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Wintry January 21-23 2025

Shaggy said:
Rock salt sold out in Wilmington
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Same up here in Surf City.. (along with snow Shovels etc etc/bread/milk & beer)
That said, I'm on the immediate Coast here in Surf City, (Not inland per se, as too where @Shaggy resides, & North of Him about 50~ 60 miles)..
I HOPE..

I'm setting in a *Sweet Spot*, so too speak..

Currently 38F..
Dew Point of.. 13F..

KILM Disco follows..


Dry conditions will hold on until the end of the period, where precip
chances will start to fill in late Tuesday. Spotty snow should start
to fill in by then from the SW, with some low accumulation possible
mainly near the coast.

After a small downward trend in expected snow totals yesterday,
today`s guidance has trended slightly higher. Confidence has thus
grown enough that we are issuing a Winter Storm Watch (warning
criteria being 2") for our coastal counties as well as Williamsburg
and Columbus Counties.
The remainder of the area may need a Winter Weather Advisory but given the lesser lead time and the remaining
uncertainty regarding inland snow held off on that headline for now. A Cold Weather Advisory Advisory will be needed for all zones.
Wednesday will be the coldest day of this arctic shot with highs struggling only into the mid 30s, some 20 degrees
below climo. Went a little below guidance Wednesday night, the assumption being that there will be a little snow cover. Most places, even the beaches should dip into the teens. Our chilly spots with pocosin soil in parts of Bladen and Pender Counties could drop below 10 according to some of the chillier NBM
percentiles. Also didn`t want to go that cold as it will hinge upon how quickly clouds increase, and with how dry it is
guidance may be too fast. There is also a small but non- zero chance for some very light freezing rain along the coast towards the end of the period but once again given how dry the surface
layer will be this seems doubtful.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The wave tilts over and amps a lot more quickly on recent runs in today’s guidance. Lets the warm advection and isentropic upglide run rampant & feedback onto creating even more tilt through LHR/-PVa aloft
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Hey Webb- just curious if you have thoughts on those of us back west in AL/GA? The tilt seems to be mainly benefitting the Carolinas. Or is this a rising tide lifts all boats kinda thing in your opinion

Thanks man!
 
if we can continue getting these BW jumps over the next cycles we could easily get these western should back to the TN/NC border putting those east of there in a very favorable 1-3” type situation. I also like seeing the FGEN Banding on the NAM already setting up on the border also. That supports everywhere east should be over performing on previous. It took time but it finally looks like the FGEN/WAA is finally coming NW. I had all but given up here once models were burying the majority of precip towards the coastline. Figured there would be more on the NW side but it couldn’t make it north of I20. That is clearly out the window now.
 
CaryWx said:
That precip at 700 going to produce some big flakes coming out of the 850s?
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We shall see. If you give the gulf stream a window to "fight back" and prevent the low from scooting quickly out to sea, it will do it. That area off that GA/SC coast has a history of brewing things up there.....but gotta see if the ticks can continue with the wave tilt over the SE, that's the biggest thing I'd say. Still have a touch more time
 
Well, this certainly wasn’t on my Bingo card for this storm at all. I honestly dismissed it and thought nothing of it until now. If things continue to trend the way they are, I have a chance of getting more snow than two weeks ago, which ended up as a mere dusting followed by ice. I genuinely hope we can all get a surprise. We all deserve it. Also, thank you everyone for your detailed analysis. I learn so much from you all!
 
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