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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
BKWRN29
Member
It is accounting for everything the radar shows to make it to the ground…. My house is covered on radar but it’s not snowing.
connorsclimate
Member
I actually think this is a relatively decent forecast. The amounts aren’t far off of what we are estimating
chase223322
Member
I know nothing but the live radar of the storm seems to show it on a direct path to NE GA / W NC but all of the projections show it going way south east of that trajectory. What causes that?
Last edited:
RollTide18
Member
Big flakes now! And it’s coming down
well a dew point of 3 ain't helping
packfan98
Moderator
Not sure. I don't discount any of them. I don't put too much weight in the hrrr after about hour 6 or so. It changes as the lead times get closer.
weather bubba
Member
This is a good forecast for the Carolinas. I am really feeling good about the potential this system has now based on the observations seen in the Deep South so far. Hopefully some areas will get even more with the banding you mentioned.
connorsclimate
Member
A lot of it is the timing of the storm and moisture available. We may have a slowing down of the storm or dryer air moving in soon. That’s what we are watching for
It’s already snowed with extremely light radar returns with dews in the single digits. So yeh..
Ron Burgundy
Member
WolfpackHomer91
Member
I mean NAM, GFS, RAP all still look solid for I-85 for now atleast in NC ... so idk Like Mitch says theyre probably all useless at this moment lol
mjscott30
Member
Tiny little flakes here in MTGY.
Belle Lechat
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11AM
22/4
22/4
I would figure for areas centered on I-20 and slight north if that moisture back in Alabama could stay together and deepen moving across AL/GA and some of these out in front could help moisten the column and raise Dew Points it could do something but grasping here
Thor
Member
Just unreal seeing the sleet line so far off Lousiana with heavy returns headed towards New Orleans. Not something any of us expected to witness this year. Hope everyone down there is soaking this one in.
RollTide18
Member
My view right now
chapelhillwx
Member
From a coworker in Gretna, LA south of New Orleans. He says significantly more has accumulated since he took this 30 min ago.
chapelhillwx
Member
Models account for dry air in QPF outputs.
Models account for dry air in QPF outputs.
Models account for dry air in QPF outputs.
Models account for dry air in QPF outputs.
Models account for dry air in QPF outputs.
Models account for dry air in QPF outputs.
Models account for dry air in QPF outputs.
I never post, only read and attempt to learn. I would like to share that a few snowflakes are flying around in Augusta, GA, in the vicinity of I-520 and Hwy 25.
BKWRN29
Member
Well…If it’s accurate then why isn’t it snowing?
to get the amount the gfs suggests in my area we would need to be seeing what the radar is suggesting.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Not at my work, maybe I can ask my parents.
It's funny because I figured I'd give a good look with these returns as they look good aaannnnddd nothing this time. There were worse returns earlier with a full blown light flizzard.
Because “Model” projection and radar are totally separate!Well…If it’s accurate then why isn’t it snowing?
connorsclimate
Member
New HRRR projection for NC piedmont region is looking great
Flo
Member
Radar shows it coming towards Columbia. We’ll find out soon enough.
JQPublic
Member
Shouldn’t they be seeing more than that with frontogenesis?
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1120 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1107 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025
This morning the main question has been where will the dry air win out. We are doing an 18z sounding to get a better picture of this line and will have more of an update as that comes in. Currently there is a deep layer of dry air at 850mb but our dendritic growth zone is almost saturated at this point. We have been receiving reports of flurries despite this and are seeing a potential moisture surge coming in from Alabama. This along with the 12z models coming in gives us a little more confidence that the 850mb layer will moisten up but we will know more with this sounding. Have just slightly upped snowfall totals to account for this trend but only by a couple tenths of an inch. Will keep an eye on that though.
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1120 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1107 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025
This morning the main question has been where will the dry air win out. We are doing an 18z sounding to get a better picture of this line and will have more of an update as that comes in. Currently there is a deep layer of dry air at 850mb but our dendritic growth zone is almost saturated at this point. We have been receiving reports of flurries despite this and are seeing a potential moisture surge coming in from Alabama. This along with the 12z models coming in gives us a little more confidence that the 850mb layer will moisten up but we will know more with this sounding. Have just slightly upped snowfall totals to account for this trend but only by a couple tenths of an inch. Will keep an eye on that though.
Seems most modeling has stopped with the overall NW adjustments for QPF but continue to increase QPF amounts near the back edge. Gonna be some lucky sweet spots under that 700mb fgen, on the NW fringes with the best ratios. I'm with others in thinking that sets up somewhere between US 1 and I-95 in NC. @SD might just jackpot with this one
Belle Lechat
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Update
GarnerNC
Member
Man if you go on TikTok and find some of the people going live down in Southern Louisiana, it is absolutely coming down!
Sctvman
Member
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yeah, I don't think this band that's over the area is doing what it could possibly do if it was just a tick wetter. No biggie since it's supposed to really start later.
Although I did see that Lincoln County is reporting 0.1" of snow already.
Although I did see that Lincoln County is reporting 0.1" of snow already.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This storm is just like the good ol days when we didn’t have a clue what a storm would actually do until the very last second