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Wintry January 21-23 2025

Parker said:
Do you expect this to come in play for those of us further west as well or are you primarily speaking for the eastern sections of the board?
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It’ll definitely come into play where it sets up with a very sharp gradient north and west most likely. Right now it appears in the Carolinas I-95 south and east will be the sweet spot but it could obviously shift.
 
1300m said:
No one seems to notice what anyone says but one met on here but that’s what has been discussed for days by several of us. This is the area to watch. Same thing happened back in December and led to a 1-2” event.
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I would say this is probably one of the things that the WPC is seeing when they are putting out the map like they did this morning. I think a lot of us who follow this as a hobby forget that meteorology is a lot more than just looking model outputs.
 
Downeastnc said:
This was just issued like 20 mins ago....again this seems counter as hell to the model outputs....

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This literally makes no sense. It does feel a lot like Helene and their track projection way further west than what models were consistently saying. If this did verify tho, what data are they seeing that we are not?
 
1300m said:
Yes. Banding is going to setup there just like it did in December. Wherever that aligns will be the jackpot. I’d think 1-3” could easily fall there if not 2-4” considering how high ratios will be.
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Sounds good. This will be the area to watch then on the NAM runs going forward. Not only where it continues to toggle it's set up but how thick (close) those purple lines condense as well. Orange shading (850s?) would be good too but probably too much to ask right now.
 
tractor girl said:
This literally makes no sense. It does feel a lot like Helene and their track projection way further west than what models were consistently saying. If this did verify tho, what data are they seeing that we are not?
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They're just trying to save their own asses in case this thing pulls a January 2014/2022 which is actually quite possible.
 
rburrel2 said:
Where this gets weird is the difference between .01/.02 and .15/.20 liquid is like nothing.... a slight dry bias in overrunning regimes can get you there. and if this was a rain event no one would even notice or care.

But of course flurries and 2.5 inches of snow are vastly different... so it matters a lot in this circumstance.
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That's what I was just telling someone today. Any other time of year and it takes nothing to get .25 of rain but when it comes to snow it's like climbing Mt everest. I still have a hard time believing the models have a good handle on meso features at this range. Even assuming a nw trend and/or underestimating of waa/overrunning doesnt happen..one would think there would be a stripe of snowfall that isn't being picked up on quite yet...probably between I 20 and 85. But we shall see.
 
Cold is the headline....bleh. Hoping that the Carolina's and me in Augusta this week....

-- Take:

 
When you are under super cold air. It will squeeze out every ounce of moisture there is to squeeze. NWSF events do this all the time. You see it in ky,ohio as moisture comes down off lakes before the topography lift takes full advantage west side apps.
This event is no different,its coming from the SW,not NW and though its not climbing west side apps. There is a topography rise from sea level up the coastal plain, into the piedmont.
 
NCSNOW said:
When you are under super cold air. It will squeeze out every ounce of moisture there is to squeeze. NWSF events do this all the time. You see it in ky,ohio as moisture comes down off lakes before the topography lift takes full advantage west side apps.
This event is no different,its coming from the SW,not NW and though its not climbing west side apps. There is a topography rise from sea level up the coastal plain, into the piedmont.
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This is a great point & I’ve always found it wild how it almost contradicts virga.
 
In all honesty, just a couple of inches usually slows us down around here. So if we have widespread snow totals in this area of 3-5 even isolated amounts over 8 inches, with temps below freezing until Wednesday afternoon, I think cities like Houston, Baton Rouge, New Orleans, and other cities in the path of the snowfall will just shut down. This is a pretty rare event for these parts. The infrastructure and public services just aren't equipped to deal with winter events of this magnitude. But I'm sure many will be excited to see this rare treat from their homes.
 
