Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[Webberweather53]

Euro seems warm at the surface compared to the CAD being depicted

The parent sfc high is too far west compared to what you’d normally like to see ideally for cad. Need the southern stream wave to slow a bit or
Northern one to slide eastward and synoptically force the high towards quebec

 

[iGRXY]

I agree. IF the high pressure is there and timed correctly, it will be colder. Maybe a blend of all of the current modeling would be better at this juncture. They are actually in pretty good agreement for this lead time.

They all have a storm which is good. But a double barrel high pressure as depicted with one in Virginia would likely be much colder at the surface.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

all I love seeing right now is that big high pressure nearby, that’s all I need at this range right now, we can figure out some other things as we get closer

 

[Metwannabe]

At least the Euro clown map is pretty, I'd rather be north of it at this stage but I think this has potential to trend colder as we get closer..... maybe just maybe something to finally track ? ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

When you realize every model has something

 

[sdm47]

all I love seeing right now is that big high pressure nearby, that’s all I need at this range right now, we can figure out some other things as we get closer

Agreed. Let's get a wintry threat and figure out the details. FWIW - I am positive the 12z euro was too warm with the given slp depiction. Was a pretty classic Miller B - would have likely been a heck of a IP/FZRA event around RDU.

 

[Metwannabe]

Sorry Shane

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

I like the cad setup for areas in NEGA. @ForsythSnow

 

[sdm47]

Got to love the trend. Now to D7 with the high still near 1040 and further south. We are definitely trending towards a frozen precip event. Hopefully this time we can keep the positive trends going as we approach D5...

 

[Stormdoc]

Is that 972? Wow, this was nearly a bomb. Interesting.

 

[BIG FROSTY]

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[deltadog03]

**IF** we can get that high to build in quicker.....hmmmmm

 

[Myfrotho704_]

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“NJ and north”

 

[iGRXY]

I will say I’d expect if we do see wintry weather it would likely be more ICE than snow. Snow just doesn't seem to want to cooperate around here and those mid and lower levels always want to be warm.

 

[sdm47]

I really like this threat right now for one key reason. We get an injection of cold air before this storm arrives from storm number 1 which should be a fairly wet one and give north mid Atlantic into NE a good winter storm.. one it passes you see nice cold highs filtering in on most models and from there the southern jet is shooting out storms and we get one right as the cold is getting established here ... basically having COLD air FIRST makes it way easier to make it “happen” per say

This is a good point and in addition to having cold first, there will also hopefully be a little bolstering of the snowpack to our north.

 

[iGRXY]

I love the double barrel look of HP and classic Miller B track. Those south of I40 would likely be a stout ICE storm howver.

 

[Chandler]

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

If I’m IN NC I’d be getting really excited about this potential

 

[snowvol]

Is this a good look for snow ? Asking for a freind View attachment 66643View attachment 66644

If I’m IN NC I’d be getting really excited about this potential

Would love to get more of the mid south involved, us in west and middle tn north of 40 haven't gotten nothing but a few flurries so far this year.

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

Would love to get more of the mid south involved, us in west and middle tn north of 40 haven't gotten nothing but a few flurries so far this year.

Cad usually trends colder. Who knows?