Webberweather53
Meteorologist
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
West TX again... Smh
Cadi40
Member
This is definitely a pattern I’m not used to seeing in past years. It seems like previously models have always shown below normal temperatures in the long range only to flip to a scorching SER at day 7. At least this year has shown the opposite. Regardless of snow, it’s been a decent winter thus far.
Looks like the super long range GFS finally responded to what we have been seeing for awhile. Cold coming down.
You can see on the GEFS a hint of some stuff going underneath the block 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Glosea5 shows the strong coupling I’ve been talking about between the SSW and west-based -NAO by mid-January. I think it starts even sooner than that in the 2nd week of the month, should make our NAO even stronger and much more persistent. These coupling events often yield at least semi continuous bursts of blocking for up to 1.5-2 months thereafter
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Epic torch! /s
Hot garbage
Marvelous March ?
ATLwxfan
Member
There is a perception (that I believe is true but probably I’m wrong) that torches always verify and cold is always over-modeled.
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Eh not really, Christmas torch that was advertised on models never verified
UKMET already looking interesting 
Nice 
I think most of us wonder why that can’t happen in their backyards as well. Lol.
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Dang only if that N/S stream energy in Canada could phase With the first wave to its south so it can “get stuck” in the NE and deliver cold 850s 
Just a friendly reminder we have 2 banter threads - If you wish to discuss how much we suck at winter weather proceed to the whamby thread, if it's general conversation type of post that don't add anything to the discussion about upcoming pattern, storm potential, etc take it to the "regular" banter. I just moved a number of post for this reason.
Thanks
Thanks
You have magic if you get that piece of energy in Canada to phase with with first system as that effectively shoves the next system south for a southern special and delivers the proper cold, just saying what’s good here, since this is still far out 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
12z EPS looking better thru day 7-8. Even more -NAO, a little more ridging over the Rockies, cut-offs progressing more nicely underneath the big block that's going up south of Greenland
Exactly why I wasn’t even worried tbh, even in the longer range you could tell it was a favorable pattern for stuff to undercut the block so it would be transient, especially with the active pacific jet bringing in system after system, in Niño style
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Above all else, it's definitely gonna be stormy for the next few weeks, at least 3 separate shortwaves &/or cut-off upper lows have emerged from the southern Rockies by day 9, and there's likely more on the way.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep. If we had just a little additional westerly momentum in the southern branch of the jet from El Nino this is when it would come in handy s.t. these cut-offs would progress faster to the east & limit the time for warm-ups. Even still, this is pretty good
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol Bamwx playing themselves, here comes the main lobe of the SPV towards N America, (not that it matters tbh)
Wow..... I haven’t seen stuff like this in a while 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Pacific jet starts backing off just a little bit in the 2nd week of January and here comes the +PNA.
Now we're talking
Now we're talking
Geez any sort of +PNA with that look ?
What a pattern
packfan98
Moderator
Definitely looks like a longwave pattern that will be conducive for long tracking Miller A's. My old man brain tells me that we need a trough in the east, ridge in the west, and cold air. Icing on the cake is the blocking to prevent cutting systems and to slow down the flow. Cautious optimism is warranted, but it's still a crap shoot on the eventual outcome and who might receive winter weather and to what extent.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is starting to evolve to that classic southern US overrunning look as the ridge builds towards Alaska. Just need a deeper trough over the Lakes to show up.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Beautiful, cold air will be our achilles heel but we're right at our peak climo temp wise.
Goodness.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Gonna try to hit the links tomorrow south of FAY, hoping this CAD breaks a little sooner than forecast...
Temps have been busting low thus far today vs NWS WFO forecasts.
Temps have been busting low thus far today vs NWS WFO forecasts.
Nice LR look! I would like some stronger high pressure though.
this is just insane at this point lol, ridging into the NW territories with a -AO/-NAO
I notice the euro/EPS seem to be much more bullish with the pattern and earlier then the GFS/GEFS
NCSNOW
Member
39 degrees and very light precip just started
ATLwxfan
Member
ATLwxfan
Member
Why is the GEFS so out to lunch?
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You could see cold air being thrown down from the arctic on the EPS 
Because it’s sucks, we toss
Oh. My.
that poleward ridge ? if that happens could air wouldnt be a problem
that poleward ridge ? if that happens could air wouldnt be a problem
Nice little PV lobe being pushed southward.