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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
NCWeatherhound
Member
This is making the home folks in Hope Mills happy.
beanskip
Member
Check out progression of 540 thickness line on last few runs of RGEM off N.C. coast -- it has moved from offshore to inland.
Yeah, I'm liking the NAM trends at 300mb for the Coastal Plain, the more north-easterly component to that jet the better, it's certainly trending towards being sharper each run. That usually sets up areas around the Albermarle Sound and back towards the SW, which is similar to what the NAM is now showing. I know, grasping at straws, but at-least the model is showing why it's increasing totals in that area.
SegTindoPro
Member
Holy smokes that was almost the exact same lead time too. Wow
Pops
Member
Means nothing I know but radar out in Texas looks more bullish than models show through central texas...I know I know means nothing but something to notice
rburrel2
Member
IIRC, it verified even a little further West than that, correct? It's interesting because that last panel is pretty much at the same time range as the 18z runs are today. I know I got some flurries from that system and my notes say Spartanburg got an inch.
Brent
Member
astroworld123
Member
yes it did I believe. We had very heavy snow in CNC a few hours after it started
beanskip
Member
Both new RGEM and ICON significantly ease off on the QPF for N. Florida/SE Georgia.
I would be a little surprised if this performs as well as 2022 for CNC. At least the RGEM had some decent clown maps at this lead, we may just be hunting a 1” event around here whereas before it seemed a dusting would be the best case
packfan98
Moderator
I saw a mid Atlantic met mention in the post storm model analysis from yesterday’s storm that the actual frotogenesis band setup 30 miles further north than all of the models. Do you see something similar happening for us, or is the placement a bit of a wild card?
SegTindoPro
Member
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Yes back towards the foothills ended up with 1 inch. CLT got 2 and I got 2.7
Yep. Chose those panels because that was the exact lead time as this setup, where we starting seeing drastic shifts west, and columns getting more moist
The NAM painted a similar area with 6”+ at 18z, I think. Gotta love a model moving a spot from a coating to 6”+ of snow in six hours at a <D2 lead.
Tsappfrog20
Member
If you notice there is a smaller one that moves through and the NW trend doesn’t appear to be so we might be in a good spot
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I got about .5" for the 2022 -21/22 storm in the Southern foothills.
I'm expecting the national weather service center from Columbia to issue atleast winter weather advisories for the I-20 corridor around Augusta and Columbia within the next couple of hours. Models are trending towards atleast a light event if not more.
If they're smart, they will wait until 3AM, if not 12z tomorrow or so.
All these years watching good snows in Wake county lost by only county to the NW trend, you would think we might finally get a county bump in our favor?
Pops
Member
Boy that little sliver through north mississipi on hrr has me interested...grasping..lol
astroworld123
Member
One can hope. If this busts and only eastern NC cashes in it’s gonna feel worse than yesterday. Hope we all get it
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah a lot of times that’s because the low to mid level frontogenesis occurs below the snow growth zone. By the time it’s lifted into the column, it’s advected upward & downstream towards colder air. Hence the horizontal displacement
WolfpackHomer91
Member
FWIW where this still shows zilch .... at 10PM that night I had 1.5" On the ground in Mooresville and Stanly county got 2-3"
TreyAustin
Member
Hello everyone. I have waited awhile to make my first call for Raleigh on this system. However, now that we are finally seeing the northwest trend, I am, at this time, placing Raleigh in a 60% probability for 1-2 inches of snow. Stay tuned!
snowlover91
Member
Check out the 3km NAM IR trend.
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Not sure if this has much bearing on the situation, but right now, in Kansas, it is pouring snow when they were forecast to only have a light snow shower or a dusting at best. I have a friend there reporting giant flakes and accumulating snow. There is a ton of moisture in the northern branch, too.
BKWRN29
Member
This thread seems to be nothing but wishcasting atp. Can anyone explain based on what the models are currently suggesting as to why we could see more moisture/ NW trend? Or a repeat Jan of 2014?
Storms never like to slide off the SE coast without Gulf Stream resistance - but there will be limits to the inland jog
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Tilt, equals more QPF into orientation / column ect. HP weakening allowing slight ticks West instead of bullying the LP into Africa
Tsappfrog20
Member
It’s not so much wish casting but all of the models have an overrunning situation now and the shift of that has been further to the NW on all of the models that have come in recently
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The 18z GFS is rolling. 
Precip is a little further north over TX at hr 6.
Precip is a little further north over TX at hr 6.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Ik it may be banter but so help me god theres gonna be some elated or miserable humans in here in t-minus 15 min. Hopefully it atleast holds. Would love to see 50 miles more expansion N OR WestThe 18z GFS is rolling.
tractor girl
Member
come to mama
