Wintry January 21-23 2025

[cyclogent]

Well would you look at that? The 21z RAP and 0z HRRR both have snow breaking out near Memphis after midnight tomorrow night lol. The sounding near Jackson TN is nearly saturated from 475mb down to about 925mb. That wasn't there earlier. Warning shots...

 

[packfan98]

Are my eyes deceiving me or did the Euro AI tick ever so slightly W/NW with QPF

Small tick for eastern NC

 

[beanskip]

The HRRR is a step in the right direction with the northern/polar branch disturbance. Need to see more of that the next few model cycles

Quack

And as a result, lower pressure in Gulf and considerably more robust precip over La. vs the 18z run.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Need to shove that feature in N GA/AL further NW in future runs. This is a killer and ----- off the column faucet

 

[DopplerWx]

48 hrs to get this baby going. We’ve come back from worse . Need the nam to go the right way at h5 here shortly

 

[RBR71]

Small tick for eastern NC
View attachment 165658

All else being equal if models hold this look I would be shocked if it didn't verify a little NW of that, good to see it stopped going south

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

Need to shove that feature in N GA/AL further NW in future runs. This is a killer and ----- off the column faucet View attachment 165659

IF THAT FEATURE WOULD BE SITUATED NEAR THE TN/MO BORDER THAT WOULD BE AMAZING

 

[1300m]

Small tick for eastern NC
View attachment 165658

Thought it was actually a jump until I noticed it was starting with the 18z run yesterday . You know we're in bad shape when we're analyzing one one hundredth increases lol. Well within the noise - will more than likely go back the other way because let's face it, that's what it wants to do.

 

[superjames1992]

All else being equal if models hold this look I would be shocked if it didn't verify a little NW of that, good to see it stopped going south

Yeah, I feel pretty confident about that. Unfortunately, I don’t see it being enough so to get us in the “game”, although T-1” is certainly on the table.

 

[WFFaithful]

Need to shove that feature in N GA/AL further NW in future runs. This is a killer and ----- off the column faucet View attachment 165659

What is a feature of dry air like that called?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[CaryWx]

Thought it was actually a jump until I noticed it was starting with the 18z run yesterday . You know we're in bad shape when we're analyzing one one hundredth increases lol. Well within the noise - will more than likely go back the other way because let's face it, that's what it wants to do.

w/o NAM support tonight (increase) it's just a wobble in my view

 

[beanskip]

Squinting hard to find a game-changing trend with the 0z NAM, but not seeing it so far.

 

[rburrel2]

When will the winter storm warnings go up in Arkansas? Those guys can't miss!

 

[DopplerWx]

Snow showing up offshore Charleston at 36 weird

 

[bouncycorn]

This NAM run, like the last several, is going to be further south than the previous. Guess we hope that we reverse this trend at 6z.. but I don't see it at this point.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

This NAM run, like the last several, is going to be further south than the previous. Guess we hope that we reverse this trend at 6z.. but I don't see it at this point.

Just too much of a good thing with the PV push. “Too cold to snow”

 

[bouncycorn]

Just too much of a good thing with the PV push. “Too cold to snow”

Meanwhile they'll be having 24-25F heavy snow in Louisiana (of all places)

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Nam is digging the northern stream more but the southern stream is so far behind, it don’t really matter. If we had a phased system right now we would be trending to a even bigger one with these northern stream adjustments at 00z

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Meanwhile they'll be having 24-25F heavy snow in Louisiana (of all places)

Yeah I should have prefaced mid south. Majority of the time when there’s a PV push of this nature it’s snowing on beaches or for those on a tropical cruise.

 

[DopplerWx]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Only if it was lined up

 

[NCSNOW]

It is lined up at hr 42. I cant post images on this thread or i would

Edit: got in front. Oh to get those lines more s to north on the se coast.

 

[accu35]

FWIW Nam is little north this run.

 

[DopplerWx]

 

[NCSNOW]

Look how far north 540 thickness line has climbed

 

[SnowedIn1]

The FV3 might have something....

 

[DopplerWx]

It is lined up at hr 42. I cant post images on this thread or i would

Yep

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Pain. Nice lift in the snow growth zone but low levels are so dry

 

[bouncycorn]

Oh.. FV3...

 

[SnowedIn1]

 

[DopplerWx]

Damn fv3

 

[junbb1]

T

The FV3 might have something....

View attachment 165668

HP has a weaker push on the FV3 vs Nam. Grasping I know…

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Nam has like 9 hours of reflectivity here but can’t moisten the low levels

 

[xshare]

FV3 has it over Atlanta for hours just to drop 0.3 inches?? So, what, it would just flurry for hours?

 

[beanskip]

0z NAM taking the low over the Dry Tortugas, lol.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

It's a start. And wow at my old N.O. stomping grounds. That would be the largest snowfall there since 63!

 

[tarheels2]

Look how far north 540 thickness line has climbed

How does that affect things

 

[RBR71]

FV3 must be the GRAF's crazy cousin, probably be enough to keep the NBM from tanking tonight

 

[Myfrotho704_]

just a fyi that’s 1km reflectivity so that’s way above our heads