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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Not a great look but it is slowly going in the right direction on the 06z GEFS. At the end of the run you can see the EPO and WPO trying to go in the right direction. Trying to find a few positives

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Not a great look but it is slowly going in the right direction on the 06z GEFS. At the end of the run you can see the EPO and WPO trying to go in the right direction. Trying to find a few positives

e7eb94642e2078e92b7546a7033d418b.jpg

fc2d1fe38265ded62020dc73a240da15.jpg

9febe0da077126dbb5c9047ad5bca2c2.jpg

I’m not sure how much to trust index predictions at day 15. A week ago we were celebrating this marvelous pattern coming in early January.


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The January thaw. It comes every year. Might as well embrace it. It will come despite all the talk of SSW and Greenland ridging.


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Somethings different this time. The models usually show an Arctic outbreak that never develops, not this time. We may revisit the previous pattern that we just had with blocking before it’s over, except this time we could be looking at a lobe of the TPV sitting at the Canadian border!
 
I’m not sure how much to trust index predictions at day 15. A week ago we were celebrating this marvelous pattern coming in early January.


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I would a great. Day 16 will change a 100 times.


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This has always bothered me but why are the strat and troposphere so out of phase? Is it just the obvious that they are far different heights and I should wrap my head around the east answer or is there something deeper? gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_15.pnggfs_z500a_nhem_28.png
 
The January thaw. It comes every year. Might as well embrace it. It will come despite all the talk of SSW and Greenland ridging.


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The -NAO looked great with some ridging over the West coast to help with suppression of the s/w but with that gone now, it’s useless. EPS almost blanked RDU for snow, one sole member in the next 15 days....

We hoped for this SSW and looks like we will get it... I hope it works out, looks like the can has been kicked to mid Jan.
 
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The -NAO looked great with some ridging over the West coast to help with suppression of the s/w but with that gone now, it’s useless. EPS almost blanked RDU for snow, one sole member in the next 15 days....

We hoped for this SSW and looks like we will get it... I hope it works out, looks like the can has been kicked to mid Jan.
It seems like for the last several years, the can has gotten kicked to mid-January. There may have been an exception to that, but I don't remember it.
 
Not happening, ain’t no way Dallas is getting more snow then I’ve gotten the last 3 years

I would just like to remind everyone, the first year (2017) I moved down from up north to Metro Atlanta was when the northern and western suburbs got slammed with 10"+ of snow (December 2017), then several weeks later the southern suburbs saw another 2-4" snow event.


So I may just be the good luck charm Dallas needs to get the snow it's long overdue this season. :p
 
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