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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

I remember clearly from December 2018, this type of pattern which I consider an analog, was incredibly bullish and didn't waver much. When the look showed up, it didn't go away, unlike the volatile -EPO that can flip to a SER in one run. You all know that I've pulled this out of my hat already, but this was one of the EPS runs in late November, and it blows my mind how similar the modeling is to the current pattern. Albeit, I want to see the 50/50 low closer to the NE.
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-0625600.png040B5490-6847-4991-9EFF-C9AF3F55B133.png
 
Ollie Williams said:
I remember clearly from December 2018, this type of pattern which I consider an analog, was incredibly bullish and didn't waver much. When the look showed up, it didn't go away, unlike the volatile -EPO that can flip to a SER in one run. You all know that I've pulled this out of my hat already, but this was one of the EPS runs in late November, and it blows my mind how similar the modeling is to the current pattern. Albeit, I want to see the 50/50 low closer to the NE.
View attachment 61177View attachment 61178
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That same exact ridging towards the NW territories gets my attention, that’s what brings the real cold
 
Ollie Williams said:
Nice LR look! I would like some stronger high pressure though.

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Me too, but keep in mind that this is the mean of 51 members of sfc highs that are in different locations, which causes the mean sfc high to be lower than the sfc highs of most individual members. Considering that we're looking way out at 360 hours, the mean sfc high showing is not too shabby. Here is the corresponding 360 hour spaghetti plot of sfc highs of 1028 mb+: most of the blue highs are likely 1032-35 mb. Also, note the handful of yellow highs (1036+ mb) coming into the N Plains/Rockies: these are mostly likely near 1040 mb Arctic highs:

1609360556482.png
 
Ollie Williams said:
I remember clearly from December 2018, this type of pattern which I consider an analog, was incredibly bullish and didn't waver much. When the look showed up, it didn't go away, unlike the volatile -EPO that can flip to a SER in one run. You all know that I've pulled this out of my hat already, but this was one of the EPS runs in late November, and it blows my mind how similar the modeling is to the current pattern. Albeit, I want to see the 50/50 low closer to the NE.
View attachment 61177View attachment 61178
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That’s a great comparison. Of course now we are headed into peak climo so I would imagine if a similar set up to December 2018 occurred, there’s at least a chance some folks a bit further south and east would be in the game.
 
CAD doing it’s thing , 42 in Charlotte , 41 GSO , 46 RDU , 52 right now out here in Wilson. Love eastern NC, none of that CAD stuff . Literally Raleigh is just a hair away from being out of it .
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
You could see cold air being thrown down from the arctic on the EPS View attachment 61172
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I want to believe. But I'm having a real hard time finding the cold air. That pic you posted (thanks by the way!)doesn't even show the 850s getting south of the nc/sc line, not to mention boundary layer and surface temps. That's a huge red flag to me that although we can have the right alignment for storms, they'll likely be rain.

I know it's a mean, averaged out, etc but these modeled temps don't say southeast winter storm to me. What am I missing?
1609362616137.png
 
Lickwx said:
That doesn’t look right imo . 4 straight days of CAD? Yeah no I can’t ever recall that happening , I think at least the second will be warm . At the very least !
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Idk man these CADs get stubborn once you drop precip in and saturate them. Probably going to be watching the warm front Saturday get to about I95 and run out of gas. Back when I was young we would have multi day CADs that would have a couple rounds of winter weather or you would be stuck at like 36 and fog for a few days. They don't make them like they used to
 
SnowNiner said:
I want to believe. But I'm having a real hard time finding the cold air. That pic you posted (thanks by the way!)doesn't even show the 850s getting south of the nc/sc line, not to mention boundary layer and surface temps. That's a huge red flag to me that although we can have the right alignment for storms, they'll likely be rain.

I know it's a mean, averaged out, etc but these modeled temps don't say southeast winter storm to me. What am I missing?
View attachment 61185
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That’s the EPS I posted, EPS is way more bullish then the GEFS, not saying I think I’m the EPS is better here but I think it’s sniffing out the barrage of shortwaves under the block better F94BAC38-D122-40AD-95D2-0428B062BCBC.png60036AE5-F4C1-458F-8B02-412FBB67CE80.pngFA6DBA08-CD0C-4F1B-8E98-18478B7557FF.pngAC9B28EF-4D06-43B0-930A-99479738099B.png
 
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Imo with the beginning of this pattern expect marginal setups tbh, the source of cold is gonna be from phasing and stuff, which works sometimes but sometimes don’t, if we do get a PNA ridge things get even more interesting
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Imo with the beginning of this pattern expect marginal setups tbh, the source of cold is gonna be from phasing and stuff, which works sometimes but sometimes don’t, if we do get a PNA ridge things get even more interesting
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It's likely to be more of a step down then a sudden freezer door opening. Id love to be able to sneak a snow event in on the front end then see how cold it cold get and how long the snow stuck around.
 
