ajr
Member
A deepening 50/50 low as well:
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
If we can keep this System the same latitude, or even further south, and also keep strengthening that stuff around SE Canada, the storm will begin to pull in those colder 850s from it, getting close to that already 
You get that block a little stronger, things will trend south some and slow down enough to perhaps let that N/S wave get involved, if it's real.
Still largely suppression on the GEFS but a few closer members and 1 that goes boom
Clem282340
Member
Is this a Miller A kind of setup here
Yes.
The ones that do develop precip show a good bit of snow. That's good.
Clem282340
Member
Miller A is not good for the upstate right
Sometimes can be, but often times can be screwjobs there
One thing to remember is that the GFS has had a warm bias at the surface in this range lately. So if we can trim off about 3-4 degrees then most of NC could be in business.
Miller As are just fine or total crap. It all depends on the track of the storm and the strength and placement of the cold air.
The important thing to note about Miller As is that they have a very narrow transition zone between rain and snow. Where the boundary sets up is determined by the track of the system. I wouldn’t throw out a general statement that Miller As favor one area over another in order to make any sort of a prediction. It really comes down to the synoptic evolution of any given storm.
They can work for the eastern part of the upstate fairly well, but back towards Greenville/Spartanburg you’ll want to see the wave move along like a southern slider so that you can have an overrunning set up before the coastal really gets cranking
Honestly I’m more Worried about handing this storm off to the northeast/upper MA
The transition from rain to snow can be very narrow with one location seeing mostly rain while 10 miles to the northwest is getting slammed with heavy snow. Also the cut off of precip on the west side can be painfully sharp as well. During the Crusher I was in an area that got 10-12 inches while 8 miles to the southeast had 18-20 and 6 miles to the northwest only had 3-4.
IF we keep seeing the block get stronger, I'd grow more confident in more of the SE seeing wintery as opposed to getting whiffed to the NE. But it is 2020, so.... haha
SnowNiner
Member
That's the location where you want your block to be. That plus a +PNA is money.
Still could be some onset ice on Wednesday per the NAM, wouldn’t sleep on this given more than modeled low level WAA > earlier precip onset, and dewpoints will be in the upper teens/low 20s vs our past event which had dews in the mid to upper 20s for most
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Definitely agree. Actually had some light freezing rain this morning here. 3k NAM is showing the Wednesday potential as well.
Wow the GEFS really said F U to that trough mess out west ... hello +PNA?