It’s better at least
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
surprise! this is not a model progression, it is a trend lol
beanskip
Member
Surface low is 1012mb at 60 hours -- had been 1016 at 0z Wednesday the prior 3 runs.
RollTide18
Member
NAM looks a lot better, even I need this north trend for more precip
I think we need that kicker entering Alberta further west to help the northern stream from getting pushed east
it actually looked like there was a little more press that got balanced out by better tilt on the shortwave amplifying heights ahead a little bit. all in all, i think this could be a redeeming run for the coast, and for my mom, who texted me this morning asking why wilmington is only getting 2 inches now
We want to keep this trend without sacrificing any more eastward movement. In fact let’s move it 200 miles west and keep the tilt going 
that’s how I’d draw it up in a perfect world 
that’s how I’d draw it up in a perfect world 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We’re largely settling in to a solution with this storm and I don’t hate where we’re at, esp knowing what will be forcing the a lot of the precip here (warm advection aloft).
beanskip
Member
NAM a bit faster than prior runs -- also a little more NW component to precip shield. Still a brutal ice/sleet storm for north Florida/SE Ga.
rburrel2
Member
The intensity of virga is much improved at least, lol.
I sorta think the Euro/EPS knows and we're gonna continue to see some slightly wetter trends... good enough for a dusting to an inch for a lot of folks.
I sorta think the Euro/EPS knows and we're gonna continue to see some slightly wetter trends... good enough for a dusting to an inch for a lot of folks.
SimeonNC
Member
I think this is the first run that brings precip back to the mountains, which is a good sign
NAM is better & a little faster.
RollTide18
Member
Seemed a little colder for sure, there was less sleet and more snow in the FL Panhandle this run
Do you still think we see the precip shield expand further North as we near closer?
rburrel2
Member
That stupid kicker in the Pacific northwest has been trending faster for like 36 hours now... if we could get that puppy to bounce back the other way over the next few runs we would really be cooking.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I would definitely say this is a "NAM'ing", but I don't think it'd be for anyone on this board outside of accu, RollTide, and Phil (close to it for me):
I'd take it though personally.
I'd take it though personally.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I think the sweet spot in the Carolinas is probably gonna be along or just east of I-95. Closer to the coast I’m afraid mixing with sleet could be an issue
NAM going nuclear over East central Georgia
SimeonNC
Member
This is gonna be a meme associated with me isn't it? lol Anyway, with what the NAM is showing and this, I don't hate where I'm at in CLT.
Insane gradient.
Hey it’s hr 66 and I’ve seen bigger shifts inside 48 before. I’m a snow weenie and I’m tracking this until I see snow 200 miles to my south
Tokenfreak
Member
I’m in that area too. Hopefully we get a decent amount but we shall see.
Cotton country smoked. I did contract work down in the Allendale, Hampton, Fairfax area for many years. Hot summers
That's pretty much what I'm thinking as well. Higher ratios, no mixing. I actually told my mom this yesterday (lives in Benson) to get the bed sheets ready, the kids and I may be coming for a visit! Been a long time for folks in that area as well. A lot of sleet or rain events when others just to the north cashed in.
BHS1975
Member
How does this compare to Jan 2014 at this stage?
Parts to the north are sorta on life support and this is the thin limb we are on we shall see if can slowly build anything back but man its been pretty rock bottom for 24 hoursWe want to keep this trend without sacrificing any more eastward movement. In fact let’s move it 200 miles west and keep the tilt going
No doubt. Hard to think it will be that tight on the cut off. Maybe??
I saw this type of gradient with the December 1989 coastal snow event. I had about 3", 20 miles to my west, just a trace. One county east was 10"+.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
I don't know about track and qpf, but the precip type on the graf did TERRIBLE for the upstate. It consistently showed much of the upstate as all snow for the entirety of the event and that could not have been more wrong.
SimeonNC
Member
I will say for areas in the CLT region, GSP, and Atlanta, if we get any unexpected measurable snow, especially on the roads, even if it's a half inch or so. We might end up having an January 2014 situation when it comes to traffic that next morning.
Tokenfreak
Member
albertwilsonjr
Member
That because most of it melted due to was
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Speaking as a homer - would take about a 60 mile shift on the NAM to bring significant impacts to ATL. So 60 miles in the next 60 hours. Feels pretty doable? But also not likely
Snow began at noon for me and didn’t really start to stick until 2:30.
justin2k23
Member
- Joined
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Dublin Ga here. I'd do backflips if that "NAMing" happened here!
rburrel2
Member
It was actually way too dry in the Upstate. It had hardly anything falling after the initial round of precip moved through, and we wound up getting like 1/2 inch of liquid from that.
Sctvman
Member
James Island getting 2" and Mt. Pleasant 7 would be wild. And Georgia Southern, expect to be out the rest of week.
BKWRN29
Member
Why would it not be likely? I can’t even tell you have many times I have been in the sweet spot or southern cut off line at this time frame and ended up with nothing. That is why I am hopeful things will tread NW like they always do!