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Wintry January 21-23 2025

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jrips27 said:
Speaking as a homer - would take about a 60 mile shift on the NAM to bring significant impacts to ATL. So 60 miles in the next 60 hours. Feels pretty doable? But also not likelyView attachment 165478
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I’ve never thought I’d be needing a NW trend this late but just a few ticks and I’d be in it. South GA still looks pretty good for a lot of people who have never seen much snow
 
DopplerWx said:
Icon actually much farther n here than 06z
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Just a little trend. Keep in mind what I had posted yesterday. We looked bad 36 hours out on the Euro in 2017. Setups like this can change in a snap. One run and the ICON brings its snow 75 miles or so inland. If we see another tick forward on the same path here, we could see 18Z showing snow much further north.
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The GRAF actually handled the precipitation in the Charlotte area pretty well. It kept showing the initial band drying up/delaying it. Having said that, if somehow we end up with something, I’m done with these models. All of them have been utterly terrible with this storm. Let’s see what happens though. Maybe the short range models will give us some love.
 
SimeonNC said:
I will say for areas in the CLT region, GSP, and Atlanta, if we get any unexpected measurable snow, especially on the roads, even if it's a half inch or so. We might end up having an January 2014 situation when it comes to traffic that next morning.
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Jan ‘14 was snowmageddon in ATL because the snow came down around lunch time after a normal morning commute. When businesses started letting their people go it was too late. The roads were already screwed upz.
 
ragtop50 said:
I saw this type of gradient with the December 1989 coastal snow event. I had about 3", 20 miles to my west, just a trace. One county east was 10"+.


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I lived in northern nash county during that event. Brutal watching snowplows on the evening news with what amounted to a heavy frost outside the window. Roads where white from the dusting it was so cold, but you couldnt hardly see it in the grassy dead bermuda.
 
LithiaWx said:
Jan ‘14 was snowmageddon in ATL because the snow came down around lunch time after a normal morning commute. When businesses started letting their people go it was too late. The roads were already screwed upz.
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The timing with this one looks similar. I'm not a fan of starting precip in the early afternoon as forecasted (hopefully) here. With such meager moisture, I don't want to waste even one flake on an above-freezing surface.
 
Here's what our brethren, Webber, presumed what'll occur (with his quote below):
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I’ll produce an initial forecast map later today once I see all the 12z guidance this morning, but we are largely beginning to settle into a solution with the upcoming winter storm in the Carolinas.

I think here that the snowy sweet spot will be somewhere between the coast and I-95 & US-1. Closer to the coast, mixing with sleet is a concern.
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LithiaWx said:
Jan ‘14 was snowmageddon in ATL because the snow came down around lunch time after a normal morning commute. When businesses started letting their people go it was too late. The roads were already screwed upz.
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Atlanta didn't have adequate equipment /resources for brining the roads then either. Since that time they build massive salt storage tents all around the city, and the have a ton more trucks available to treat the roads.
 
Hard to see how any of the physics models can bump futher north, cause the artic boundary is forcasted to be across central GOM and out to sea in the atlantic. Naturally thats where slp is gonna track. If that boundary ends up 50-75 miles futher north and or it can bend more at a ne angle coming out in the Atlantic. Then that would be gravy. This isnt what i call a coastal track. Its an Out to sea track. Big diff.

At H5 best thing to root for is ns to slow down and hook up with ss futher west better to get better tilt. That nw kicker maybe gets delayed is the only thing i see that could help this happen.
 
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