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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Rain Cold said:
It seems like for the last several years, the can has gotten kicked to mid-January. There may have been an exception to that, but I don't remember it.
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Agree 100%. HOWEVER AS A REMINDER.
If we go back to the pre -season forecast which was 90 days of disaster, All of us would cash out with the December we've just had. So we more than salvaged 1/3 of met winter. Thats a win. Hopefully we will be able to say the same for January in 30 + days.
If we can score one event by the end of January, its a major feat.The Bar was set very low for good reason this season. If we avg normal to slightly BN and can get the ground covered once or twice then we cant complain this year imo.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
If there’s evidence of this put it in here .. if not all these type of comments with no support belong in the whamby thread!
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You know what, you’re right.

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This still looks like transient warmth to me, but this sorta looks a little bit suspect for severe weather, looks like a pattern that could support more than 1 system producing severe weather, it’s not far off from a pattern similar to April (no not saying it will be as bad as that in any way) which was overall transient with warmth/cool/cold but had several severe weather events 3DC88F39-5321-48C1-94CB-9472D6CB9A2B.pngCCB28AB6-075D-4BDE-8423-BE614BC0B0D1.pngB205A05C-A96C-4B3D-A8A4-E9CAE23702B9.png
 
At least with a very weakened PV, HLB will remain, at this point we just need a week worth of a solid +PNA, and that displacement still looks really good, while it may seem like we’re about to crap the bed, our seasonal pattern wasn’t gonna stay forever, we live in the southeast, lol B96DF706-B966-492C-90FC-59C82FA8EB02.png99179C5B-EB71-471E-AF3E-6F2E5CAE401B.png
 
NCSNOW said:
Agree 100%. HOWEVER AS A REMINDER.
If we go back to the pre -season forecast which was 90 days of disaster, All of us would cash out with the December we've just had. So we more than salvaged 1/3 of met winter. Thats a win. Hopefully we will be able to say the same for January in 30 + days.
If we can score one event by the end of January, its a major feat.The Bar was set very low for good reason this season. If we avg normal to slightly BN and can get the ground covered once or twice then we cant complain this year imo.
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Don't get me wrong, I'm glad December has not been torchy and that it felt like Christmas on Christmas. But we haven't had any sort of real chance for a winter storm, not most of us. So I'm not ready to cash out just yet.
 
Rain Cold said:
Don't get me wrong, I'm glad December has not been torchy and that it felt like Christmas on Christmas. But we haven't had any sort of real chance for a winter storm, not most of us. So I'm not ready to cash out just yet.
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Couldn't have said it better myself. Winter weather wise its as bad as last year east of the mountains. Those just glad for average temps its a win. We have a long way to go but please excuse me for not being optimistic because La Nina isn't exactly known for backend winters.
 
Rain Cold said:
Don't get me wrong, I'm glad December has not been torchy and that it felt like Christmas on Christmas. But we haven't had any sort of real chance for a winter storm, not most of us. So I'm not ready to cash out just yet.
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You are right. Nothing to get excited over but is better than last year so far. Winter never used to get started around here until January anyway. Most said December would be mild and it wasn't. Most said winter will be mild so nothing really expected so shouldn't be disappointed. So many think we will get snow every year in record amounts like this is the NE. This is the SE and we all know everything has to be perfect for us to get wintry weather. Mainly for us here in NC if you don't like the weather just wait it will be different tomorrow lol. As a contractor I've learned not to buy the hype of the model runs. Sit back and watch and see what happens as in the SE it quickly will change.
 
Some if the problem is while the NAO looks decent on maps it doesn't appear to be a true or strong -NAO. Mostly neutral. I don't how exactly NAO value is calculated and don't know if it'll dive deeply negative. But the Pac has to improve either way.
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