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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

RVD said:
I don't really agree with this too much. Maybe it's necessary to get more substantial cold for the areas in the deep south to get into the game, but many of us can do fine with what we've got (or are in striking distance of). If anything, deep cold is more suppressive and does not necessarily mean we have a better chance at getting snow. I think what we're seeing models trend towards is sufficient for many.

Clearly, this is a good trend thru the last 00z EPS:
View attachment 61528

And the last frame of that run only strengthened the cold push:
View attachment 61532

Obviously this last frame will trend in some direction, but if the current direction is towards colder, then I think we'll do alright temperature-wise once we get past the 10th or so. For now, the favored areas are towards the northern and western tiers of the board: TN, northern MS and AL seem to be in the best position verbatim from that 240 hr map. Expect this solution to change as we get closer, but not necessarily in a bad way.
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I agree it’s possible to get something with what we’ve had and may get in the near term but it hasn’t paid off yet and we haven’t been able to maintain a decent snow pack to our north. (Upper Midwest running above normal) You get Arctic fronts coming thru every 10-14 days that snow pack will build and hang around. I’ll take my chances with the NW trend working on suppression... I’m ready for a change... probably wistful thinking on my part
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Wonder if this will reflect on the snow mean for the first system, although those are some solid trends for the MAView attachment 61568
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I like the trends off the west coast... that trough moving west and the ridge getting more established... bodes well for the cold push after this system (which is when I think we should really be watching out for something).
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
These little southern stream waves look goood on paper, but we’re missing a key ingredient. Cold. If modeling is right and cold air is trapped on the other side of the globe behind that big Canadian ridge then it will take quite some time before things change. I’m still hopeful but man is this tiresome.

this ain’t it ??View attachment 61523
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Once the cold gets on that side of the world, it never comes over here or moderates a ton when it does!?
 
For example we need something like this look below with stuff near the 50/50 region/around SE Canada , problem is, it’s Still not enough given cold hasn’t really settled in E29BE483-ABE4-43AB-88A0-A76B754CB975.png
This right here is lacking that, so this argues for better stuff further west
AF07D7F6-854B-4D0A-ABEA-A0564DF7C647.png
 
Lickwx said:
@FallsLake screw the NAM ! I’m riding the GFS , we getting 70 . Forget about that stinking NAM ! 43 right now . Come on GFS ftw.
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Lol. Yeah, there a big difference between the two for our area. Especially for the highs tomorrow (upper 50s NAM & ~70 GFS). The new 18z NAM is about the same. RAH grid forecast seems to be somewhere in the middle of the two.
 
If we could stabilize the pattern here, we would be in business shortly. Looks like a -EPO, -AO, and -NAO. A PV is migrating toward the eastern US and deepening, with a bit of cross-polar flow setting up. The PNA is probably neutral, but it doesn't matter all that much here. The pattern looks active.

If this would be stable, you'd see a rapid build-up of cold in our neck of the woods, along with an active storm track. This is what we want to see.. Money.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_nhem_11.png
 
KyloG said:
EPS 15 day snow mean past 3 days. Strat warm peak is next week or so..."they" say it can take 2-3 weeks after to see real effects.


View attachment 61583
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Thanks! This is just my anecdotal observation, but anything less than 2-3 inches in the mean is noise. Anything less and it's not likely to snow IMO. This shows me there's a signal for storm in the Mid-Atlantic and the mountains.
 
Rain Cold said:
If we could stabilize the pattern here, we would be in business shortly. Looks like a -EPO, -AO, and -NAO. A PV is migrating toward the eastern US and deepening, with a bit of cross-polar flow setting up. The PNA is probably neutral, but it doesn't matter all that much here. The pattern looks active.

If this would be stable, you'd see a rapid build-up of cold in our neck of the woods, along with an active storm track. This is what we want to see.. Money.

View attachment 61584
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Hopefully, sometimes those tall ridges Towards the NW territories can dislodge a nice little TPV lobe, looking ahead I think that’s probably the best Option, EPS hints at it a bit, let’s hopeA0384B4A-B81E-4E4A-8362-193BEBD5CFB9.png6E276E3A-819A-4096-A01F-15FAA4B9C2E4.pngE7BCCA9E-D09E-4825-BD4F-C9D74E3A3705.png
 
SnowNiner said:
Thanks! This is just my anecdotal observation, but anything less than 2-3 inches in the mean is noise. Anything less and it's not likely to snow IMO. This shows me there's a signal for storm in the Mid-Atlantic and the mountains.
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Majority of the mean is day 10+ and I see viable threat for I-40/85 and towards MA.

