NCSNOW
Member
Fv3 is a beaut hr 49-53 in NC in pictures only. Prob virga
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
The low levels are incredibly dry. Likely would have snow falling in mid levels but would evaporate in lower levels before reaching the surface.
Still going
Just wait until we start getting MPAS in range
NCSNOW
Member
Mixing for far south coastal guys. Nam sends main surface low south toward keys and pops another off se coast. Think its off at h5 , so id discount
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yeah, that's a beautiful radar, but this sounding here bugs me and the dewpoints have pretty much wetbulbed down...
Sheesh. Low levels so dry 
Snowing at the homestead.
Well light snow, steady flurries.
Well light snow, steady flurries.
Finally much more realistic, almost time to put this one out of it's misery.... at least I'll get to bed early and get some sleep tonight lol
Convinced this thing is based on prior model runs now…the lag is so pronounced both ways.
BKWRN29
Member
Is this a short term model?
So we see the trough change a little bit in a few runs tonight and throwing more signaturs of precip further N a little...
If that continues and then maybe the qpf is undermodeled then thats how NW sections win and furthet to east
If that continues and then maybe the qpf is undermodeled then thats how NW sections win and furthet to east
Mahomeless
Member
QPF would have to be EXTREMELY under modeled to overcome the lower levels.
9" jackpot of the night is Houma Louisiana. 
Actually we know it is lol there basically a 6 hr lag. If the 0z suite tonight magically improved the next run would look better. It has to let all model data run before it can calculate it's final output
snowlover91
Member
ICON came in a little better again.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
6" in Pensacola and Destin !
WxBlue
Meteorologist
I was able to get a little more information about NBM. It is taking account for previous iterations into its output so that's what it was slow to adjust to suppression. It wasn't supposed to knee-jerk to sudden shifts.
Hard to believe 36-48 hours out and this is the difference between the RGEM and euro.
Euro has entire state of SC with some sort of winter weather and RGEM has virtually none.
Euro has entire state of SC with some sort of winter weather and RGEM has virtually none.
Sctvman
Member
Won’t take but 50 miles spread in the low to go from a I-95 east only storm to the entire state getting involved.
Even with the freezing rain on our forecasts you don’t have to go far from under an inch on Folly to 3” on James Island. That’s 5 or so miles on the map. A slight fluctuation of 0.05-0.1 QPF could mean a couple extra inches of snow in the Charleston area
-------- has Beaufort in 2-4”
Even with the freezing rain on our forecasts you don’t have to go far from under an inch on Folly to 3” on James Island. That’s 5 or so miles on the map. A slight fluctuation of 0.05-0.1 QPF could mean a couple extra inches of snow in the Charleston area
-------- has Beaufort in 2-4”
Tokenfreak
Member
They'll probably do some changes in the morning considering the trends tonight.
Bro has already made two forecast maps in 12 hours. So much has changed since this morning too. For future storms, I'd like to propose a new challenge: predict how many snowfall maps @wxBrad Pan0vich will issue.
Trends been all day FFC IMO is really reallt concerned with another Snowmaggdeon scenario
Forevertothee
Member
In case others could not read, like myself.
It is becoming increasingly likely that a winter storm will impact
north and central Georgia Tuesday through early Wednesday.
Uncertainty remains regarding exact accumulation, but snow is likely
to be the dominant precipitation type. A Winter Storm Watch has been
issued for areas along and south of the I-20/I-85 interchange for the
potential for as much as 2-3" of snow accumulation. Please continue
to monitor for future updates.
Twister
Member
I would love to know what they are seeing to say this about N GA? It makes no sense whatsoever
Yeah. This is a very different FFC from times past. They were once one of the more conservative offices. Even after 1/28/14. This is a fairly new thing. Of course hard to tell since the last 5-7 years never had much of an opportunity to show the shift.
The GFS continues to tick better.
Everything seemingly improving a little bit tonight. Hopefully we continue
Stormsfury
Member
4 to 5.6 around Mobile, AL... wow...
Some half foot blips on the Miss and AL beaches... wow.
This is when I expected the NW side of storm to start moving back west 0z models. NW trend will start tonight.
Sctvman
Member
Even Dave Williams calling for “light snow/sleet accumulations.” And he’s the most conservative met here
jhoodatlga
Member
To be honest, I would be more cautious too. Given that potential snow chances are uncommon in the South, I actually think the KFFC SHOULD BE overly cautious because the consequences of not are just too impactful considering that they forecast for a MAJOR metro area.
Forevertothee
Member
Well this makes FFC's watch more and more valid, considering it won't take make precip to cause road issues with the temps we have had in place.
Can't wait for the CMC 
It's going to be hilarious if it bounces back a little.
It's going to be hilarious if it bounces back a little.
It’s about the sameCan't wait for the CMC
It's going to be hilarious if it bounces back a little.