SnowwxAtl
Member
What are they seeing that we don't see?
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
albertwilsonjr
Member
Let’s see the hrrr
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Cad Wedge NC
Member
18z NAM continues the better trend. Let's see what happens
Pops
Member
It's suppressed. Great for some but further north nahh
Brandon10
Member
18z NAM looks improved so far....
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
That N/S looks stronger too, let’s see where this goes
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Yeah I was just noticing the slight slowing and extending west of the northern piece while southern piece is touch stronger, completely separated from Baja low influence. Let's see if this translates to any improvement at the surface
Cad Wedge NC
Member
This is trending in the right direction for sure.
Mahomeless
Member
If this were a bullseye storm on the I20/85 corridor, at this lead time, how many people would be terrified of a 100-150 mile shift NW by go time? Just curious
Baby steps
Sctvman
Member
Winter Storm Watch for CHS area
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Looks like that southern piece is trying to get ahead of the N/S just a tad
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Catfish
Member
Feels like we’ve thrown in towel too early. This storm is still 48 hours out for most of us. Still lots of time for adjustments, which I think is why you see NWS going with broader coverage in their maps. Plus historical analogs for such events.
Seems to be more precip in the mid south between 33-36 hours. Let’s see where it leads
Precip breaking out in N Arkansas, that is new
It's not a big change, would like to see it continue to bundle and slip east quicker on future runs.
Comparing just 24 hours ago; it still doesn't look as good as some of those runs, sadly, at least at 500mb.
Comparing just 24 hours ago; it still doesn't look as good as some of those runs, sadly, at least at 500mb.
Brandon10
Member
Really thinking this run translates to help get QPF further west in SC and NC...still a coastal plain special but more lift and energy to blossom precip shield
NEGaweather
Member
North shift
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The surface low tries to pop in virtually the same place at 12z.
I think we are about to get into the range, at least with the shorter range modeling, that will pickup on frontogenesis and all kinds of otehr fun things with waa. The globals aren't gonna be great at it. I bet we have a couple good looks by 12/18z tomorrow with a better picture, without needing the globals much.
NAM with a consistent southward trend, esp 18z.
packfan98
Moderator
Pushes our surface low and moisture too far south. Just too much press if there’s not going to be a phase.
Initial thoughts. Certainly subject to change.
Brandon10
Member
Ok maybe NAM not looking as good.... really thought it was going to shift a little better
ForsythSnow
Moderator
It's a double-edge sword. It trends south but the axis is improving. I think I would take a further south start point if the axis can shift better unless I'm mistaken.
There is definitely something to the orientation thing. You can see how it keeps flipping back in forth on all models. It'll look more zonal some runs then go back more towards a SW to NE.
Totally agree with this, thinking it can get us a better SW flow aloft
Yeah the low is south but if axis and direction of low doest kick NE at 48 would never get moisture actually north
Brandon10
Member
Are we really trying to pop another low? Lol
GeorgiaGirl
Member
There's been something like an energy transfer type deal to me on some of these model runs.
Look at how the entire orientation of the moisture shifts on the NAM.
Unless someone can see a way the cold push would be more relaxed, this is about the best we are going to do and it's not looking great.
Edit:
In the end, the timing and cold push just sucks. We have a large kicker out there, but it's just bad timing all the way around to even have that help us most likely.
The only hope is for the NS to slow tf down.
Edit:
In the end, the timing and cold push just sucks. We have a large kicker out there, but it's just bad timing all the way around to even have that help us most likely.
The only hope is for the NS to slow tf down.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
As long as the NAM is coming in better at the surface that’s a big win seeing that the argument over the last 48 hours has been that the surface is underdone
TigerSnow
Member
It looks like the actual cold push is hurting us this time for areas north and west. The low is riding the artic push and staying south for us.
Oconeexman
Member
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Outer banks jackpot?