Wintry January 21-23 2025

[bud006]

It is time fam.
View attachment 165629

Shows my part of the world at ~1/2” which, going with 15:1 ratio, pushes it to ~3/4”. That’s why I’m still watching this carefully because even that scant amount would cause issues here, given the cold in place and near instant accumulation.

The margin remains agonizingly thin between nada and a significant impact on the northern edge of this.

—30—

 

[KyloG]

Still a large spread and some big dogs are thickening that mean

 

[RBR71]

Still a large spread and some big dogs are thickening that mean

View attachment 165633View attachment 165634

Is it just me or is it weird that there are still some big dog members this close to verification time?

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Still a large spread and some big dogs are thickening that mean

View attachment 165633View attachment 165634

Curious to see the run for #16. I would like to know how it came to that solution.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Is it just me or is it weird that there are still some big dog members this close to verification time?

I think it’s def a little weird. They have pivoted more onto the consensus axis of heavier snow that’s expected, but yeah having any (let alone a pretty high amount for this range honestly)

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Considering this little movement (orientation of the S/W trough just a slight touch better) made the euro run better at the sfc decently, it’s probably a few members that still have the orientation way better then this even.

 

[WeatherNC]

Is it just me or is it weird that there are still some big dog members this close to verification time?

I’d be interested for anyone who has access to let us know what the height fields on those big dogs have in common. Are we ejecting out of the SW quicker, more/less northern stream interaction, just a sharpening vort along the Gulf Coast? They are obviously popping a significant lp coming out the Gulf, just trying to understand how. Thx

 

[RBR71]

I mean the NWS still has a large spread tbh and this is wild, just shows how close we are and yet so far....

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looking at most models, the euro is prob the furthest backed with the northern stream and at the same time not pressing it to much into the SE.

 

[RBR71]

Can you post sc


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CAE Winter Weather Forecast

 

[Bham 99]

Strong front! Left Atlanta it was 41° this afternoon got to Charleston and it was 60 ° just as the front was arriving. It took the front about four and a half hours

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

A small chance of 12” in the south Atlanta Metro

 

[Chazwin]

I can’t recall who wrote but I do remember once reading a paper about the January 2000 storm in which it was stated that the EURO ensembles were the first to start showing solutions with that storm on the 0z runs on 1/23/2000. Now I’m definitely not saying that we see a repeat of that. I don’t think we will ever see a storm like that completely missed again. However the EURO and EPS could well be on to something here. Keep in mind the EURO is ran at a high resolution. At least it something to watch for the rest of night

 

[Shawn]

Probably why CAE is waiting so long trying to figure out why the euro EPS is doing what it's done with the big guys.

There is like 4 or 5 ways we go from basically zilch to 5 plus inches. Hard forecast

 

[Shawn]

And IDK how many ways we have to put it, put the small talk and banter talk in the right threads. Not here

 

[Chazwin]

Probably why CAE is waiting so long trying to figure out why the euro EPS is doing what it's done with the big guys.

There is like 4 or 5 ways we go from basically zilch to 5 plus inches. Hard forecast

I did think that GSP did a good job in there discussions I’m starting that all thought amounts are likely to remain very light if any, the cold road temperatures that will be in place can produce treacherous road conditions even with small amounts.

 

[weather bubba]

That Euro run is the first good sign I've seen all day for any hope of accumulating snow for RDU. I hope this is the beginning of some better trends as this storm approaches. If that northern stream doesn't press as far south as portrayed on other models then more of us may be in business. This run brings a little hope to what has been the winter of our discontent today.

 

[rburrel2]

I know the NAM is a little worse at 5h compared to the Euro... but it seems like the biggest difference in qpf output is the NAM wants to virga everything and not saturate the boundary layer. FFC mentioned that in their disco as well. Hopefully it's overdoing the dry air situation here.

It does look like one of those things, that if it trends a little better, all of a sudden that whole area of precip is reaching the ground and everyone gets their dusting to 2 inches. Something we may not know, or see on the models until it's go time.

 

[Uncle Nasty]

Im not sure what Morristown is seeing, but it looks decent for a " possible" icy road scenario.

Monday night will continue the unseasonably cold temperatures as the
expansive trough sits over the majority of the CONUS. Increasing
clouds out of the southwest overnight should help keep temperatures
a tad warmer than what we see Sunday night, but we`re still
expecting widespread teens to single digit ambient temperatures
overnight. Models have continued to trend a bit further south and
overall drier with the mid week system expected to impact the Gulf
Coast states but climatology says a Northwest trend is very possible. At this point deterministic and probabilistic guidance keeps most of the precipitation south of the TN/GA border with a possible push of moisture near the Tn/Ga border. Possible high ratio snow amounts could exceed 1 inch at the Tennessee/Georgia border. Have trimmed back PoPs during this time for everywhere but far southeast
TN and southwest NC where a slight chance of flurries remains, except for the aforementioned Tennessee/Georgia border..