Philstorm91 said:
In all honesty, just a couple of inches usually slows us down around here. So if we have widespread snow totals in this area of 3-5 even isolated amounts over 8 inches, with temps below freezing until Wednesday afternoon, I think cities like Houston, Baton Rouge, New Orleans, and other cities in the path of the snowfall will just shut down. This is a pretty rare event for these parts. The infrastructure and public services just aren't equipped to deal with winter events of this magnitude. But I'm sure many will be excited to see this rare treat from their homes.
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Yes I was just remembering traveling on I 10 from Baton Rouge to Baymont TX on the very long bridges over the bayous ... Not a good thought with the forecasts...
 
Ok little question does the NBM use data from balloon data or data from other models because are they playing it safe?


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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
227 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>011-108-GAZ120>126-142>144-155-201030-
/O.NEW.KTAE.WS.A.0001.250121T1800Z-250122T1200Z/
Coffee-Dale-Henry-Geneva-Houston-North Walton-Central Walton-
Holmes-Washington-Jackson-South Walton-Quitman-Clay-Randolph-
Calhoun-Terrell-Dougherty-Lee-Early-Miller-Baker-Seminole-
Including the cities of Riverturn, Battens Crossroads, Chipley
Municipal Airport, Moores Crossroads, Iveys Mill, Ewell,
Fairchild, Dothan, East Albany, Sneads, Cuba, Santa Rosa Beach,
Dawson, Dawson Municipal A/P, Centerville, Abbeville, Elmodel
Wma, Commissary Hill, Seminole State Park, Herod, Ozark, Browns
Crossroads, Glendale, Alpine Heights, Leonia, Springvale Station,
Barker Store, Argyle, De Funiak Springs, Richter Crossroads,
Cottonwood, Abbeville Municipal A/P, Red Store Crossroads, Clarks
Mill, Doverel, Benevolence, Turquoise Beach, Jones Crossing,
Browntown, Logan Field Municipal A/P, Blakely, Turner City, Dill,
Cordrays Mill, Enterprise Municipal A/P, Ashford, Wire Bridge,
Graves, De Funiak Spring Airport, Union, Southwest Ga Regional
A/P, Holmes County Airport, Early Co A/P, Yeomans, Ricks Place,
Simsville, Fort Rucker, Crystal Lake, Hoggard Mill, Pecan,
Headland Municipal A/P, Peterson Hill, Palmyra, Davis Park,
Babcock, Five Points, Daleville, Pleasant Ridge, Blackwell Field
A/P, Pretoria, Boykin, Colquitt, Walker, Hawkinstown, Crossroads,
Marianna, Forrester, Bonifay, Hartford, Coles, Bellview,
Arlington, Hacoda, Mayhaw, Mabson, Little Hope, Newton,
Eucheeanna, Center Ridge, Headland, Asbury, Orange Hill,
Douglasville, Williamsburg, Fadette, Cobb Crossroads, Sandestin,
Georgetown, Point Washington, Cooktown, Donaldsonville A/P,
Albany, Lockett Crossing, Fort Gaines, Bagby State Park,
Blackwood, Enterprise, Malone, Ganer, Beamon, Shivers Mill,
Geneva Municipal A/P, New Hope, Portland, Morgan, Geneva, Edison,
Donalsonville, Freeport, Milford, Bunker, Poplar Head, Chipley,
Springvale, Screamer, Keyton, Cluster Springs, Days Crossroads,
Cuthbert, Leesburg, Graceville, Hatcher, Lawrenceville, and
Dickey
227 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2025 /127 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025/

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations up to 2 inches and ice accumulations around one
tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Alabama, Panhandle Florida, and
southwest Georgia.

* WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous by Tuesday night. The weight of
the ice on tree limbs may down power lines and could cause
sporadic power outages. Plan on slippery road conditions. The
hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening and
Wednesday morning commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Persons are urged to stay indoors until conditions improve. If you
must go outside, dress in layers. Several layers of clothes will
keep you warmer than a single heavy coat. Cover exposed skin to
reduce your risk of frostbite or hypothermia. Gloves, a scarf, and a
hat will keep you from losing your body heat.

Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely
necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter
storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains,
booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing.
Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help
you survive in case you become stranded due to the very cold weather.

&&

$$


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