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Wintry January 21-23 2025

Day 7 GFS Ensembles .. the lobe is leaning back more. If we're going for the Big Kahuna, we need room for it to bloom and this is a good sign. Need that lobe to stretch out NE to SW.

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iGRXY said:
Worrying about suppression 8-10 days away is ludicrous. 1. The Airmass will moderate some the closer we get to verification. It always does. This past week should've been a stiff reminder that having the cold airmass will always be the number 1 ingredient. Worry about the moisture later. Especially when it comes to overrunning because it almost always trends more NW in the final 24-48 hours.
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2014 snowmageddon in Birmingham is a prime example. Same for Atlanta during that storm. Definitely was not forecast until the very last second. Everything was supposed to be "suppressed "
 
Bham 99 said:
2014 snowmageddon in Birmingham is a prime example. Same for Atlanta during that storm. Definitely was not forecast until the very last second. Everything was supposed to be "suppressed "
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I remember for that storm that Brad P was convinced it would miss CLT to the south until litterally the day before.
 
GSP
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM EST Monday: Weak upper ridge will move over the
East Coast late Thursday into Friday, leading to better airmass
recovery during this time, but guidance are keying in on our next
system this upcoming weekend, but timing differences and overall
evolution continue to diverge some. Expectation is that this next
system will be all liquid, with the exception of possible freezing
rain/sleet at the onset over the higher elevations before turning
all rain for all of the CFWA. The system will push through the
area and a very stout arctic airmass is shown filtering in behind
and will set the stage for a very cold and dry continental polar
airmass across the CFWA and a good chunk of the Lower 48. Some
northwest flow snow may develop on the backside of the system late
Sunday into the early part of next week along the NC/TN border,
but the main weather headline will be the colder air headed our
way by next week. Temperatures will be within a few degrees of
near-normal values through much of the extended, but signs of
really cold air to come by D7 and beyond.
 
Lot of good hits on that 18z Gefs. I need Bullcitywx to get intrigued. Hes the man at keeping track of all those eps,gefs,geps hits,trends for the Person County Airport. Close enough to my local, thats how i can gauge the flavor of them all. Getting warmer or cooler to something being advertised to happen.
 
Bham 99 said:
2014 snowmageddon in Birmingham is a prime example. Same for Atlanta during that storm. Definitely was not forecast until the very last second. Everything was supposed to be "suppressed "
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It wasn’t forecast by local ATL mets but it sure was on here. I had my wife pull our son out of his elementary school at noon that day. She thought I had lost my mind. Three hours later I was Father of the Year.
 
Ron Burgundy said:
It wasn’t forecast by local ATL mets but it sure was on here. I had my wife pull our son out of his elementary school at noon that day. She thought I had lost my mind. Three hours later I was Father of the Year.
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I was forecast to go into work at 1pm that day and I called my boss to tell them i'm not coming in. They didn't understand why lol.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
We support Canada as a 51st state for this run. View attachment 163212
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Good thing it’s the CMC which has been absolutely pathetic performance wise recently and with our last storm at H5, that’s that far NW. but certainly still a possibility to be NW given it’s driven by the WAR/SER
 
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