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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

As much as I hate to say this because I cannot stand the Farmers almanac but they have been spot-on for the southeast so far this winter
 
deltadog03 said:
GFS already closed at HR54 heading south
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Yeah, looks to me like 12Z GFS is actually slight improvement at H5 vs 6Z though it still almost definitely won’t be good enough. Still too early to give all clear on this yet imo. Like Webb says, still 5-10% chance.
 
MichaelJ said:
GSO has no measurable reported snowfall so far for 2019-20 winter, but winter is far from over. February will likely see some (law of averages) and March is also possible. This area HAS been totally shutout out in regards to snowfall in the past however. The winters of 1922-23, 1924-25, 1927-28, 1944-45, 1949-50, 1952-53, 1990-91 and 1999-2000 recorded 0.0 snow for the winters. This does not mean we did not get some ice those years (as we most likely did) but snowless years can and will happen from time to time. As you would expect, all years with the exception of 1944-45 were well above normal temp wise but 1944-45 was actually BN for the winter average. I guess my message here is that, while fairly rare, snowless winters here are not unprecedented.
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As a contractor I can tell you we have not went a year where we didn't put out salt or ice melt in a very long time. We have had several storms in February looking back at our records especially between feb 10-15 and again 22nd through 27th. 2009 on March 1st winston got 8 inches on a friday and couldn't find a snow flake on Monday. The last week of February in 2009 was in 60s. Snowed march 1st and went to 70s over the weekend. Was melting underneath it about as fast as we could plow it. So no winter not over but could be to. Unfortunately ground temps are creeping up pretty good to.
 
GaWx said:
Yeah, looks to me like 12Z GFS is actually slight improvement at H5 vs 6Z though it still almost definitely won’t be good enough. Still too early to give all clear on this yet imo. Like Webb says, still 5-10% chance.
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I will say that RH levels were higher this run.
 
Also the MVP is still looking way negative ... which means the MJO means nothing .. we’re heading into good phases to get snow but then it doesn’t matter cause MVP is so low that the phases don’t matter ... at least if we go back to warm phases those won’t matter either so now we have to start looking at other things that are going to help us out
 
Webberweather53 said:
Just when you thought the long-range couldn't get any uglier...

If this generally verifies, we're probably punting until at least mid-February

The clock is ticking on this winter & we're about to run out of time.

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Just in time for fab feb, when Dixie alley events starting working with more instability Again as we head out the deepest part of winter
 
Webberweather53 said:
Just when you thought the long-range couldn't get any uglier...

If this generally verifies, we're probably punting until at least mid-February

The clock is ticking on this winter & we're about to run out of time.

View attachment 31397

View attachment 31398
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I saw that the thing that the MVP is still negative and so the mjo phases don’t really matter in that case and have basically no effect on the weather here until that MVP goes positive
 
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Nick_boynton_ said:
I saw that the thing that the MVP is still negative and so the mjo phases don’t really matter in that case and have basically no effect on the weather here until that MVP goes positive
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It’s sorta the opposite of what your saying, even with phases in 7-8, it won’t really matter, phase 5-6 will still likely mean warmth, especially phase 5
 
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