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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Nothing to hang your hat on, but 00z ECMWF spits out some snow for the NC mountains and a small sliver of snow/mixed precip in southern NC.
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pretty encouraged to see the 6z gfs improve over 00z with some more precip, and the nam (albeit the long range) continues to show more precip over northern sc/southern nc. can't help but love where we are sitting 72hrs out as we hope for the precip shield to expand northwest. would much rather be hoping for rates to overcome 2m temps with plenty cold 850s than the other way around.
 
6z euro. I don't have the 6z EPS
Screenshot 2020-01-27 at 8.17.47 AM.png

Temps were good/close for many just need more precip
Screenshot 2020-01-27 at 8.20.13 AM.png

However, still, plenty of time to worry about precip
 
I've noticed the NAM tends to over amp at first with precipitation then gets drier as the event gets closer anybody else noticed this?
 
Mcdowell_weather said:
I've noticed the NAM tends to over amp at first with precipitation then gets drier as the event gets closer anybody else noticed this?
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I've noticed it too but I saw someone yesterday say that these systems tend to overperform more than not so maybe its right.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This longstanding tendency isn't necessarily true in the more recent "upgraded" versions of the model.
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I forgot about the upgrade. I hope it helps. I'd love to have the total Namm'ed snow it's showed me in the last ten years lol Thanks Webb
 
NCSNOW said:
If you want to still live in the south and enjoy Snow. Heres the place to be, atleast this morning it is.

www.resortcams.com

Beech Mountain Resort Summit Cam - Resort Cams

Located at an elevation of 5,506 feet on the deck of the Skybar, this Beech Mountain webcam gives a great view of the ski resort and surrounding mountains.
www.resortcams.com www.resortcams.com
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The top of Grandfather looks amazing right now..check that cam out
 
Chazwin said:
Do you think this has some similarities to the March 2017 event??
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This is nothing like the March 2017 event, which was a clipper that got suppressed due to a nice 50-50 low. This system is southern-stream centric oth and will be moisture starved. 4-5 days out most of us were looking at the potential for possibly a light-moderate hit in Mar 2017.

We were seeing EPS runs like this 4-5 days out.

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If you're hoping for snow in NC, this is not a trend you'd want to see pan out in NWP. The northern stream wave separating and getting out in front of our main s/w over the Gulf coast squashes our weak low pressure system further offshore, limits lift across the area, and forces the main axis of light snow towards the mid-Atlantic. We really want to root for that wave over Iowa & Missouri to phase w/ the southern stream sooner and dig further south, which would focus more CVA into NC instead of VA.


icon_z500_vort_us_fh48_trend.gif
 
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