Wintry January 21-23 2025

[1300m]

I probably should have posted it in the complaining thread as it was meant to be a joke. Hell, I hope the dude is right.

I know where he’s coming from. Even a tenth of precip can cause massive problems and then you’re subject to 1) knowing if you didn’t warn enough someone’s life could have been permanently changed or lost and 2) you get your rear end handed to you by everyone on social media and the broadcast media as well. Here, we can blow it off and shrug if it ends up surprising but it’s a whole different ball game when you have thousands of people’s lives partially dependent upon what you do and say.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

The way this crawls from Houston to Alabama then sprints east from there is gross. It’s as bad as anyone could have drawn this up. A big waste for a lot of people. But damn at those totals up and down I-10. Congratulations guys

 

[Mitch West]

RGEM drills the I-10 corridor from Houston to Baton Rouge then blanks the coast of ENCView attachment 165599

Yes, it basically see it’s getting East of the Apps & realizes it has to stop delivering snow.

 

[Philstorm91]

NWS LIX just issued a Winter Storm Warning for most of their CWA:

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Winter precipitation causing moderate to major impacts is
expected. Snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches along and north of
the I-10 and I-12 corridor and 1 to 3 inches south of this
corridor. There is also a low chance of light ice accumulations
along and south of this line.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

* WHEN...From midnight Monday Night to midnight CST Tuesday Night.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road
conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday
morning and evening commutes.

 

[Brandon10]

Does anyone know if all the energy and shortwaves have truly been sampled yet? Grasping here...

 

[bud006]

Saw flurries earlier today while out on a walk, and saw quite a few flurries in the breeze while driving a few miles from my house about 15 minutes ago.

Thinking this might be the most significant snow I see this week - even if FFC remains adamant that snow Tuesday remains in play for the Atlanta Metro.

—30—

 

[Spurs up]

why?!

 

[Pops]

Let it go!

Legitimate ques..

 

[superjames1992]

This is the one I remember tracking in middle school and wondering how something like this could even happen. Not sure the exact setup here but seems like it may have been a coastal. View attachment 165559

Wasn’t that from a beefy clipper that transferred off the coast?

 

[Sctvman]

Ed Piotrowski’s thinking for the Grand Strand and Pee Dee

 

[SD]

Does anyone know if all the energy and shortwaves have truly been sampled yet? Grasping here...

The western wave yes the Canadian wave maybe but I'm sure they are both being captured by satellite and aircraft

 

[FortMillSCWx]

Am I missing something or do we just not get access to most of the models?

 

[SegTindoPro]

Am I missing something or do we just not get access to most of the models? View attachment 165604

This is the latest one
And also I think they use balloon data if I’m not mistaken


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[bouncycorn]

Am I missing something or do we just not get access to most of the models? View attachment 165604

It is likely using old data from 1-2 runs ago. It does have a bias correction also, not sure if we are seeing that.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Sucks because this is all you gotta do in this type of setup is dig the N/S just a little bit more and this is how easy it is to bring QPF north/west. But it’s to late for anything major

 

[RollTide18]

18z GFS looks roughly the same

0z runs will be big

 

[RBR71]

Am I missing something or do we just not get access to most of the models? View attachment 165604

Yeah don't get fooled by one image, it is trending in direction of all modeling. Tonight's run will be even less I'm sure, it seems to be based off model runs 6 hrs prior.

 

[superjames1992]

I still think there’s a chance of a “small” bust that lends itself towards T-3” with ratios for folks further west and with how cold it is it wouldn’t take much to cause real impacts, but yeah this is just so disappointing (after all, we see similar busts with rain all the time, just no one cares if they get 0.05” of rain or 0.2”).

Either way, it looks like a potentially historic storm for the Gulf Coast. Apparently, I shouldn’t have moved from the Gulf Coast.

 

[tlokpmalone]

18z GFS looks roughly the same

0z runs will be big

I feel like we would have need to see the 18z runs here go a tick north to set up some substantial shift north. At this point a big shift north would just have to come out of nowhere since we aren’t even getting slight trends north.

 

[Mahomeless]

18z GFS looks roughly the same

0z runs will be big

0z runs will be much of the same, as there is nothing new to sample for them. Those of us in AL are cooked other than the southern 2 or 3 tiers of counties. Not our storm, never was unfortunately.

 

[KyloG]

Nice trend for Carolina’s. Would love to see some snow fall.

 

[accu35]

18z gfs about the same as 12z or a tad better with moisture

 

[SnowmanVol99]

The runs have been sampled to death. Some folks are hooked on samples. LOL

 

[RollTide18]

0z runs will be much of the same, as there is nothing new to sample for them. Those of us in AL are cooked other than the southern 2 or 3 tiers of counties. Not our storm, never was unfortunately.

I’m in a decent spot regardless, just saying if there’s any northward trend, I think you’d see it tonight.

I doubt it ends up that far north at this point though.

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

The runs have been sampled to death. Some folks are hooked on samples. LOL

I do enjoy Sams Club samples.... one thing I noticed (Wishcasting alert) Slight teeter to SW - NE orientation on GFS in QPF ....again I have been drinking 4Loko and making Parlays and may just be seeing the 3 as a 7 bc its about time to head home alone but yea

 

[Sctvman]

 

[accu35]

Nice trend for Carolina’s. Would love to see some snow fall.

View attachment 165611

Notice the little NW trend with this loop. Has the blues pushing further east now.

 

[Six Mile Wx]

Sucks because this is all you gotta do in this type of setup is dig the N/S just a little bit more and this is how easy it is to bring QPF north/west. But it’s to late for anything major View attachment 165608View attachment 165609

Yep! N/s was further west without the wave getting pushed further west. Also the n/s trough looked to have less positive tilt and precipitation arrived faster in the east.

 

[albertwilsonjr]

New gfs trending nw. Time for the comeback of century


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[Tokenfreak]

Expected snowfall for Charleston area

 

[chase223322]

Just had a few flurries fall in Midtown ATL. Is this a good sign for things to come? Haha!

Just drove from central north georgia to north east georgia through a bunch of flurries. Strange…

 

[tlokpmalone]

It looks like there is a giant mass of dry air from a high pressure system that pushes all the moisture in the southeast out to sea very quickly. It’s like as soon as the moisture from the gulf comes, the high pressure system pushes it away.

 

[Baggs]

From the maps that are being posted to simplify things our high pressure is in the wrong location for quantifying precip into the upstate . The high pressure needs to be in Pennsylvania/ New York. Just keeping it simple.

 

[Parker]

I’m reaching here but the 18z GEFS is at least a little further north with the precip, but it’s splitting hairs.

 

[Sctvman]

Sharp cutoffs

 

[accu35]

There’s little hope here for many of us with more expansive

 

[tlokpmalone]

There’s little hope here for many of us with more expansive

19 and 14 are like the only good ones for me in the atl north metro

 

[tlokpmalone]

Sharp cutoffs

I can believe that there is a 7 inch difference in Savannah between the NAM and graf

 

[tlokpmalone]

The ICON model always has the worst scenarios that basically no one wants

 

[RollTide18]

There’s little hope here for many of us with more expansive

6 out of 20 absolutely nothing is kinda scary and also is possible