• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Does anyone know if Ral,GSO recorded wettest year on record? We where very close I think, 2cnd all time around Christmas day
 
@KyloG, I updated the composite to add in some of the storms I missed that you plotted in the big dog storm composite, here's the list:
'1960-02-13 00z', '1960-02-14 00z', '1962-03-06 00z', '1966-01-29 00z', '1966-01-31 00z', '1969-02-15 00z', '1969-02-16 00z', '1969-02-17 00z', '1980-02-09 00z', '1980-02-10 00z', '1987-01-22 00z', '1987-01-23 00z', '1987-02-16 00z', '1987-02-17 00z', '1993-02-27 00z', '2004-02-25 00z', '2010-12-25 00z', '1983-03-25 00z', '2010-02-12 00z', '2016-01-20 00z', '2018-01-16 00z'
1960-02-13 00z 16.png
When comparing that to the EPS, the obvious thing that we need to change is to get the 50/50 low to trend much stronger. That has been my #1 fear with this pattern.
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom_5day-0755200.png
 
Last edited:
Ollie Williams said:
@KyloG, I updated the composite to add in some of the storms I missed that you plotted, in the big dog storm composite, here's the list:
'1960-02-13 00z', '1960-02-14 00z', '1962-03-06 00z', '1966-01-29 00z', '1966-01-31 00z', '1969-02-15 00z', '1969-02-16 00z', '1969-02-17 00z', '1980-02-09 00z', '1980-02-10 00z', '1987-01-22 00z', '1987-01-23 00z', '1987-02-16 00z', '1987-02-17 00z', '1993-02-27 00z', '2004-02-25 00z', '2010-12-25 00z', '1983-03-25 00z', '2010-02-12 00z', '2016-01-20 00z', '2018-01-16 00z'
View attachment 61510
When comparing that to the EPS, the obvious thing that we need to change is to get the 50/50 low to trend much stronger. That has been my #1 fear with this pattern.
View attachment 61511
Click to expand...
We’re not far off from that with the first system DDCCF83F-D5B5-4598-AC78-CA924A68395C.png
 
NCSNOW said:
Does anyone know if Ral,GSO recorded wettest year on record? We where very close I think, 2cnd all time around Christmas day
Click to expand...
GSO came up about 6/10 short. Earlier this week it appeared this wet weather was going to hit a good 12-24 hits earlier. TW
 
down to 44 here from the low 50’s earlier and the rain has been very steady so far. Quite cold as well with the wind picking up. The wedge is winning big time
 
Meh. Looks like the gefs wants to dump stuff in the southern plains lol, I’m not even worried, wonder if EPS follows A36DB79A-14E4-4B5C-9079-16966A5B52C2.png97D07B6B-94B6-4279-9AC0-322A98F0EE10.png
 
I was cautiously optimistic for the first 10 days of January a couple weeks ago with the long range signals from the models, but now I want to see cross polar flow bitter cold to come down before I get my hopes built back up. The continental air masses we've seen and are on the horizon won't do much IMO
 
These little southern stream waves look goood on paper, but we’re missing a key ingredient. Cold. If modeling is right and cold air is trapped on the other side of the globe behind that big Canadian ridge then it will take quite some time before things change. I’m still hopeful but man is this tiresome.

this ain’t it ??BD655446-D121-420F-BB23-2AA146C2A080.png
 
ghost1 said:
I was cautiously optimistic for the first 10 days of January a couple weeks ago with the long range signals from the models, but now I want to see cross polar flow bitter cold to come down before I get my hopes built back up. The continental air masses we've seen and are on the horizon won't do much IMO
Click to expand...
Spot on. That blame goes on pacific. All the coldest air is not sliding into Canada ??
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
These little southern stream waves look goood on paper, but we’re missing a key ingredient. Cold. If modeling is right and cold air is trapped on the other side of the globe behind that big Canadian ridge then it will take quite some time before things change. I’m still hopeful but man is this tiresome.

