Wintry January 21-23 2025

[Sctvman]

I mean, I know the bulk of the board is on ATL/CLT/RDU/CAE watch (and rightly so), but can we just talk about model after model spitting out 4-6 inches of snow for Destin?

The most snow TLH has ever received since humankind began recording snow is 2.8 inches -- the GFS just almost doubled that.

A foot near New Orleans -- this is crazy one-in-a-lifetime stuff.

Ice in Jacksonville too. and further south

 

[Stormsfury]

A couple of more ticks like this and we have something more than flizzard duty in the northern fringes.
View attachment 165801

Shots fired. The Baja Feature and the northern stream has a little more separation and maybe trying to allow the northern stream to work a little bit here.

 

[superjames1992]

6z
View attachment 165793

12z
View attachment 165794

A 1” liquid equivalent winter storm in Tallahassee is unthinkable, and yet we might be about to see it.

 

[chapelhillwx]

I’m so hyped for TLH, Destin, Pensacola, etc. I have a buddy in Bainbridge which is in extreme SW GA. Hope they get smoked.

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

I’m also gonna throw in February 2010 as well. Many areas of the SC upstate and NC southern Piedmont went from a chance of flurries to a 2-5” snowfall in less than 24 hours.

That was a "S CLT only event" Went to Outback with my parents and it started snowing like Hell in Concord and they upgraded to a winter storm warning from nothing. Nice find

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

I mean, I know the bulk of the board is on ATL/CLT/RDU/CAE watch (and rightly so), but can we just talk about model after model spitting out 4-6 inches of snow for Destin?

The most snow TLH has ever received since humankind began recording snow is 2.8 inches -- the GFS just almost doubled that.

A foot near New Orleans -- this is crazy one-in-a-lifetime stuff.

The record snowfall in New Orleans was 5 inches in 1895. 3-4.5 inches fell on New Years Eve 1963. I was the kid lighting firecrackers in the 63 snow.

This storm has a great chance to set the all-time record in N.O. and surrounding areas!

 

[ForsythSnow]

H5 looks to be tilting better. I had a feeling once we cleared that pacific low we would know what's going down

 

[rburrel2]

MORE!!!!!

 

[KyloG]

Literally a couple more ticks like this next 24 hours it could be widespread 2-3" in many places

 

[Chazwin]

I mean, I know the bulk of the board is on ATL/CLT/RDU/CAE watch (and rightly so), but can we just talk about model after model spitting out 4-6 inches of snow for Destin?

The most snow TLH has ever received since humankind began recording snow is 2.8 inches -- the GFS just almost doubled that.

A foot near New Orleans -- this is crazy one-in-a-lifetime stuff.

Having family that lives in that area I can tell you that it will absolutely shut that area down. The December 1989 storm put down 2-3” across that area and roads were a skating rink for several days. None of those towns or counties have salt available so the best they can do is laying down sand on the roads to help with traction.

 

[griteater]

The euro has been locked in to this for a while a now. Not shocked every model is slowly finding its way to where it’s been.

Yeah agree....ever since this converged on a crappy 500mb look, the Euro has had the best of the crappy looks

 

[accu35]

Is that gulf low on the 12z gfs further north then from the other runs?

 

[CobraMedic]

Literally a couple more ticks like this next 24 hours it could be widespread 2-3" in many places

View attachment 165813

That's a huge shift.

 

[Stormsfury]

Literally a couple more ticks like this next 24 hours it could be widespread 2-3" in many places

View attachment 165813

Two things going on here. Separation of Baja Feature and the Alberta Bowling Ball Slowed down ..

 

[Arcc]

View attachment 165780
Doesn’t look like a decrease to me

I should have clarified. For us in central AL it was.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

I should have clarified. For us in central AL it was.

Kind of looks like an increase in the Southeast/East Central part of AL near the GA border.

 

[tractor girl]

How in the world is GFS suggesting 1" of snow. I pulled a sounding from around the 1 mark in NE GA, the dew and air temp lines are far apart no saturation in DGZ, so there should be no snow (?)

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

The crazy uncle is ticking north too.