SnowNiner said:
I want to believe. But I'm having a real hard time finding the cold air. That pic you posted (thanks by the way!)doesn't even show the 850s getting south of the nc/sc line, not to mention boundary layer and surface temps. That's a huge red flag to me that although we can have the right alignment for storms, they'll likely be rain.

I know it's a mean, averaged out, etc but these modeled temps don't say southeast winter storm to me. What am I missing?
View attachment 61185
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The effects of the SSW would not be appreciated until the end of the month or early February, I believe. Until then I’m just hoping to not torch.


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SD said:
Idk man these CADs get stubborn once you drop precip in and saturate them. Probably going to be watching the warm front Saturday get to about I95 and run out of gas. Back when I was young we would have multi day CADs that would have a couple rounds of winter weather or you would be stuck at like 36 and fog for a few days. They don't make them like they used to
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Looking at the GFS control for today looks like it busted too cold across the region though nailed RDU . Good sign perhaps it’s overdoing it . Cause these stratus clouds are depressing , got to have hope .
 
SD said:
It's likely to be more of a step down then a sudden freezer door opening. Id love to be able to sneak a snow event in on the front end then see how cold it cold get and how long the snow stuck around.
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Yep basically, gonna be a barrage of pacific waves and maybe the 3rd or 4th one produces, than maybe that stuff around AK retrogrades which allows a PNA ridge and the real cold is on sight with that, but the latter part is still more of a question, although eventually one would think it would retrograde, would be nice to get that tall poleward ridge like the EPS shows towards the end of the run
 
SnowNiner said:
I want to believe. But I'm having a real hard time finding the cold air. That pic you posted (thanks by the way!)doesn't even show the 850s getting south of the nc/sc line, not to mention boundary layer and surface temps. That's a huge red flag to me that although we can have the right alignment for storms, they'll likely be rain.

I know it's a mean, averaged out, etc but these modeled temps don't say southeast winter storm to me. What am I missing?
View attachment 61185
Click to expand...
The GEFS is probably too warm. But I agree, cold enough air to snow is going to be hard to come by until the 3rd week of January at the earliest imo. Going to be a lot of complaining and I'll likely be doing some of it.
 
ATLwxfan said:
The effects of the SSW would not be appreciated until the end of the month or early February, I believe. Until then I’m just hoping to not torch.


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Gonna be hard to torch when you basically have a el nino pattern with wave after wave after wave going under the block, wouldn’t shock me if we see a few 50/60 degree days, especially ahead any cold front but that’s been hard to sniff already
 
Cadi40 said:
For once in quite a while it appears that we are establishing a favorable pattern that won’t just become a torch next week. Because of the possible longevity of this pattern, I’d be almost certain that SOMEBODY on this board will see some sort of action in the near future.
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Yeah I remember in the past with a -EPO going from vodka cold at 12z to going to 15+ anomalies and the ridge flex centered over the SE trending west at 00z, -NAO over that anyday
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep basically, gonna be a barrage of pacific waves and maybe the 3rd or 4th one produces, than maybe that stuff around AK retrogrades which allows a PNA ridge and the real cold is on sight with that, but the latter part is still more of a question, although eventually one would think it would retrograde, would be nice to get that tall poleward ridge like the EPS shows towards the end of the run
Click to expand...
Yeah the western ridge is really the hope if you want to drive in legitimate long lasting cold where there is no doubt we have a shot at winter storms. Until then it's more of the seasonably cool stuff. Thankfully though it's mid winter and we can probably do ok with a well timed cP airmass in place with a suppressed pattern.
 
IMO, I wouldn't freak out about surface temps. I would look at 850s because based on this look if we do get a good storm track, we can get some CAA to cool the surface enough for snow. I'm not saying we'll see Vodka cold in week two, although, I wouldn't bet against that later in the month.
 
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