaucoup snow on top. So this is me wishing you the best snow of your life!!Yeah, no doubt. I will be happy for folks south of here to cash in but it hurts to be north of the best snows when you live far enough south already! Mind numbing when that happens. @dsaur likes to remind me of one of those events!
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
I know this is being lame but looks like that includes all mixed precip if I had to guess
Geps folding as @Jimmy Hypocracy said would 
To you as well, Tony who if anyone on the board just gets dumped on with sleet, I hope it is you my friend. Onward to the EURO and let's see what Dr. No has to offer at 12z.
Euro might be going for it
rburrel2
Member
I dunno if the Euro will have a storm or not, but it's much better through hr 114. Colder/quicker in the east... follow up wave behind the cold shot is weaker and less suppressive... and our storm energy dropping down the northern pacific coast is further West and everything looks oriented better.