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It shows a funky warm nose at 800mb over me, which would be heavy snow and sleet, probably more sneet like last time! LOL
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
If we get that fast baja wave sneaking underneath like the GFS is showing then a scenario like this becomes very possible
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This one is going to be much longer in duration with more sleet and ice further south it seems. It has the potential to be actually dangerous further inland. Might better watch this one closely.
RollTide18
Member
GFS showing some snow showers moving across the SE before the big event
Vaguely intriguing trend for NC with Sunday deal. 850 temps have also ticked better but still borderline
Snowing out to 180 and it still hasn’t boomed yet…
NCSNOW
Member
Still dumping to my west. 36+ hour event
GFS is a 2 in 1 storm. Overrunning snows farther south transitioning farther NW with the 2nd batch that rejuvenates as the shortwave rounds the bend and moves thru
Stormsfury
Member
Much quicker onset the last cycles..
Almost purely west to east with cold press ... Some energy behind over the four corners, massive overrunning feed on WSW flow aloft.
Almost purely west to east with cold press ... Some energy behind over the four corners, massive overrunning feed on WSW flow aloft.
This is the best run I’ve ever seen
packfan98
Moderator
Got a last second boom with the trough axis going negative.
Sweet baby Jesus. Still going
CMC trying to join in 
Pops
Member
lol now Canadian cold and dry. This thing is not even close to being figured out but we already knew that gfs looks good though
packfan98
Moderator
We are only 100 hours out from dropping the two key pieces of energy into the west coast region…
2 inches of ZR showing up again. I can’t even imagine this actually happening
CMC & ICON folding like an omelet folks.
NCSNOW
Member
Thats how the crusher did in 2000. Barcelonic induced and we got the pivot etc. 1300m can explain it. But that feedback , was written up about in post annalysis.
This cold air prior is incredible. And so rare 
Mahomeless
Member
Definitely not the banger we saw earlier this morning, but still a decent, long duration, event for some of the southern members on the board.
Stormsfury
Member
I'm hoping the intense FGEN can stay south enough to prevent this level of icing or the levels of low level cold is deep enough to be sleet vs ZR.
Locked and loaded again right behind it energy sliding down the rockies like a ferris wheel
. Storm dropped into Texas at 140 
Storm5
Member
Twm
One inch of snow with these temps behind it is a banger . Don't need a foot of snow
Stormsfury
Member
GEM is 2 days late to the party..
Canadian finds another way to get there. No cutoff bowling ball sliding underneath but finds a way to overrun
iGRXY
Member
You wouldn't get that much but temps are in the mid 20's down to the coast. there absolutely would be some serious accrual. 0.5-0.75" likely IMO.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
It's later, I think, but the CMC is a yes.
I'd post pics if I wasn't on my phone.
I'd post pics if I wasn't on my phone.
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Thing is we want to find a way to overrun that airmass quicker so we could be snowier. The more we wait to quicker we warm up the mid levels, the low levels/sfc takes longer but I don’t want more sleet/freezing rain dominant storms
rburrel2
Member
144hr ukmet looks good to me. 500mb heights laid out west to east across the southern tier.
Stormsfury
Member
Yep, sleet/ZR fest at 228 across the Deep South into SC
Bigedd09
Member
The Canadian also had our last storm hitting 2 days later than it did at this range. I think it's safe to say that it's just not a very good model. GFS isn't either but I think it's better with timing
Stormsfury
Member
Everything so far on this cycle has a classic overrunning signature to it.
Stormsfury
Member
The Canadian handled the shortwave that the GFS has generating the big overrunning event differently. the GEM absorbed that piece earlier and raced it out so the GEM took that portion of it out of the equation.
Snowlover34
Member
So is this a situation where this storm is more of a deep south hit more than the areas in the mid south?
iGRXY
Member
I'm worried about this as well. We are on a thin line to having not just mix P-Types but a legit ICE storm that we haven't seen since 2005.
I think the big takeaway right now is the ensembles are leading the way showing a favorable pattern for overrunning an Arctic air mass. What is beginning to become quite encouraging is that despite quite variable H5 evolutions, the ops and individual ensemble members are starting to pump out winter storm solutions quite frequently.