it's feeling like 1989
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Stormsfury
Member
I thought the 12z run earlier today was about as close to Dec 1989. This run is like a mix of 1989 with a 1973 track (only further south)
TreyAustin
Member
Hey ya'll! I know we are pretty far out from this system but my first call snowfall map for Raleigh forecasts 12-18 inches to fall. Stay tuned!
-TA
-TA
Philstorm91
Member
Baton Rouge getting up to 3 inches with a round 2 of snow flurries a couple days later! What's not to love?
I actually think there was a 18z GEFS member with this exact result.
NCSNOW
Member
Gfs. Through NC lense. Whole SE gets hit Round 2 @3
ROUND 1 Sun
Round 2 Tues
Round 3 Fri
ROUND 1 Sun
Round 2 Tues
Round 3 Fri
NCSNOW
Member
Dear Lord at the ICE storm Augusta up through all of SC on top of a foot of snow. What a fantasy Run.
yeah there's been a few different looks at 500 mb thrown but when i think of 1989 i think of super offshore low, mega high (1050+) crawling through the plains and overrunning right on the coast and this is consistently checking those boxes. kind of interesting btw that theres been a few looks at 500 mb ultimately arriving at the same result
NCSNOW
Member
Over an inch of frzng rain on that foot of snow. Can you imagine. Ugh
2 inches of frzng rain on Mets palace with rd 3. Like some arsonist is running the 0z GFS
2 inches of frzng rain on Mets palace with rd 3. Like some arsonist is running the 0z GFS
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Canadian was going to go for it as well for round 3 at the end of its run.
Stormsfury
Member
The crude TT maps warmed up to the mid/upper 30s in the Lowcountry on Friday after starting out as a mix/ice. But damn what an insane run
NCSNOW
Member
Actually a rd 4 on Sat for your area up to Morehead. That would be 4 hits from This coming Sun to the following Sat. 6 day span.
Stormsfury
Member
What grabbed my full attention is that the GFS has seemingly locked itself into this solution even with subtle variances in s/w at 500mb. (This run with the Baja Low, and a s/w up an Alberta)... it sharpened the Eastern Trough and is creating a screaming jet at the upper levels inducing strong lift.
GFS cranking out the good stuff like old times!
NCSNOW
Member
That was the 1st time ive seen a baja pop up at h5 like gfs just did. And when it finally started crawling out, the orientation of stalled front, with chunks of ns coming down was a dream.
Interested to see if that SW vort keeps popping up. It was a little beast out there early on. Like 3 contours closed off
Interested to see if that SW vort keeps popping up. It was a little beast out there early on. Like 3 contours closed off
Stormsfury
Member
Shut the front door...
A sneaky trailing s/w along a boundary inducing a little leftover action.
The GFS just missed a....I'm not gonna say it
Stormsfury
Member
Yeah. When it first popped up, I was like uh oh.. but the 500mb wavelength didn't support a rollover bogdown. Crazy to see all the random s/w pop up and still didn't really change the outcome if the previous couple runs in the Coastal Plain. Is the GFS trying to lock down this event?
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Relying on the SER/WAR to be as modeled or weaker sure is risky business.
RollTide18
Member
Looks like a better pattern for us along and south of US 80, at least the cold appears to be there, just got to time up the moisture right
albertwilsonjr
Member
Can someone post the gefs ens when they are ready
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Just at first glance it appears the CMC ejects the Baja wave faster causing an early phase and pumps the WAR. This scenario puts areas west in play. Rainy for the Carolinas. The GFS lets the Baja cutoff hang back which allows a clean push of the Arctic boundary. Baja ejects later. This is what we want. Multiple chances with this scenario
Stormsfury
Member
Those Canadians with their progressive nature...
Almost seemed like to me that the Baja Feature made absolutely no attempt to detach for a short time like the GFS did. In fact the GFS detachment hung back and waited for the next s/w to round the base while the GEM never detached that piece, just slung it east a whole 24 to 36 hours quicker...
I mean if you could time this thing right and sneak it through at the right time it would be a benchmark storm for the south. No doubt about it. What’s the storm from the 20’s or 30’s with the big baja cutoff phase over the Carolinas? Gaw 
I’m gonna post this one frame because 
Good bit of support on the GEFS it seems 
Man there are some bombs 
Sheesh 
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
GFS op was showing temps in the teens in eastern NC while snowing. The 12z run did that and also the earlier runs of the Euro had that as well.
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Downeastnc
Member
Mar 1980 had snow in the teens here....outside of that the closest I can remember was maybe Jan 2018 towards the end I know it was low 20's and snowing at least.
I'd say the GFS / GEFS are the least of our worries right now. Would like to get some other model support to join in.
Euro is coming in cold and suppressed thru Tuesday, but on the 500mb trend loop here, I like the way it is "widen-ing" out the cold across the conus. Just need a wave to make its way around the track from Idaho to NMexico into the SE
Euro is coming in cold and suppressed thru Tuesday, but on the 500mb trend loop here, I like the way it is "widen-ing" out the cold across the conus. Just need a wave to make its way around the track from Idaho to NMexico into the SE
Euro is just to strung out, but I like the trough getting “fatter”
Per say. Sorta starting to see some signs of lowering heights trailing the big vortex which always open the chances of successful digging energy
Per say. Sorta starting to see some signs of lowering heights trailing the big vortex which always open the chances of successful digging energy
Yes, some trending in recent Euro runs of widening / fattening (are those words?) of the cold plunge along with more ridging into Greenland
Wow the EPS looks great. Very similar to the GEFS. 
Dude was just about to say this. I mean it's almost a carbon copy. Several big dogs
I may be wrong here but it’s not far off from the look of that second storm setup in January 2022, dealing with a digging energy in similar areas just like that one and a deep cold airmass