 

[Chazwin]

That was a "S CLT only event" Went to Outback with my parents and it started snowing like Hell in Concord and they upgraded to a winter storm warning from nothing. Nice find

I remember that on Thursday afternoon GSP added a chance of flurries to my forecast on Friday night. By their late evening update the had changed to a 40% chance of light snow, then by the Friday morning update issued a WWA for 1-2” , but by late morning upgraded to a WSW for 2-5”. The snow started here just after 4 and the ground was covered in 20 minutes

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

MORE!!!!!
View attachment 165811

You can tell what its doing at 500 level too.... look at the tilt

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

How in the world is GFS suggesting 1" of snow. I pulled a sounding from around the 1 mark in NE GA, the dew and air temp lines are far apart no saturation in DGZ, so there should be no snow (?)

View attachment 165816

View attachment 165815

That's the sounding this AM

 

[SSGa]

I mean, I know the bulk of the board is on ATL/CLT/RDU/CAE watch (and rightly so), but can we just talk about model after model spitting out 4-6 inches of snow for Destin?

The most snow TLH has ever received since humankind began recording snow is 2.8 inches -- the GFS just almost doubled that.

A foot near New Orleans -- this is crazy one-in-a-lifetime stuff.

Yes! This could be one for the ages. Good luck!!

 

[Snow_chaser]

Having family that lives in that area I can tell you that it will absolutely shut that area down. The December 1989 storm put down 2-3” across that area and roads were a skating rink for several days. None of those towns or counties have salt available so the best they can do is laying down sand on the roads to help with traction.

Well atleast they have plenty of sand from the beaches they can spread on the roads lol. Seriously tho, I’ve got family in Foley Al and are beyond excited

 

[Chazwin]

How in the world is GFS suggesting 1" of snow. I pulled a sounding from around the 1 mark in NE GA, the dew and air temp lines are far apart no saturation in DGZ, so there should be no snow (?)

View attachment 165816

View attachment 165815

You realize that’s the sounding from this morning?

 

[Forevertothee]

You can tell what its doing at 500 level too.... look at the tilt

Glad you mentioned this. I noticed the tilt too and that would translate nicely for the Upstate and Midlands, Atl and possibly much of Central/East NC.

 

[rburrel2]

For this to be a north trend, the 12z euro needs to shift north a little bit. Otherwise, I view this as just everything coming in to line with the Euro.

If we get the the euro to tick north, we may not be done trending. Just my opinion.

 

[NCWeatherhound]

IT's a crazy world when there's more snow in the Okefenokee than ATL ... but here we are.

 

[Mitch West]

The GEFS is an increase also it's just taking a decade to run. I'll post shortly

 

[CaryWx]

another jump by the 12z euro would spark many on this board

 

[Mitch West]

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

Glad you mentioned this. I noticed the tilt too and that would translate nicely for the Upstate and Midland and Atl and possible much of Central/East NC.

should also assist in a slightly better fetch of QPF if it cant tilt further

 

[superjames1992]

At this point, I’m half expecting a weenie NAM’ing in the next few runs that somehow drops 2-4” for ATL/GSP/CLT/RDU and raises expectations out of whack only for disappointment to follow.

 

[jackendrickwx]

GEFS losing it now slowly inching QPF back in last 3-4 runs

 

[Mitch West]

Final run

 

[KyloG]

ARPGE magic....2-3" for 95-85 with ratios

 

[NCWeatherhound]

For this to be a north trend, the 12z euro needs to shift north a little bit. Otherwise, I view this as just everything coming in to line with the Euro.

If we get the the euro to tick north, we may not be done trending. Just my opinion.

Agreed. If the Euro holds serve or ... Lord help us ... ticks back south, this is less a trend than it is consolidation.
We shall see.

 

[KyloG]

Agreed. If the Euro holds serve or ... Lord help us ... ticks back south, this is less a trend than it is consolidation.
We shall see.

Euro for last weeks events had RDU with .2-.25 precip...it recorded .51".

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

ive read through here.... however can someone explain in more detail about possible changes in Baja/N-stream ect and how it may be changing ? @Stormsfury @Mitch West @griteater @KyloG. I understand tilt and such but maybe someone is like me and halfway knows what to look at but not 100%

 

[Parker]

ARPGE magic....2-3" for 95-85 with ratios

View attachment 165827

Damn, I’ve never seen this model before but that looks magical.

 

[packfan98]

I wonder if we can get the UKMET to play? It’s been really stubborn.