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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Don’t let the NAM do it to you guys! It’s still too positively tilted to work.I was coming here to post this, I'm sure it's not coming back but I'd be willing to bet we get one good pull us back in run from the NAM. I mean this is soooo close
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Jon
Member
I was coming here to post this, I'm sure it's not coming back but I'd be willing to bet we get one good pull us back in run from the NAM. I mean this is soooo close
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If no other modeling is on it I would venture to guess this is the Nam bias of over amping shortwaves. I was more confident when the euro was on its side a few days ago but it looks like we won’t even squeak out flurries on the coast. That’s sad.
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Agreed but it's gone from way too positively tilted to just to positively tilted... Lol. I'd rather look at this then the inevitable torch waiting in the wings
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Its closed at h7 and h85 too and the flow is southeast or east at those levels with moisture coming inland. Its probably too late verbatim but if other models have that look at 84 hrs its workable especially along and east of 95
Love that look south of Alaska ?? it’s gonna come back sooner or later along with the -PNA, I mean it’s a pattern that has been very dominant
L
Logan Is An Idiot 01
Guest
I wouldn't even say a torch is coming. I'd say we have a couple storms in the next 2 weeks that bring warm air for a day or two, then when the storm moves out the temperature drops again. Cold and dry warm and wet. Theme of southern Winters.
MichaelJ
Member
GSO has no measurable reported snowfall so far for 2019-20 winter, but winter is far from over. February will likely see some (law of averages) and March is also possible. This area HAS been totally shutout out in regards to snowfall in the past however. The winters of 1922-23, 1924-25, 1927-28, 1944-45, 1949-50, 1952-53, 1990-91 and 1999-2000 recorded 0.0 snow for the winters. This does not mean we did not get some ice those years (as we most likely did) but snowless years can and will happen from time to time. As you would expect, all years with the exception of 1944-45 were well above normal temp wise but 1944-45 was actually BN for the winter average. I guess my message here is that, while fairly rare, snowless winters here are not unprecedented.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
ICON is clearly going in the wrong direction.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
1922-23, 1924-25, & 1927-28 were not shutouts in GSO.
GSO snowfall data is unreliable before 1930, there some are egregious reporting errors in the SERCC NOWData that I've taken note of & recorded in my winter storm reconstruction.
Gotta realize Cold phases of the MJO aren’t gonna start doing much as we head into the more later parts of winter as the do in early/mid winter
Maybe a slight cool down in there but 10 days AN isn't exactly cold and dry, warm and wet imho... that's borderline torch.
Yeah, 12Z run slightly worse but was trending better through 0Z (1st 3 maps of loop). Still too far out and too close to NC OB and even NE FL for me to totally give up as still just far out enough for that good trend to resume. And only thing to watch for wintry in SE anytime soon. But odds low (10%?).
Regardless, some nice cold days early to mid week coming.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 01
Guest
The high temperatures aren't too warm. But the lows are disappointing for middle of January standards
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Well no, none of the maps have trended better, every single run in this animation (even thru 0z) has shown a weaker & more positively tilted trough axis.
So have you 100% given up already even for the coast?
Shaggy
Member
I was slightly hopeful for this to turn into something for us but so far the models arent buying. I've seen plenty of large changes inside 48 to 72 hours. Cant even begin to tell you the number of times I've had storms suddenly shift west in that time frame and snatch victory from us coastal guys.
I'll watch another 36 hours. Perhaps this is the models losing the storm(even though there was never really a storm persay) like they do in the 4 to 7 day range sometimes. Maybe we will see the models slowly trend back to their closer almost there runs as we get inside 72 hours.
Doubt it though.
GFS already closed at HR54 heading south