Avalanche
Member
You’d think that energy on the backside would tilt the axis a nudge
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Love seeing all the unmodeled snow over central TX already
gawxnative
Member
GDOT had to treat the "North Georgia Roads Sunday in order to have resources to treat the South GA roads which also they could not start until after the rains yesterday PM ended there.
TheBetterDoge
Member
Cary_Snow95
Member
That’s my thought too. The more energy dropping down the back is really helping to turn it over
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Until models actually see/initialize the moisture and latent heat release in the warm, moist conveyor belt upstream near verification, this trend probably keeps on going lol
Snowfall Forecast Contest Update:
@NW GA Fan has graciously contributed another $25 to the pot. Pot total is now $125. Winner take all.
Forecast deadline is tomorrow morning at 9AM Eastern
Link to the contest thread: https://southernwx.com/community/threads/griteater-snowfall-contest-2-0.1372/
@NW GA Fan has graciously contributed another $25 to the pot. Pot total is now $125. Winner take all.
Forecast deadline is tomorrow morning at 9AM Eastern
Link to the contest thread: https://southernwx.com/community/threads/griteater-snowfall-contest-2-0.1372/
Anybody got any clue what ratios might be realistically?
I think realistically we could see 13:1 to 16:1
I was thinking something in that ballpark. I don’t have access to the ratio forecast stuff from modeling
weather bubba
Member
Another jog NW with the Euro and chances are looking good that RDU and places a little farther west like Durham and Chapel Hill might get an inch of snow out of this system.
Look how sharp the southern wave is getting just in 4 cycles on the HRRR, wow ! Can see the increased divergence aloft and the boundary at 850 lifting NW 
ajr
Member
What do we think the upside scenario is if trends continue for central NC? 1-2” max or is there an even bigger upside potential here?
weathernerds.org has some of the best snowfall maps (using dynamic ratio)
Link to explanation: https://weathernerds.org/models/field_definitions/Snowfall.pdf
Tsappfrog20
Member
I think that the NWS will issue a WWA tomorrow for the Raleigh area for 1-3 inches just a gut feeling
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
weather bubba
Member
If the positive trends continue, I think at least an inch might be a good bet for much of Central North Carolina from Durham County west. Counties like Johnston and Harnett might get 2 inches in spots.
rburrel2
Member
Sure looks like virga is about to reach the ground and bust out snowing in the Dallas area right now. Don't think any model had qpf falling within 100 miles of there?
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Tsappfrog20
Member
Not sure if this was shared or not but the hurricane hunters are in the gulf sampling the winter storm
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
TheBetterDoge
Member
HRRR (top) v obs (bottom)
It looks like to me that HRRR is overdoing the dry air across SE TX/LA and even ahead across MS
Seems to be something the HRRR does routinely actually
Agreed they may pull the trigger on the WWA tomorrow morning ( if current trends persist), but I think they would keep it 1-2 inches.
I doubt they'll do it tonight though. And if they do issue WWAs, I'm interested to see how far NW they go.
Makeitsnow
Member
Quite a few mpings across LA already
TheBetterDoge
Member
I know that HRRR has a tendency to overmix the boundary layer with severe set-ups, but I didnt know it also does during wintertime set-ups. It's something to note which would impact the northern extent of the precip shield.
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
Ground truth to radar as far east as Alexandria LA. per mping. Dew points from single digits to low teens. I didn't expect that!
Northeast Texas precip building fast on weather underground Radar. Precip/moisture moving NE more than east right now.
Northeast Texas precip building fast on weather underground Radar. Precip/moisture moving NE more than east right now.
Last edited:
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 3,512
- Reaction score
- 5,423
Sure looks like that donut hole is shrinking quickly. Checking Mping for any ground truth. So far, Hubbard, TX is the farthest north I see any reports of Snow in TX.
Half the members on the EPS with .1” lot more of precip…much much better.
I know it’s kind of sad praying for a tenth but snow is few and far between around here. We sure aren’t New Orleans or Tallahassee…
I know it’s kind of sad praying for a tenth but snow is few and far between around here. We sure aren’t New Orleans or Tallahassee…
Powder keg. Gulf wants to go boom 
Hrrr has the first returns around Louisiana in general around 9, it’s already starting over there lol
albertwilsonjr
Member
The NAM had nowhere near that much precipitation over Texas and Oklahoma
SegTindoPro
Member
To My SC NC South/Central AL/MS/GA/FLA/LA peeps do y’all think it’s gonna over perform in these areas how we feeling??
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Philstorm91
Member
I'm a little surprised to see radar returns over such a wide area so early. Maybe a positive trend for precip rates once the system begins to spread east?
No expert by any means, but there are signals that there can be some surprises in this area.
Keep opening up the gulf 
Out of curiosity, how often do they do that for winter storms?
MichaelJ
Member
I think there is a possibility that Raleigh is back in the game for an inch or 2. If the current trend continues the accumulating snow could get all the way to Burlington, good luck fellas
Storm5
Member
Know someone that lives in SE Oklahoma amd its snowing there
Ron Burgundy
Member
Just had an MPing snow report pop in Denton about 40 miles N of Dallas
You see it sometimes with the big east coast storms