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Wintry January 21-23 2025

iGRXY said:
I promise you don't want to see the tweaks happening yet. This needs to stay right where it is another 3 days at least IMO
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Last week we had snow in central florida around this range. Need to keep it buried. I want people complaining “we finally got good cold and we lose the storm smhhh” some time
in the next 48 hours. That’s how you know to change the generator plugs
 
SD said:
With the WAR becoming an increasing real feature suppression becomes less of a concern. Mjo would favor the cold down the plains into tx this further leads to the idea of some type of WAR response. Again the concern here is NW or miller B not suppression imo. I also still like the idea of trying to late bloom a coastal when this whole pattern is on its way out.
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If the WAR response is warranted, when do you think it will start showing up on modeling? The GEM suite seems to be indicating that it's present with its inland frozen solutions. When do you think the other globals will catch on?
 
iGRXY said:
I promise you don't want to see the tweaks happening yet. This needs to stay right where it is another 3 days at least IMO
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Yeah all I want to see right now is a big, fat, wide ball of cold sitting across the conus that’s not high-tailing it out of here. The rest would likely take care of itself
 
weatherfide said:
If the WAR response is warranted, when do you think it will start showing up on modeling? The GEM suite seems to be indicating that it's present with its inland frozen solutions. When do you think the other globals will catch on?
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Too many details to iron out right now with the track and strength of the low. We are several days out for that kind of specificity.
 
Mitch West said:
Yeh the ICON definitely went in a better direction. She was loading up something there in the Gulf.
View attachment 163306
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ICON is almost purely onshore flow moisture over SE Texas and SW Louisiana... inverted trough look well deep from the SW Gulf into the Bay of Campeche. What it looked like at 500mb earlier (around the 19th-20th) was trough orientation was more neutral and may have pulled the GFS wave across faster, and the one behind it was squashed too much to do much on this run (and hence, slower to evolve).
 
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