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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Yeah, this is much better IMO. The -NAO block is close to an ideal location, Baffin bay more toward Hudson bay. The ridging is pushing into Alaska and the pacific low has retrograded west to the Aleutians. Canada's not very cold here still, but this set up would put us back in the game I think second half of January. Hope this is real. I hate depending on 384 for a pattern change!

1609167136965.png
 
Pac Jet extends on the GEFS

1609167605722.png
then it retracts
1609167627143.png

the extension leads to a GOA low
1609167676032.png

the retraction allows for ridging to start developing along the west coast into AK
1609167735116.png

Also notice Urals ridge in play early1609167782468.png

This likely aids in the jet extension and EAMT. As the ural ridge dampens that should help retract the jet and build a western ridge
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Dang when the wheels falls off of that sort of pattern that’s basically it, wonder how long the block will stay
Click to expand...
Without looking at the eps I bet it stinks in the day 10-16.
Idk I mean the theme since like september has been a ural ridge. Without changing much forcing it seems like we would cycle back through something similar to what we have seen recently. This time though climo would favor a better chance at snow before we went back to poop. The gefs are starting to show some life to the mjo that could be a wildcard here.

Also to add to my post above the pac jet retracting allows for the heights in the north atlantic to retrograde into a more classic and impactful for us orientation
 
Looks like more rain and storms for New Year's Day, and another severe threat. Just great. So over the rain and storms now. Its winter. We want snow! Maybe this will bring about a pattern change more favorable for snow.

This is from WRAL

LOOKING AHEAD: Keep checking in with us! Severe storms will be possible Friday ahead of our next front. As of now, the main threats will be tornado and wind damage.
 
SD said:
Without looking at the eps I bet it stinks in the day 10-16.
Idk I mean the theme since like september has been a ural ridge. Without changing much forcing it seems like we would cycle back through something similar to what we have seen recently. This time though climo would favor a better chance at snow before we went back to poop. The gefs are starting to show some life to the mjo that could be a wildcard here.

Also to add to my post above the pac jet retracting allows for the heights in the north atlantic to retrograde into a more classic and impactful for us orientation
Click to expand...

The gefs extended goes with a classic nina transformation to a NPAC ridge, -PNA and southeast ridge, I still think this gets pushed back especially given the SSWE and displacement, but I think we’ll eventually find this pattern again given in almost every nina I know, we eventually get this 0308CC64-4CF3-4623-9D9C-874FA225B989.png9396E5E0-8723-417C-A411-0C8155F165D5.png
 
PNA looks like it will stay positive, NAO will go strongly negative, and the AO will stay strongly negative. I guess on paper, or modeled output, this is the look we want. But as others have stated, other pattern details (W/E NAO, EPO) can turn the tables.

CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Teleconnections (noaa.gov)
 
From the GSP NWS

Expect a full fropa over the cwa by
early Saturday when PoPs get shutoff as a post-frontal environment
prevails before a secondary shortwave trough approaches the region
early Sunday. Questions of what would occur underneath will not
be answered anytime soon, but models have hinted at a coastal low
forming along the frontal boundary that would be offshore at this
point. If the coastal low and shortwave can somewhat phase with
enough moisture and cold air, then there would really be something
to talk about. First, let us get through the New Years Eve and New
Years Day event before getting our hopes up. Temperatures will be
way above normal Thursday and Friday ahead of the the cold front,
while remaining slightly above normal Saturday and near normal
Sunday with mostly dry conditions in the grids for the time being
during the upcoming weekend.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The gefs extended goes with a classic nina transformation to a NPAC ridge, -PNA and southeast ridge, I still think this gets pushed back especially given the SSWE and displacement, but I think we’ll eventually find this pattern again given in almost every nina I know, we eventually get this View attachment 60758View attachment 60759
Click to expand...
Hour 624 .... ?
 
On to the next one. 42 degrees at 7am isn't going to cut it
 
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