Wintry January 21-23 2025

[1300m]

Dude was just about to say this. I mean it's almost a carbon copy. Several big dogs View attachment 163237View attachment 163238

That is quite the signal between the EPS/GEFS/GFS and like I said earlier, I do think this setup 1) could be something ensembles sniff out sooner rather than later and 2) may support eastern parts of the board more with those being closest to the right entrance region of the upper jet and strong baroclinicity. Looong way to go and obviously things can and will change, but quite the signal at this range.

 

[Tarheel1]

Yes, some trending in recent Euro runs of widening / fattening (are those words?) of the cold plunge along with more ridging into Greenland

View attachment 163235

That the craziest pac-ridge I think I’ve ever seen modeled and in a great location!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That is quite the signal between the EPS/GEFS/GFS and like I said earlier, I do think this setup 1) could be something ensembles sniff out sooner rather than later and 2) may support eastern parts of the board more with those being closest to the right entrance region of the upper jet and strong baroclinicity. Looong way to go and obviously things can and will change, but quite the signal at this range.

Another shot at this producing a rare footprint. Let’s hopefully not mess it up again

 

[1300m]

Quite the signal in eastern NC on the EPS that run especially considering the control / op was dry.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Quite the signal in eastern NC on the EPS that run especially considering the control / op was dry.

View attachment 163240
View attachment 163239

Yeah this is impressive, that mean high though on the 21st is one of the coldest I’ve seen in a while for the EPS at D7-8

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Oh my goodness the AIFS

 

[albertwilsonjr]

Oh my goodness the AIFS ‍

Good or bad


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[Myfrotho704_]

Oh my goodness the AIFS

Eh got excited when I saw its output QPF wise with that big CAD high pressure.
But then saw the low levels… probably a big IP/ZR event. At least the AI has something after blanking this period for a while

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Eh got excited when I saw its output QPF wise with that big CAD high pressure. View attachment 163243
But then saw the low levels… probably a big IP/ZR event. At least the AI has something after blanking this period for a while View attachment 163244

Yup. Lights out on it

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

4 run trend next Wed afternoon temps…has most of NC below freezing on the 00z . It probably will moderate some , but certainly a cold airmass on the table and prime time to get wintry weather.


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[CNCsnwfan1210]

Snow and ice breaking out over central TX hr 168 on the 06z GFS, let’s see where it goes


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[Mitch West]

Dangerous game..

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Wow, nice winter storm for the southern US with a cold high to the north


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[CNCsnwfan1210]

Cold air damming signature with that high over NY, a lot of snow and ice for many on this board


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[Mitch West]

Catastrophic sleet in the teens & low 20s in South Carolina.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Heavy snow and ice for the Carolinas with the low east of Charleston SC heading NE, big winter storm!


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[Meteorologist1999]

Dangerous game..
View attachment 163246

We need the SER to be knocked down at this range, definitely not beef up like that.

 

[Mitch West]

We need the SER to be knocked down at this range, definitely not beef up like that.

Yep. 100% agree. But one run.. everyone knows the deal.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Low still heading NE, still not done in the Carolinas, snow well into VA hr 210


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[CNCsnwfan1210]

IMO, this storm signal is there during the middle of the arctic outbreak (around Wed) cold air is there, it doesn’t hurt to have some SER but not too much, it’s a fine line, but get the cold air firmly entrenched as the models suggest, and I think we’ll be in a good position for wintry wx.


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[Jan88]

IMO, this storm signal is there during the middle of the arctic outbreak (around Wed) cold air is there, it doesn’t hurt to have some SER but not too much, it’s a fine line, but get the cold air firmly entrenched as the models suggest, and I think we’ll be in a good position for wintry wx.


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Storm forming Monday night in Texas so 6 days out .good signal

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Yep. 100% agree. But one run.. everyone knows the deal.

Right, and what’s interesting is I think the temperatures will be the thing to watch because consensus shows temperatures in low to mid 20s. Instead of low to mid 30s we usually see in models in Midlands.

 

[rburrel2]

The 06z GFS run look a lot like the 00z Euro AI, the ai was just a little warmer at 850mb.

 

[Jan88]

Right, and what’s interesting is I think the temperatures will be the thing to watch because consensus shows temperatures in low to mid 20s. Instead of low to mid 30s we usually see in models in Midlands.

Good cold air source.much different from the last storm

 

[rburrel2]

Comparison: 06z GFS vs 00z Euro AI...

 

[packfan98]

Huge SE winter storm on the 6z GFS. Similar to other operational and ensemble runs we’ve seen.

 

[Jan88]

Catastrophic sleet in the teens & low 20s in South Carolina.
View attachment 163247

Classic look!

 

[Mitch West]

Well like we always say, temperatures will ALWAYS be an issue around here. Whether that’s in the upper levels or the surface. I use to be in the camp of just give me a Winter Storm, but after being reminded of how depressing freezing rain & sleet is, I am really wanting some snow somehow.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

im sitting good just south of birmingham al

 

[packfan98]

I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen over 5 inches of sleet predicted on a model run. Wow!

 

[rburrel2]

I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen over 5 inches of sleet predicted on a model run. Wow!

Yea the wedge being depicted on the GFS is old testament stuff.

 

[SNOWMANN]

I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen over 5 inches of sleet predicted on a model run. Wow!

I got 3" of pure sleet from the Feb 2014 storm. I hate sleet such a waste.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Odds of a storm are pretty good. Now, just nailing down the track and depth of cold air is what we have left. That Euro AI gives me pause. This could very well be an over-running event that produces sleet and freezing rain for most. Keep an eye on the cold air. Let's see how it trends over the coming days. That will tell us all we need to know.

 

[Stevo24]

Odds of a storm are pretty good. Now, just nailing down the track and depth of cold air is what we have left. That Euro AI gives me pause. This could very well be an over-running event that produces sleet and freezing rain for most. Keep an eye on the cold air. Let's see how it trends over the coming days. That will tell us all we need to know.

It’s mind boggling to me that we have an artic front coming in, that actually should be well in place by this storm (right?) and we are still dealing with temps.

 

[Jan88]

Yea the wedge being depicted on the GFS is old testament stuff.
View attachment 163259

That's an amazing look!

 

[Jan88]

Well like we always say, temperatures will ALWAYS be an issue around here. Whether that’s in the upper levels or the surface. I use to be in the camp of just give me a Winter Storm, but after being reminded of how depressing freezing rain & sleet is, I am really wanting some snow somehow.

It's our latitude I'm afraid also gonna b an issue

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

 

[Mitch West]

ONLY through Tues morning.

 

[rburrel2]

Hang it in the louvre boys! All monster/cold deep south hits heading our way , or slightly suppressed looks.. we got it right where we want it!

 

[packfan98]

ONLY through Tues morning.
View attachment 163261

Yeah, big GEFS run with tons of Big Dog potential and a fresh cold air mass. Good times!