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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

SnowNiner said:
Actually yeah, pretty much. Until we get the cold on our side of the world with a -EPO, we're pretty much done IMO. I've officially converted. I no longer desire a -NAO, bring me back to the -EPO/+PNA regime any day.

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Not easy getting a -EPO/+PNA combo, most of the time when a -EPO happens, you dump the cold out west/central US and truly torch in the southeast (like 60s/70s on a daily lol), with a block in place you undercut or just don’t get a overall good and established southeast ridge, and stuff is more transient, when was the last time a -EPO/AK ridge block worked ? 2018 ?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Don’t get tired of the snow now
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Lol. I absolutely would get tired of it. But it would be cool to experience it for one winter. Get under one of those lake effect snow bands that spits out 4 inches an hour.

But really if we fail this winter too, I am going to consider moving elsewhere, like TN or MN. Give me snow or at least give us some severe weather to track.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Not easy getting a -EPO/+PNA combo, most of the time when a -EPO happens, you dump the cold out west/central US and truly torch in the southeast (like 60s/70s on a daily lol), with a block in place you undercut or just don’t get a overall good and established southeast ridge, and stuff is more transient, when was the last time a -EPO/AK ridge block worked ? 2018 ?
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Not to mention, the -EPO opens the door for the SER to start flexing and we can really go into a torch. Also I would be very wary of anything that the GEFS is showing past a week out. If you remember correctly back around the first and second week of December, the GEFS was wanting to torch the east coast for Christmas weekend and that’s obviously not happened.
 
ryan1234 said:
Lol. I absolutely would get tired of it. But it would be cool to experience it for one winter. Get under one of those lake effect snow bands that spits out 4 inches an hour.

But really if we fail this winter too, I am going to consider moving elsewhere, like TN or MN. Give me snow or at least give us some severe weather to track.
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Lake effect snow band = my 2nd thing I look forward to chasing
Also I’m thinking about Kansas/Oklahoma given some areas average double digit snow, and get extreme severe weather
 
Chazwin said:
Not to mention, the -EPO opens the door for the SER to start flexing and we can really go into a torch. Also I would be very wary of anything that the GEFS is showing past a week out. If you remember correctly back around the first and second week of December, the GEFS was wanting to torch the east coast for Christmas weekend and that’s obviously not happened.
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Give me Atlantic blocking over a NPAC ridge 0CFC1F6F-9EAF-4655-A5EF-E15899BA5271.gifDA15A9A5-94A8-4F63-A891-C68AD1DCE91F.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Lake effect snow band = my 2nd thing I look forward to chasing
Also I’m thinking about Kansas/Oklahoma given some areas average double digit snow, and get extreme severe weather
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I was on a work trip to Buffalo about 12 years ago and got experience one of those bands firsthand. From where the convention was at that I was attending, you could see the band and the wall of snow with it and when I drove to my hotel I found out that I was staying right in the middle of it. I literally went from seeing sun to driving in a 3 inch/hr snow squall over just a couple of miles.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Lake effect snow band = my 2nd thing I look forward to chasing
Also I’m thinking about Kansas/Oklahoma given some areas average double digit snow, and get extreme severe weather
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I am with you!

Although if I moved to the Midwest, it would have to be KC. I can't do rural, lol. OKC is okay, cheap housing! CLT is ridiculously expensive. And let's not discuss traffic.
 
The GFS and Euro suites are far apart on the magnitude of the upcoming SSW. Whereas the GFS is not even close to last year's and other recent SSWs, the Euro is quite impressive and even stronger than some recent SSWs. The placement of its center at the time of highest magnitude, which is close to the pole, is also much better on the Euro than the GFS, which is well away from the pole.

Also, If anything, the Euro suite keeps getting a little stronger with just about every run.

I don't recall past SSW progs being so far apart between those two models,
 
Rain Cold said:
Don't get me wrong, I'm glad December has not been torchy and that it felt like Christmas on Christmas. But we haven't had any sort of real chance for a winter storm, not most of us. So I'm not ready to cash out just yet.
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Oh I’m with u .. far from cashing out
Storm5 said:
Punting the impacts of the SSW until the last past of January I see . Same sh** different year


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not really punting? Effects of this event were never suppose to be felt in early January they usually lag behind the event itself ... meaning second half of January looks fairly stout for some cold to start getting into the mix around here.. always been the case I thought
 
GaWx said:
The GFS and Euro suites are far apart on the magnitude of the upcoming SSW. Whereas the GFS is not even close to last year's and other recent SSWs, the Euro is quite impressive and even stronger than some recent SSWs. The placement of its center at the time of highest magnitude, which is close to the pole, is also much better on the Euro than the GFS, which is well away from the pole.

Also, If anything, the Euro suite keeps getting a little stronger with just about every run.

I don't recall past SSW progs being so far apart between those two models,
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Correction. I wasn't looking at the location of the GFS SSW peak correctly. It is actually similarly placed to the Euro. But it is much weaker. You be the judge:

12Z GEFS:
1609102386004.png


12Z EPS: much more expansive and stronger than the GEFS with ~+45 C anomaly at the center on this map vs only in the +20s for the GEFS:
1609102407418.png
 
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