packfan98
Moderator
6z euro very similar to 0z. The .5 line is just off shore.
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Read the NWS discussions. They use everything but change the weight they are given based on many factors.Ok actual question do any still use the euro and gfs at this point or do they use the NBM I’m confused
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Read the NWS discussions. They use everything but change the weight they are given based on many factors.
I’m hoping the cold backs off for you to minimize a potential ice storm. Stay safe!Well, look, I know this thing has trended away from a lot on this board and I'm truly sorry about that -- I remember the disappointment of losing what seemed like a surefire "Big Dog."
BUT, I hope you'll hang in there with me and a few others as we track what is truly a potentially historic situation in Louisiana, Florida and along the coast.
Unfortunately, it looks like I don't have much to root for other than a sleet storm -- I have have ice storm PTSD -- they are awful.
Regardless, I've got one model showing .7 of ZR even using the FRAM method, another with a raging sleetstorm with 1 inch of QPF and others with combinations of snow, ip and zr. And of course, the GFS shows mainly rain and not much of it.
Anyway, I could use the help bringing this one home -- who knows, maybe it will keep trending worse and I'll get the shaft, too. But if it's going to be a situation, it could very well be one for the history books.
You guys deserve it more than anyone else. We complain about going 3 years without snow. You guys go a decade or more in some locations. Stay safe and enjoy. Rooting hard for you from WNC!!!! I do believe you guys will have some mixing issues but its almost meso scale time.Well, look, I know this thing has trended away from a lot on this board and I'm truly sorry about that -- I remember the disappointment of losing what seemed like a surefire "Big Dog."
BUT, I hope you'll hang in there with me and a few others as we track what is truly a potentially historic situation in Louisiana, Florida and along the coast.
Unfortunately, it looks like I don't have much to root for other than a sleet storm -- I have have ice storm PTSD -- they are awful.
Regardless, I've got one model showing .7 of ZR even using the FRAM method, another with a raging sleetstorm with 1 inch of QPF and others with combinations of snow, ip and zr. And of course, the GFS shows mainly rain and not much of it.
Anyway, I could use the help bringing this one home -- who knows, maybe it will keep trending worse and I'll get the shaft, too. But if it's going to be a situation, it could very well be one for the history books.
Thank you voice of reason! Just as quick as this storm is supposedly poof, gone….. it’ll be back. I can’t help but think that the extreme amount of artic air coming down is likely confusing the models. I’m an amateur at best but more will be revealed with this one imoWe still have at least 36 more hours to go, all the short term high resolution models haven’t got in range yet, and the pieces of energy (esp the Pacific) have just gotten into the upper air network. Adjustments are still possible IMO.
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Man.. the GRAF is going insane.
The actual NWS & a ton of their graphics reflect a similar footprint.Yeah I don't buy this happening. Everything,except for maybe the Euro is leaning towards major suppression.
Tbh this looks like some of the offices need to get on a zoom and get on the same pageNWS forecast just updated. First forecast below. Having a hard time believing Atlanta gets more snow than Columbia. But who knows.
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I wouldn’t be surprised if theres slight fill in for NW areas as we get close to verification, still room for a humble NW trendYeah I don't buy this happening. Everything,except for maybe the Euro is leaning towards major suppression.
Man.. the GRAF is going insane.
And yes I think that weird front running finger over north ga is a symptom of a slightly healthier southern stream look that’s emergedWe are still out 48 hrs, before the Lp, if there is one forms in the Gulf. I know the Models are going on data they receive as this system approaches and changes according to ground truth. I know it is exciting when we are in the jackpot, and disappointing when we are just outside, but we can't have much certainty until the LP appears and starts moving across. Its not time to cry or to celebrate!
Just look how much the Gfs has changed in 48 hours. I have definitely seen it move north (more times than not) more than that before in 48?
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I’ve been talking to him this morning. (awesome person btw) and he thinks most of the Midlands gets at least an inch.I want to know what Bonds himself perceives what'll occur.
Does he say why he thinks this?I’ve been talking to him this morning. (awesome person btw) and he thinks most of the Midlands gets at least an inch.
No, he just said this is our best set up to get accumulating snow in a very long time.Does he say why he thinks this?
That high amount is insaneFrom the CHS NWSView attachment 165436