Snowlover34
Member
come to papa
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
tractor girl
Member
It's a trap!
Only thing about the AIFS that I complain about it the weakness of the S/W and how strong the subtropical ridging gets on the SE, so it’s a ice event rather then snow 
Craziest GEFS run of the winter. We’ve had some great eps runs but the GEFS has never been crazy. Let’s build on this
GEFS dialed in with the WAR. Great zone opening up for a storm track 
GEPS not there yet but improving every run
GEPS not there yet but improving every run
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Hopefully this will grant us the power we need.
This is about as classic a surface map as you will ever see for a SE winter storm. Strong HP moving in in tandem with a wave of LP from the Gulf with an arctic air mass in place. We need to thoroughly appreciate seeing these things when they're printed out.
17 is apocalyptic lol
17 is apocalyptic lol
rburrel2
Member
The 06z Mogreps mean looked great at the end of its run. A low developing in the gulf and you can see the wave on the mean 500mb map. Anybody have the paid precip maps?
tennessee storm
Member
Yeah. If it winds up a amped up system , it will come north
Right now I'd definitely still lean ensembles for the general H5 pattern (good or bad trends) at this range. EC AI has been jumping around quite a bit so it's definitely not dialed in yet at this range.Then you got the EPS doing this… and even the latest 06z lookingView attachment 163292
DAWG4LIFE
Member
When does the euro update?
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2021
- Messages
- 3,741
- Reaction score
- 11,697
- Location
- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
4PM 1/22 according to the GFS:
16º +SN N15/G36 VIS .15 mile
Whew lord.
16º +SN N15/G36 VIS .15 mile
Whew lord.
With the WAR becoming an increasing real feature suppression becomes less of a concern. Mjo would favor the cold down the plains into tx this further leads to the idea of some type of WAR response. Again the concern here is NW or miller B not suppression imo. I also still like the idea of trying to late bloom a coastal when this whole pattern is on its way out.
Jan88
Member
Yes it did after a foot of snow with temps in the teensYou wanna talk about rates? Almost 12" falls in Charlotte in six hours then an inch of sleet on top of it.
One thing a lot of folks dont remember about 1988 is it ended as sleet.
Psalm 148:8
Member
- Joined
- Dec 25, 2016
- Messages
- 297
- Reaction score
- 626
Dang!!! I haven’t seen crazy runs like I’ve seen through the thread in years!!!! There was one model that always buried us on 384 hours.. forgot the name.. but geez!! This is next week!!! We couldn’t buy a fantasy run in the last couple years!
Mahomeless
Member
You could not ask for a better run.....amazing. It will change 100 times between now and then, but that is classic.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The longwave trough axis being centered to the west and northwest of us here is a general indication that we are a lot less likely to see suppression this time around than in December.
I would be on the roof shoveling snow while worrying about roof collapse. Haha
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 3,517
- Reaction score
- 5,435
WolfpackHomer91
Member
VARunner
Member
The Euro shows nothing and I trust the Euro over the GFS.
SnowNiner
Member
Yeah, the GFS seems keen on a system for sure, and that was a glorious 6z run. Makes me frustrated just seeing it knowing we haven't had one in 20 years. lol.
I too don't think a whiff/completely suppressed is believable. I've got to think with the trough to our west, and with a WAR, that we get a system with alot of qpf over the SE. What that does to the temps, don't know right now. But man if we have a 1040+ high in NY during go time like GFS, I'd be ALOT less worried.
Waiting on the EPS to tag in. It's looked pretty uninterested and suppressed the last couple days. Honestly GEFS honking isn't real until the EPS is.
I too don't think a whiff/completely suppressed is believable. I've got to think with the trough to our west, and with a WAR, that we get a system with alot of qpf over the SE. What that does to the temps, don't know right now. But man if we have a 1040+ high in NY during go time like GFS, I'd be ALOT less worried.
Waiting on the EPS to tag in. It's looked pretty uninterested and suppressed the last couple days. Honestly GEFS honking isn't real until the EPS is.
EPS looks good though
00z EPS was honking about as loud as you could ever hope for at this range and lines up quite well with the 06z GEFS. Long way out, but I thought that was a big signal for a storm in general. If this signal holds or improves over the next 48-72 hours that would be a good sign we could be tracking something significant.
Last edited:
znel52
Member
Have been pleasantly surprised by this January and Winter as a whole so far. Briefly saw some sleet (no accumulation) with the last event. Although the odds for snow in my neck of the woods is never high this setup next week looks to be the most legit shot we've had since 2018. Bring it home models!
Sent from my Pixel 8 Pro using Tapatalk
Sent from my Pixel 8 Pro using Tapatalk
SnowNiner
Member
Starting to, probably better at h5 but the snow mean looks ok....this is the depth, I don't have access to the fall mean. Maybe that's better.
Big fan of this trend on the icon. Trending way better ahead our system of interest 
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 3,517
- Reaction score
- 5,435
It showed winter storms over much of the SE a few runs prior, so which "Euro" do you believe?
Mahomeless
Member
Just a troll. I've learned to mute them and move on. That "ignore" button has extreme power to continue to make this board enjoyable.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but wouldn’t the subtropical ridge get beaten down some by the STJ
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2021
- Messages
- 3,741
- Reaction score
- 11,697
- Location
- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
The cold seems to only be getting more intense as we get into the mid range.
I never had sleet here with that storm!
It almost shocks me that areas to my NE did.
Yeh the ICON definitely went in a better direction. She was loading up something there in the Gulf.
iGRXY
Member
Suppressed but I like this look a lot this far out, especially the cold press.
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 3,517
- Reaction score
- 5,435
ICON is suppressed at 180 hours. 700mb winds were out of the west southwest but then shifted to west northwest at 180 hours. No over-running is gonna happen there. 
GSP actual ended it with a period sleet and then a bit of ZR
It was snowing in SW Louisiana in the 20s.
iGRXY
Member
I promise you don't want to see the tweaks happening yet. This needs to stay right where it is another 3 days at least IMO