Wintry January 21-23 2025

[WolfpackHomer91]

I went back and looked ....this is a spitting image not of 2014, but of Jan 2022. I found a radar image i took screenshot of that morning vs an hrrr run ....the model had jack over 50 miles to its NW low was way out in the Gulf as this is, but radar had qpf all the way to upstate and middle GA. I ended up with 1.5" that night. "out of nowhere" bc in last 12hrs it had a mindof its own. Same setup and all it looks so similar on models then vs now looking back

 

[jrips27]

 

[weatherfide]

I went back and looked ....this is a spitting image not of 2014, but of Jan 2022. I found a radar image i took screenshot of that morning vs an hrrr run ....the model had jack over 50 miles to its NW low was way out in the Gulf as this is, but radar had qpf all the way to upstate and middle GA. I ended up with 1.5" that night. "out of nowhere" bc in last 12hrs it had a mindof its own. Same setup and all it looks so similar on models then vs now looking back

Does anyone have the soundings for the 1/28/2014 event?

 

[griteater]

I mean some areas from nothing to 2" in one run, this has to be a meteorologist nightmare

View attachment 165753

Well it's about to be YOUR nightmare because we have a new snowfall forecast thread up and running!

$100 to the winner

Sites for the contest:
New Orleans, LA (MSY) – “money site” for this contest – a new twist
Mobile, AL (MOB)
Augusta, GA (AGS)
Charleston, SC (CHS)
Greenville, NC (PGV)

Link to the contest thread: https://southernwx.com/community/threads/griteater-snowfall-contest-2-0.1372/

 

[Rain Cold]

I don't like the NAM as much as the next guy, but I would think it's onto something, depicting an expansion to the NW. It's probably not done.

Central SC and NC could end up with an inch with a dusting back to the Triad and just east of the Upstate to CLT.

 

[KyloG]

GFS impressive

 

[DopplerWx]

I know it’s the gfs but improved slightly at 36

 

[Mitch West]

Well it's about to be YOUR nightmare because we have a new snowfall forecast thread up and running!

$100 to the winner

Sites for the contest:
New Orleans, LA (MSY) – “money site” for this contest – a new twist
Mobile, AL (MOB)
Augusta, GA (AGS)
Charleston, SC (CHS)
Greenville, NC (PGV)

Link to the contest thread: https://southernwx.com/community/threads/griteater-snowfall-contest-2-0.1372/

Throw CAE in there man. I wanna see folks opinions

 

[DopplerWx]

Woah now

 

[KyloG]

GFS trends...ATL to CAE look interesting

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Well, it has begun.

 

[DopplerWx]

 

[DopplerWx]

6z


12z

 

[griteater]

Throw CAE in there man. I wanna see folks opinions

Wanted to get a GA city in there. I'm going with Augusta = Columbia for amounts

 

[jrips27]

*Gulp*

 

[CobraMedic]

6z
View attachment 165793

12z
View attachment 165794

Keep on creeping up. Some good NW trends.

 

[KyloG]

Impressive

 

[DopplerWx]

Just saying this is similar to Jan 22, all of a sudden nam shifted west inside 48 and it didn’t stop until zero hour

 

[RBR71]

We really doing this?

 

[tractor girl]

choo choo all abord the FV3 and GFS

 

[AJ1013]

Impressive

View attachment 165797

If this turns out to be anything close to what's being modeled it will be FL's biggest snowstorm in history. Current state record is 4.0" I believe.

 

[Mahomeless]

Woah now

A lot of virga

 

[Parker]

*Gulp*
View attachment 165795

Impressive

View attachment 165797

Um that’s pretty substantial. Need to trend it this way up until verification but I’d be on alert around and south of Birmingham

 

[Mitch West]

Oh... lawd... Is she? comin?

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

A couple of more ticks like this and we have something more than flizzard duty in the northern fringes.

 

[CaryWx]

suddenly this has my attention a bit again

 

[DopplerWx]

Oh... lawd... Is she? comin?
View attachment 165800

If I’m in a s ga I’m salivating rn. Beautiful trends. And that tongue of precip up to Columbia

 

[Chazwin]

The NAM's always underdue the NW extent of precip...as is would expect .1" to get almost to 85

View attachment 165782

That would make sense as it would actually line up with the 0z EURO. That dry air though showing at 875mb, if that’s correct I just don’t see how the column saturates enough

 

[YVille1128]

There's no stopping this NW train. She'll be in Seattle by 12z tomorrow.

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

Wishcasting..... But HISTORY would tell us virga or not....this area ive shaded HISTORICALLY would be what radar looked like verbatim in this pic. I dont think this is an exxageration either i didnt include mountains ect

 

[WEATHERBOYROY]

satellite and radar better!

 

[Ross]

Feel like this always happens after I throw dirt on something

 

[rburrel2]

The euro has been locked in to this for a while a now. Not shocked every model is slowly finding its way to where it’s been.

 

[KyloG]

View attachment 165804
Wishcasting..... But HISTORY would tell us virga or not....this area ive shaded HISTORICALLY would be what radar looked like verbatim in this pic

The 3km NAM was the warning shot...its always to sting with the NW extent of the precip...assuming today's run is correct.

 

[beanskip]

I mean, I know the bulk of the board is on ATL/CLT/RDU/CAE watch (and rightly so), but can we just talk about model after model spitting out 4-6 inches of snow for Destin?

The most snow TLH has ever received since humankind began recording snow is 2.8 inches -- the GFS just almost doubled that.

A foot near New Orleans -- this is crazy one-in-a-lifetime stuff.

 

[WEATHERBOYROY]

starting to get ground truth snow pings down to OKC!

 

[ForsythSnow]

GFS trends...ATL to CAE look interesting

View attachment 165790

That's a pretty big moisture surge. I think FFC was onto something

 

[Rain Cold]

We really doing this?
View attachment 165799

Been waiting on this. I'm surprised it took this long to see an expansion back west. It probably will continue to slowly increase.

 

[Chazwin]

Just saying this is similar to Jan 22, all of a sudden nam shifted west inside 48 and it didn’t stop until zero hour

I’m also gonna throw in February 2010 as well. Many areas of the SC upstate and NC southern Piedmont went from a chance of flurries to a 2-5” snowfall in less than 24 hours.

 

[jrips27]

I mean, I know the bulk of the board is on ATL/CLT/RDU/CAE watch (and rightly so), but can we just talk about model after model spitting out 4-6 inches of snow for Destin?

The most snow TLH has ever received since humankind began recording snow is 2.8 inches -- the GFS just almost doubled that.

A foot near New Orleans -- this is crazy one-in-a-lifetime stuff.

I hope you score so big man! Yall deserve it down there on the coast.