rburrel2
Member
This run is getting ridiculous... whew. Only out to 210hrs. That's a 3 inch snow mean for SC, 4 inch mean for Eastern NC.. and growing...
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
There's at least 4 huge storms on this run with one 2 to 3 foot swath from atl to Charlotte. Likely a skew but it's not losing the signal.
rburrel2
Member
What's really crazy is of the few members that don't have a storm around day 9... most of them have a storm coming a day or two later... This may be the best GEFS run I've ever had the pleasure of witnessing.
rburrel2
Member
When there's 4+ huge storms it's not longer a skew... it's telling you something... hehe.
albertwilsonjr
Member
Can someone post the full ensembles
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rburrel2
Member
This is how you win... yesterday's 12z GEFS run compared to the 06z coming out now.
rburrel2
Member
The 00z Euro Graphcast has the storm with Classic CAD, just a tad suppressed.
There are model runs and then there is GEFS #17. Not liking the amped up members, far too early.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
It's something on this suite
And 0z
Sort of 18Z
12Z? still there
It's showing more since 0Z I believe in terms of a southern winter storm and I look for it to hold and increase at 12Z due to data.
And 0z
Sort of 18Z
12Z? still there
It's showing more since 0Z I believe in terms of a southern winter storm and I look for it to hold and increase at 12Z due to data.
Oconeexman
Member
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Thats what im talking about...a wedge with some serious umph! Ne winds driving and reenforcing a cold air mass that cant be dislodged!
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
I’ve never seen anything as glorious as number 17
Last night's UKMET looked primed too.
The UKMET gets the s/w too far into the SW. It would probably cut off and look like the 00z AIFS giving us ZR/RN, verbatim
It's all hyperbole fpr now but if ever GEFS 17 became reality people really would need to prep themselves for being stranded for 7-10 days, power outages, and simple living. Over 2 feet of snow in south would be rough
rburrel2
Member
What's neat is 0 of 30 members are showing rain for this storm for most people. 20 of 30 members are showing accumulating snowfall outside of the mountains for someone in GA/SC/NC. You can't get much better than that at 192-200hr lead time.
NCSNOW
Member
You should watch last night 0Z GFS. I was thinking same thing and it comes out and hits us in the mouth 4x's for some in a 6 day span. If that 0zGFS op doesn't cutoff, No Baja low will ever cutoff, be left behind. It was a mini beast way out there.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
GEFS shows plenty of cold air available during the period of interest.
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wow
Member
The 1/12 12z Euro option is gaining some support. The trough is leaning more NW to SE...a strong positive tilt... I see a couple models going for the SW cutoff but that ain't happening with the strength of the southern jet being forecast.
That’s great. My only pause is the Op Euro and AIFS really are backing off on the cold during and just after this. Here in Raleigh, especially, I much preferred the colder suppressed looks from yesterday
GEFS shows plenty of cold air available during the period of interest.
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06z GFS is now sending the Baja cutoff out faster like the CMC has been doing which wasn’t my favorite thing to see but what do I know. Early phase raises heights off the Atlantic but still manages to keep the storm suppressed.
Wedge looks good though. That feature almost looks like a
at this point 
Wedge looks good though. That feature almost looks like a
at this point
On the 0Z GFS, the Baja wave is a separate feature that doesn't phase. It's a classic Miller-A look and a winning solution if it can stick around. I'm not a massive fan of the 06Z GFS because it does phase and dig into the SW pumping the SE Ridge. Mixing issues would likely correct much worse on the 06z GFS, as the positive heights at 500 MB make it into the SE.
The UKMET digs the wave so much that it gets cut off and probably won't reach the Southeast until after the air mass exits. That said, models tend to incorrectly cut off lows in the Southwest, so I say toss.
I was thinking the same thing, but looking at the previous panels, the s/w is on the move. I like the look better than the Euro's consolidated suppression east-cental CONUS trough.
00z eps really was a decent drop in our area. Hopefully it’ll gain back some traction today. That GEFS run is insane. 
Also not super hyped about the amped up runs at this range but good to see euro and eps suppressed. It’s a fine line
Also not super hyped about the amped up runs at this range but good to see euro and eps suppressed. It’s a fine line
Amped is fine if we get a wave that can deepen. The 06z GFS was ugly at H5 and sorta sheared out even though it wasn't reflected at the surface.00z eps really was a decent drop in our area. Hopefully it’ll gain back some traction today. That GEFS run is insane.
Also not super hyped about the amped up runs at this range but good to see euro and eps suppressed. It’s a fine line
WolfpackHomer91
Member
It’s absolutely hilarious to me that on Twitter the “Novice Engagement farmers” From the MA-NE say this is all a Mid Atlantic - Northeast Pattern and then you read the ones from South it’s a Southern pattern…. lol 
Lots of wishcasting going on by someone they can’t all be right.
