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Wintry January 21-23 2025

From FFC:

"Global and hires model guidance still closing in on the details of
the short wave and precip shield expected to travel ENE within the
strong WSWly flow aloft, but with slightly lower amounts than last
24 hours of runs. After collaboration with neighboring WFOs and WPC,
have kept watch in place and only lowered amounts just a touch
from last night. While our deterministic, i.e. most likely,
official forecast only has less than an inch for ATL metro, there
is still a high chance (30-50%) that we could see higher amounts,
even as high as 4 inches.

As the precip moves in Tuesday, low levels will be very dry and
will take a few hours to saturate. But, similar to other events
like this (including the Jan 2014 Snow Jam), wet-bulb temps will
be in the mid 20s. It won't take much snow to produce high impacts
with these temps. Unfortunately, blended model guidance is not
hitting this scenario hard enough, keeping dry air in place all
afternoon and evening. Temps should verify much colder and more
moist, likely in the upper 20s all day Tuesday in ATL metro.
Precip shield shifts south Tuesday night with more prolonged light
snow in middle GA before ending before sunrise Wednesday. Some
potential for freezing rain in our far southern areas. Same issue
with models not showing wet-bulb effect sufficiently also an
problem in middle GA, just to a lesser extent."
 
vtrap90 said:
From FFC:

"Global and hires model guidance still closing in on the details of
the short wave and precip shield expected to travel ENE within the
strong WSWly flow aloft, but with slightly lower amounts than last
24 hours of runs. After collaboration with neighboring WFOs and WPC,
have kept watch in place and only lowered amounts just a touch
from last night. While our deterministic, i.e. most likely,
official forecast only has less than an inch for ATL metro, there
is still a high chance (30-50%) that we could see higher amounts,
even as high as 4 inches.

As the precip moves in Tuesday, low levels will be very dry and
will take a few hours to saturate. But, similar to other events
like this (including the Jan 2014 Snow Jam), wet-bulb temps will
be in the mid 20s. It won't take much snow to produce high impacts
with these temps. Unfortunately, blended model guidance is not
hitting this scenario hard enough, keeping dry air in place all
afternoon and evening. Temps should verify much colder and more
moist, likely in the upper 20s all day Tuesday in ATL metro.
Precip shield shifts south Tuesday night with more prolonged light
snow in middle GA before ending before sunrise Wednesday. Some
potential for freezing rain in our far southern areas. Same issue
with models not showing wet-bulb effect sufficiently also an
problem in middle GA, just to a lesser extent."
Click to expand...
They are basically saying the same thing we have been wish casting. Models aren't going to cut it, it is going to be like 2014 :oops:
 
vtrap90 said:
From FFC:

"Global and hires model guidance still closing in on the details of
the short wave and precip shield expected to travel ENE within the
strong WSWly flow aloft, but with slightly lower amounts than last
24 hours of runs. After collaboration with neighboring WFOs and WPC,
have kept watch in place and only lowered amounts just a touch
from last night. While our deterministic, i.e. most likely,
official forecast only has less than an inch for ATL metro, there
is still a high chance (30-50%) that we could see higher amounts,
even as high as 4 inches.

As the precip moves in Tuesday, low levels will be very dry and
will take a few hours to saturate. But, similar to other events
like this (including the Jan 2014 Snow Jam), wet-bulb temps will
be in the mid 20s. It won't take much snow to produce high impacts
with these temps. Unfortunately, blended model guidance is not
hitting this scenario hard enough, keeping dry air in place all
afternoon and evening. Temps should verify much colder and more
moist, likely in the upper 20s all day Tuesday in ATL metro.
Precip shield shifts south Tuesday night with more prolonged light
snow in middle GA before ending before sunrise Wednesday. Some
potential for freezing rain in our far southern areas. Same issue
with models not showing wet-bulb effect sufficiently also an
problem in middle GA, just to a lesser extent."
Click to expand...
Pretty wild. I give them credit for not backing down easy. It’s just funny cause they’re telling me Atlanta has a 30-50% of getting 4 inches and I’m struggling to find a model that has 1 inch.

FFC used to be the stingiest office around when it came to snow. Times have changed I guess haha

I WANT TO BELIEVE
 
jrips27 said:
Pretty wild. I give them credit for not backing down easy. It’s just funny cause they’re telling me Atlanta has a 30-50% of getting 4 inches and I’m struggling to find a model that has 1 inch.

FFC used to be the stingiest office around when it came to snow. Times have changed I guess haha

I WANT TO BELIEVE
Click to expand...
They’re worried about Snowjam 3 with this cold airmass coming in. But yeah, gotta have precipitation to have a jam
 
tlokpmalone said:
Can someone explain to me what “suppression” is. I’ve heard it come up a lot and not totally sure what it means.
Click to expand...
In this case, it's when you got the cold air but the moisture is pushed to far South by such a harsh cold air press basically. There are other ways to explain it with fancy terminology, but that sums it up.
 
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