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

We ain’t done

 

[Shawn]

We ain’t done View attachment 165646

This is what I'm talking about. GSP mentioned that the cutoff is to their south somewhere in the Midlands they think based off the GFS ensembles giving them more confidence about it. So they're not buying the eps I spose

18z SHOULD give a better picture to some come tomorrow but who knows. Boom or bust potential the further SE you go.

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

I know the NAM is a little worse at 5h compared to the Euro... but it seems like the biggest difference in qpf output is the NAM wants to virga everything and not saturate the boundary layer. FFC mentioned that in their disco as well. Hopefully it's overdoing the dry air situation here.

It does look like one of those things, that if it trends a little better, all of a sudden that whole area of precip is reaching the ground and everyone gets their dusting to 2 inches. Something we may not know, or see on the models until it's go time.

View attachment 165644View attachment 165645

Ik some have said it’s factored in but to what extent ? We’re talking bone dry here. Like

.25” QPF would really be .1” bc of waste ? Or is that too much ?

I could see a scenario places like Monroe / Rockingham ect sit under returns for 3hrs and get 1/2” bc of waste


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[Shaggy]

Probably why CAE is waiting so long trying to figure out why the euro EPS is doing what it's done with the big guys.

There is like 4 or 5 ways we go from basically zilch to 5 plus inches. Hard forecast

Womder what those bigger members are seeing

 

[rburrel2]

Ik some have said it’s factored in but to what extent ? We’re talking bone dry here. Like

.25” QPF would really be .1” bc of waste ? Or is that too much ?

I could see a scenario places like Monroe / Rockingham ect sit under returns for 3hrs and get 1/2” bc of waste


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It's completely factored in to the modeling... to the point that FFC mentioned the hi-res models may be overdoing it. We probably won't "waste" any qpf to virga. In fact, we may get some extra precip that was modeled to fall as virga.

 

[Shawn]

If anyone has EPS member charts for 500mb vort, please post

 

[rburrel2]

This situation where half the models are showing 0 qpf and half are showing 1/10th of liquid could stay just like this right up until go time. So people should prepare themselves for not "knowing" what's gonna happen until they get ground truth reports on Tuesday.

Also, ask yourself this, if the NAM was showing 1/10th inch of qpf for columbia, and the Euro/EPS was showing 0... would you feel better about the situation? The answer to that question is, heck no! haha. You've got the best model on your side.

 

[weather bubba]

The KRDU afternoon dscussion gave some hints as far as what they are expecting as far as accumulation. They see counties like Sampson and Wayne getting maybe a inch and places further west to Raleigh and Albermarle getting a dusting. This was before the Euro run that raised hopes for many of us. If I didn't have to work I could go to my father in law's house in Goldsboro to go chase. He loves to make snow cream.

 

[Parker]

Jason Simpson seems pretty bullish to me. I’d take this all day long

 

[Chazwin]

Ik some have said it’s factored in but to what extent ? We’re talking bone dry here. Like

.25” QPF would really be .1” bc of waste ? Or is that too much ?

I could see a scenario places like Monroe / Rockingham ect sit under returns for 3hrs and get 1/2” bc of waste


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Keep in mind that the QPF output already has virga factored in. Another thing to watch for is just how the ratios work out for any snow that falls. Remember the Raleigh snow jam in 2005 occurred with 1.3” of snow on only .05” of QPF.

 

[ForsythSnow]

HRRR so far looks to be a deeper dig out west and slightly less east press so far. Between 12Z, 18Z, and 0Z now, you can see the trend pivoting off Texas.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

If anyone has EPS member charts for 500mb vort, please post

what run and time frame??

 

[Branch]

View attachment 165648
Jason Simpson seems pretty bullish to me. I’d take this all day long

Looks similar to 2014 at 18z on a Sunday before the Tuesday storm if I remember on northern edge

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Well that’s different

 

[Webberweather53]

The good news here if you’re hoping for a come back is the euro I’ve noticed has handled the northern stream better than most models this season and it’s the most favorable looking of the models on that front.

The GFS suite tends to progress these northern branch systems too quickly and if that’s the case here, I can see some shift towards the EPS camp in the next few cycles

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Well that’s different View attachment 165651

They about to get a foot in LA

 

[MotoWeatherman]

A small chance of 12” in the south Atlanta Metro View attachment 165643

Honestly I give that a zero percent chance of happening.

 

[Rolltidegal60]

View attachment 165648
Jason Simpson seems pretty bullish to me. I’d take this all day long

View attachment 165648
Jason Simpson seems pretty bullish to me. I’d take this all day long

Most of the Bama Mets are saying pretty much the same thing

 

[Myfrotho704_]

need a lot more of this lol

 

[Webberweather53]

The HRRR is a step in the right direction with the northern/polar branch disturbance. Need to see more of that the next few model cycles

Quack

 

[RBR71]

Are my eyes deceiving me or did the Euro AI tick ever so slightly W/NW with QPF