this ain’t it ??View attachment 61523
Click to expand...
Seems like we keep going through the same thing with these models every winter either we have the moisture with no cold air or we have the cold air but no moisture wash rinse repeat... I mean but unfortunately something has got to give because I’m sure things are going to change for the better eventually
 
Wonder if we can somehow get a TPV to come our way with this look
But yeah this pattern favors the upper SE a bit (TN/NC and especially the mountains) and the MA/NE quite a bit, those pacific waves earlier on isn’t expected to do much anyways but if they could that’s a bonus 64FBB183-1158-4A59-883F-A4AABC3C0116.png
 
ghost1 said:
I was cautiously optimistic for the first 10 days of January a couple weeks ago with the long range signals from the models, but now I want to see cross polar flow bitter cold to come down before I get my hopes built back up. The continental air masses we've seen and are on the horizon won't do much IMO
Click to expand...

I don't really agree with this too much. Maybe it's necessary to get more substantial cold for the areas in the deep south to get into the game, but many of us can do fine with what we've got (or are in striking distance of). If anything, deep cold is more suppressive and does not necessarily mean we have a better chance at getting snow. I think what we're seeing models trend towards is sufficient for many.

Clearly, this is a good trend thru the last 00z EPS:
ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_fh192_trend.gif

And the last frame of that run only strengthened the cold push:
ecmwf_cold_push.png

Obviously this last frame will trend in some direction, but if the current direction is towards colder, then I think we'll do alright temperature-wise once we get past the 10th or so. For now, the favored areas are towards the northern and western tiers of the board: TN, northern MS and AL seem to be in the best position verbatim from that 240 hr map. Expect this solution to change as we get closer, but not necessarily in a bad way.
 
RVD said:
I don't really agree with this too much. Maybe it's necessary to get more substantial cold for the areas in the deep south to get into the game, but many of us can do fine with what we've got (or are in striking distance of). If anything, deep cold is more suppressive and does not necessarily mean we have a better chance at getting snow. I think what we're seeing models trend towards is sufficient for many.

Clearly, this is a good trend thru the last 00z EPS:
View attachment 61528

And the last frame of that run only strengthened the cold push:
View attachment 61532

Obviously this last frame will trend in some direction, but if the current direction is towards colder, then I think we'll do alright temperature-wise once we get past the 10th or so. For now, the favored areas are towards the northern and western tiers of the board: TN, northern MS and AL seem to be in the best position verbatim from that 240 hr map. Expect this solution to change as we get closer, but not necessarily in a bad way.
Click to expand...
I agree with this, we gotta be patient with this pattern it’s not like it’s gonna throw a storm overnight, it’s honestly a step down process but the fact that there’s something close showing up around day 7 is already a good sign
 
for western NC if you want something you want something like this, and even then cold air would possibly be a struggle C810830B-E178-4D4C-A08D-239062342511.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Damn imagine if we could slow that wave off the NE coast a bit moreView attachment 61534
Click to expand...

Ollie Williams said:
The Euro kind of resembles December 2010.
View attachment 61537View attachment 61538
Click to expand...

IDK, I'm not too sold. The 50/50 low is sorta trending that way but I doubt we get there. I think that the wave over the central US is too strong/far north to work out, also. Even if we get more confluence over the NE, I think this is a better setup for the Mid-Atlantic.

Case in point: the upper level low has a strong/established circulation at 850mb that's too far north for us, and driving a big warm nose as a result. Maybe we could fight this off with some more confluence over the NE, but it'd be tough.
ecmwf_uv850_vort_us_fh96-168.gif
ecmwf_T850_us_8.png
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Not many mountains to block the cold air from reaching Atlanta. Most of the mountains are NE of Atlanta.
Click to expand...
The cumberlands block us all the time. Not to the extent of other areas but they kill out flow snow and hold the cold air somewhat.
 
Those ptype graphics look closer than I thought they'd be, actually! The thing playing in our favor is that the 850 low I mentioned is weakening as it approaches. It's vaguely possible some of the northernmost board members get into the action.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top