Keep them high pressures moving in that direction. Back the leading high into Ohio and the other into Iowa
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Thanks. I'm not even looking anymore besides what's posted here. I might look in the morning to see how much LA is getting. That's kind of interesting to me.
This is a very valid point. And really think this has to be why. Along with the other post about being a major population center. Atlanta has grown so much since even 2014.
Kuchera clown
I’ll keep looking at this one till it’s go time prolly. Not necessarily for mby but a pretty rare event for many. NOLA, Mobile, panhandle FL, SAV, CHS, ILM. Happy for those folks, I’d be over the moon if I lived there
Idk how confident I should feel here. Still think freezing rain/nothing is in play
A lot of winners there
Much improved
Yea I still think we’re in this thing from bham
South to ATL and s
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SEVERAL BIG DOGS FOR US IN CENTRAL BAMA
Much improved
snowlover91
Member
00z ARPEGE model a significant improvement with the 5h look vs the 18z run.
GEFS mean trend
RAP current and last run. Trending south with the low, but slightly expanded precip shield.
I know this storm isn't done yet, but this quote from HM from January 2018 shows us that this is a lesson that we all learned and forgot. Phasing rarely ever works out
IVE BEEN FLOODED SO MANY TIMES. ILL TAKE ANY IT WANTS TO GIVE ME. .5" - 3 FOOT
Agreed. And in the beginning, that's why this one looked so promising to me. It was getting left alone and it's why I thought ensembles would pick up on it. Initially that was the case, the phasing did ruin it.
WarEagle22
Member
That actually shows a decent amount of members for central Bama, GA, and SC. That was an uptick. Not getting my hopes back up though lol. I won't complain if I see an inch or so though.
Much improved
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
Bring us the goods! Here's to waking up go 10 new pages and good trends for all!
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Well I wish my area was in on this one but I am excited for a buddy of mine who lives near Pensacola. His daughter has never seen snow and I am hoping they get some to play in. That would be awesome for them.
tlokpmalone
Member
how do you see the precipitation type for the ensemble members on the college of dupage site? i can see the type of precip on my phone but can only see the precip accumulation on my computer.
Euro is worse. We might be cooked gang
WolfpackHomer91
Member
It actually broadens the Tiny amounts in NC lol back to 321. I’m not arguing with you by the way, just looks as if it took some off the 18Z in the main band placement looks maybe 20-25 miles Different nothing crazy
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accu35
Member
- Joined
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Looks little better for my area.
NAVGEM was better with the southern part and precip was better into GA but it quickly dropped of into SC…but it’s the navgem
Someone needs to archive this in the Hall of Fail.
6z Gfs shifted west.
Tokenfreak
Member
Looking like less and less accumulation here in the low country.
Official forecast from NWS Charleston
Official forecast from NWS Charleston
WELL THIS ABOUT SUMS IT UP FOR US PPL IN CENTRAL ALABAMA.....
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
351 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025
Winter weather remains forecast for portions of Central Alabama
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as a low pressure system
develops in the western Gulf and moisture overruns a front along
the northern Gulf. Guidance remains conflicted as to whether this
low will remain closed off, or devolve into an open wave surface
trough as it moves east. Either way, newly available hi-res
guidance is suggesting our snow chances are dwindling near the
I-20 corridor and are clustering snow accumulations farther south
near US Hwy 80 and I-85. Various forecast soundings near I-20
depict dry air below 700 mb which will cause sublimation through
descent without some increase in moisture and lift. Furthermore,
it appears best frontogenesis will establish south of our
forecast area, somewhere just north of I-10. Thus, PoPs have
decreased and shifted south, and QPF has been decreased as well.
I`ve maintained fairly high PoPs across the south where forecast
soundings depict better saturation through the column, including
saturation in the DGZ and collocated negative omega values. Areas
south still have 40-60% probability of receiving 1" or more of
snow which would cause big impacts to travel considering forecast
temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Arguments can
be made that even light snow accumulations could cause big
problems as well, as history has proven. We`ll be making headline
changes shortly, likely upgrading portions of the watch area to a
warning.
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
351 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025
Winter weather remains forecast for portions of Central Alabama
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as a low pressure system
develops in the western Gulf and moisture overruns a front along
the northern Gulf. Guidance remains conflicted as to whether this
low will remain closed off, or devolve into an open wave surface
trough as it moves east. Either way, newly available hi-res
guidance is suggesting our snow chances are dwindling near the
I-20 corridor and are clustering snow accumulations farther south
near US Hwy 80 and I-85. Various forecast soundings near I-20
depict dry air below 700 mb which will cause sublimation through
descent without some increase in moisture and lift. Furthermore,
it appears best frontogenesis will establish south of our
forecast area, somewhere just north of I-10. Thus, PoPs have
decreased and shifted south, and QPF has been decreased as well.
I`ve maintained fairly high PoPs across the south where forecast
soundings depict better saturation through the column, including
saturation in the DGZ and collocated negative omega values. Areas
south still have 40-60% probability of receiving 1" or more of
snow which would cause big impacts to travel considering forecast
temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Arguments can
be made that even light snow accumulations could cause big
problems as well, as history has proven. We`ll be making headline
changes shortly, likely upgrading portions of the watch area to a
warning.
Honestly, I think they will moving this back west some by later today.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
6 run trend of the GFS
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Wow. We still got another 24 hrs for ticks NW. I think maybe this is the start.
6 run trend of the GFS
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Downeastnc
Member
Hell I got 36 hrs to go...if it was showing 8-12" that would be an eternity for a bad trend to snatch it away, sadly it rarely goes the other way.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
6 run trend of the GFS
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To me looks like the southern piece of energy is amplifying a bit causing a better QPF response upstream or a incremental increase of moisture inland.
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4 run trend off the GEFS.
I know a lot of people in here have checked out.. Mentally I kinda have also (expectation wise) but I am going to keep posting because many in here still have a shot to get a little snow that rarely ever see it.
I know a lot of people in here have checked out.. Mentally I kinda have also (expectation wise) but I am going to keep posting because many in here still have a shot to get a little snow that rarely ever see it.
Downeastnc
Member
Just need it to do this further west and a lot more lol.
To me looks like the southern piece of energy is amplifying a bit causing a better QPF response upstream or a incremental increase of moisture inland.
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