Canadian has it. Caught in between with a weird look. Let’s go ahead and split the difference and lock it in 
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Cary_Snow95
Member
Models have definitely started to key on this energy. We’ve seen 5 or 6 runs with significant eastern storms
packfan98
Moderator
Cary_Snow95
Member
Extremely similar to yesterdays monster euro run
The Canadian & Icon are currently locked into the energy dropping further West. The GFS & Euro are further East.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yep, in a perfect world, you want to hold this GFS look for a couple days, then trend it north some.
I'd definitely be more concerned about more ridging, but I don't think the long term CMC handled the last system well (RGEM sure did though).
belowfreezing
Member
I'm glad the storm signal is still there. Should be interested to see if the coastal bombs continue showing up.
Agreed. WAR rearing it’s ugly head would be my biggest concern. Next on the list would be a late bloomer.
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Euro was best on the last system, followed by the GFS and then the UKMET. Canadian and ICON had odd solutions and threw in some wildly divergent patterns at times. FV3 did well for GA at the end.
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Looks great. Just need to do that for the next 35 model runs.
Cary_Snow95
Member
wow
Member
Good to see a similarity to yesterday's 12z Euro run.
Tokenfreak
Member
This looks like the perfect set up. Hopefully nothing changes and it stays that way or even gets better the next 35 model runs lol
Cary_Snow95
Member
Continued:
GFS 12z 1/12
GFS 18z 01/12
GFS 00z 01/13
GFS 06z 1/13
GFS 12z 1/13
This is the biggest storm signal we’ve had this far out in recent memory. This is big time model honking
NCSNOW
Member
Yes it would have as depicted for us up here. It was a model run an yes I get you live in central SC. Dont sweat its highly likely not gonna happen. I'll take both
I am not sweating it. Just showing what would work & wouldn't work IMO for the majority on here. Even up towards your neck of the woods, it wouldn't be one of the better set ups. I am mainly saying it because what the ICON & CMC are showing are fail modes in this pattern for many on here.
NCSNOW
Member
Ukmet was a miss on early Mon, like Icon.
But, like the Icon at 5H looks like it could have more coming mid week perhaps.
But, like the Icon at 5H looks like it could have more coming mid week perhaps.
GEFS looks to have two threats. Day 8-9 and then one just after.
Mercy
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Colder than a bankers heart
Afternoon highs below freezing down to the Florida panhandle
I just can't see these temps verifying for 1pm ET next Tues afternoon. Maybe if it is overcast with snowing
No talk of the euro 12z monster snow print.
Cold and dry. The big risk for the 18-23rd period.
Cold and dry. The big risk for the 18-23rd period.
Sounds like you're making a forecast if not at least a 'call'
aka the first two required ingredients in any winter storm. Great place to start.
Its too easy to dash the "wishcasting" of southern snow weenies and it borders on trolling even if backed by facts. I always consider people's location to understand their particular bias and a southern snow usually doesn't benefit a guy wanting snow in Southern Illinois.
SnowNiner
Member
Yeah, to me both the EPS and the GEFS are pretty suppressed at the moment. That's a possibility. I wouldn't be surprised to see the SE ridge and WAR flex more but we'll see.
Agreed, for a threat after the 23rd when the cold relaxes
John1122
Member
I don't know that it will be the same or not, but looking back when the just passed cold shot was coming into view the Euro/GFS was nothing but suppression/OTS for a while. It was a cold desert. That obviously didn't come to pass. It was quite a bit warmer than modeled, and way wetter in the end.
rburrel2
Member
Not to say i'm buying this... but the GFS did turn this in to our January 11th winter storm.
Well said. I say this as someone who’s lived in the Carolinas my whole life and have followed too many winter storms to worry about suppression a week or more out. Can suppression happen? Of course it can, but at this point you gotta play the odds and just know that it’s not what typically happens
beanskip
Member
Yeah, there is no better computer model parlay than Euro with a big hit and GFS with the low over Cuba.
rburrel2
Member
Well the 06z GFS graphcast was a major snowstorm for SC/NC at hr228, so there's that. Snow/Ice line around Augusta/Columbia/Florence, SC. All these maps are valid for 1pm Wednesday Jan 22nd. (6hr precip totals depicted below; more fell before and after).
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SC
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SC
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NCSNOW
Member
EPS looks positive on the qpf 1/21. Anyone see anything on better panels?
Pops
Member
One thing bout it icon and Canadian look almost identical..maybe wrong but identical
NCSNOW
Member
The Icon and Ukmet, look like they could have produced a good hit middle next week. They don't go out far enough. We will find out at 0z tonight, 12z tomorrow