Its rare for a mean at that range to show more than an inch for our neck of the woods. It needs to get inside day 10. We are a few days from that.
 
SnowNiner said:
Thanks! This is just my anecdotal observation, but anything less than 2-3 inches in the mean is noise. Anything less and it's not likely to snow IMO. This shows me there's a signal for storm in the Mid-Atlantic and the mountains.
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At this lead I'm just looking to see if the # of hits increase run over run versus decreases or increases in the mean itself. I'd much rather have 70% of members showing 1-2 than 4% showing 25+ though the mean would be similar
 
The high-latitude block over Greenland looks basically fully coupled to the stratosphere on the Euro by January 10.

Also starting to see very clear signs of the circulation anomalies from the stratosphere propagating into the troposphere and beginning to project onto -AO as we get close to mid-month. This means our -NAO starts to become relatively more -AO-centric w/ time (lifts poleward), also meaning that the air masses that drop into the CONUS will progressively become deeper/cooler w/ time, especially as snow cover builds to our north before then.

January 14-25 (maybe beyond) is providing one of the most favorable looks we've seen in a really long time in the southern US imo. This isn't to say we can't snow prior to then but I think odds are we may be handing off to the mid-Atlantic before mid-month.

Patience is a virtue and will be needed prior to then. I'm honestly willing to bet that by this time next week, ensemble model output fields (snow for ex) start to sniff something out in this period.



1609534138333.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The high-latitude block over Greenland looks basically fully coupled to the stratosphere on the Euro by January 10.

Also starting to see very clear signs of the circulation anomalies from the stratosphere propagating into the troposphere and beginning to project onto -AO as we get close to mid-month. This means our -NAO starts to become relatively more -AO-centric w/ time (lifts poleward), also meaning that the air masses that drop into the CONUS will progressively become deeper/cooler w/ time, especially as snow cover builds to our north before then.

January 14-25 (maybe beyond) is providing one of the most favorable looks we've seen in a really long time in the southern US imo. This isn't to say we can't snow prior to then but I think odds are we may be handing off to the mid-Atlantic before mid-month.

Patience is a virtue and will be needed prior to then. I'm honestly willing to bet that by this time next week, ensemble model output fields (snow for ex) start to sniff something out in this period.



View attachment 61595
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Honestly real interested If would could drop a TPV under the block nearby, that would be epic
 
Webberweather53 said:
The high-latitude block over Greenland looks basically fully coupled to the stratosphere on the Euro by January 10.

Also starting to see very clear signs of the circulation anomalies from the stratosphere propagating into the troposphere and beginning to project onto -AO as we get close to mid-month. This means our -NAO starts to become relatively more -AO-centric w/ time (lifts poleward), also meaning that the air masses that drop into the CONUS will progressively become deeper/cooler w/ time, especially as snow cover builds to our north before then.

January 14-25 (maybe beyond) is providing one of the most favorable looks we've seen in a really long time in the southern US imo. This isn't to say we can't snow prior to then but I think odds are we may be handing off to the mid-Atlantic before mid-month.

Patience is a virtue and will be needed prior to then. I'm honestly willing to bet that by this time next week, ensemble model output fields (snow for ex) start to sniff something out in this period.



View attachment 61595
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I do want to see more blocking south of the NE, then things are going to get epic!
Similar to this look.
Top Boston Snowstorms.png
 
Ollie Williams said:
I do want to see more blocking south of the NE, then things are going to get epic!
Similar to this look.
View attachment 61597
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The biggest piece of the puzzle we're missing for a big board-wide event and/or classic southern US overrunning is a nice trough over the Great Lakes & SE Canada to suppress the storm track to the south & drive these air masses into our neck of the woods. These obviously aren't usually fully resolved til the medium range and you don't necessarily need a giant vortex/-EPO to make a nice overrunning happen, even a respectable relatively transient s/w near the Lakes can easily get the job done. These types of features are usually a bit more frequent and easier to come by when our blocking high is a bit further north as NWP is hinting at by mid-month. Coupled with the SSWE, I think that's when we start to see the more -AO centric block and the door swings wide open on our potential for a major winter storm. We shall see though.
 
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