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Lots of wishcasting going on by someone they can’t all be right. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
NCWeatherhound
Member
Never thought I'd have a reason to ask ... but could you please provide the outlook for FAY/Fort Liberty? Many thanks!
Miller A Nor’easter and everyone is rightIt’s absolutely hilarious to me that on Twitter the “Novice Engagement farmers” From the MA-NE say this is all a Mid Atlantic - Northeast Pattern and then you read the ones from South it’s a Southern pattern…. lol
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Everyone is keying on different waves. We can all score in this window but it come from 3 different pieces of energy at different times
Makeitsnow
Member
Just looking at the particulars..its ridiculous. Surface temps in teens in NC, near 20 in ga...925mb temps of -10 or lower down in to ga, 8mb pressure gradient across ga, 40 knot boundary layer winds, and surface winds gusting greater than 20 knots..would be epic. Unfortunately the wrong kind of epic in south ga/sc...that much wind with 2 to 3 inches of freezing rain and it would look like helene again afterwards..what trees that are left would he gone. Just unreal stuff if it verified.
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Decent shot at challenging some record low maxes next week
NCWeatherhound
Member
Ugh! Begins as light snow in the Sandhills at 186, then mixes snow/sleet, then ... sleet for the rest of the event.
Did I mention I hate sleet?
And the 06Z really does an ice number on folks south of ATL in GA.
Did I mention I hate sleet?
And the 06Z really does an ice number on folks south of ATL in GA.
One thing I love showing up about this storm is the classical CAD feature. Been a long time
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You wanna talk about rates
? Almost 12" falls in Charlotte in six hours then an inch of sleet on top of it.
One thing a lot of folks dont remember about 1988 is it ended as sleet.
? Almost 12" falls in Charlotte in six hours then an inch of sleet on top of it.One thing a lot of folks dont remember about 1988 is it ended as sleet.
New AIFS run.. 
exactly where we want it 
exactly where we want it 
packfan98
Moderator
Ok, y'all are getting me excited. It would be great to get a storm like this just as the high pressure is sliding in place. It has been a long time. Timing is always everything and every detail matters, but this is our best shot at a major event.You wanna talk about rates
You are absolutely right. 1988 ended as sleet for several hours and helped keep the ground fully snow covered for two weeks after.You wanna talk about rates
One thing a lot of folks dont remember about 1988 is it ended as sleet.
iGRXY
Member
wake up to 8 new pages I knew something good had happened and man did it ever. I haven’t looked in detail to the H5 setup yet but just seeing the board I’ll remind everyone of a couple of things:
1. The SER does typical trend stronger the closer to verification. Now we need some SER as that’s the forcing mechanism to get WAA and overrunning like this setup appears to be. It’s just a straddle between just enough and not too much.
2. A 1045 high would absolutely get the job done but the odds that it’s that strong isn’t realistic. Now the good news is typical CADs are usually 1030-1033mb. This one has serious cold air to work with and I definitely see it being stronger than your typical CAD high. But 1035-1040 is a lot more realistic to me. But again that would be more than enough to get sub freezing surface layer cold well south and the closer you get to traditional CAD areas the colder the mid layers would be to support snow vs ice.
3. Overrunning always trends NW in the final 12-48 hours. Not necessarily with the LP track always but with the precip shield.
This setup I do like a lot more vs last week because this is a legit arctic airmass that has some staying power. This has the making of a traditional statewide frozen storm for NC/SC and most of Georgia especially. When we luck into get super cold CADs we all do very well 7/10x.
1. The SER does typical trend stronger the closer to verification. Now we need some SER as that’s the forcing mechanism to get WAA and overrunning like this setup appears to be. It’s just a straddle between just enough and not too much.
2. A 1045 high would absolutely get the job done but the odds that it’s that strong isn’t realistic. Now the good news is typical CADs are usually 1030-1033mb. This one has serious cold air to work with and I definitely see it being stronger than your typical CAD high. But 1035-1040 is a lot more realistic to me. But again that would be more than enough to get sub freezing surface layer cold well south and the closer you get to traditional CAD areas the colder the mid layers would be to support snow vs ice.
3. Overrunning always trends NW in the final 12-48 hours. Not necessarily with the LP track always but with the precip shield.
This setup I do like a lot more vs last week because this is a legit arctic airmass that has some staying power. This has the making of a traditional statewide frozen storm for NC/SC and most of Georgia especially. When we luck into get super cold CADs we all do very well 7/10x.
How close does that come into to Raleigh?
Having a 1045 high in place over snowpack is a game changer for sure!