Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

[Webberweather53]

Again, can we keep the banter-eque and whamby posts in the proper threads? It's not that hard to do.

One poster is continuously posting poorly misconstrued one-liners & spreading misinformation in this thread and apparently they could care less if their information is accurate, on topic, or has much substance to begin with and next to nothing has been done to curb their obvious trolling. When their posts get shot down by other more prominent, honest bloggers, they're the ones being punished for it & receiving complaints about clogging up the forum with "garbage".

Something clearly doesn't add up.

 

[Goose88]

12z euro has some extremely light and scattered snow showers in miss ala and Georgia on Tuesday .


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At this point I'll take what we can get

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Interesting low topped supercell in Mississippi

 

[Webberweather53]

12z euro has some extremely light and scattered snow showers in miss ala and Georgia on Tuesday .


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With the coastal low continuously trending out to sea, a few isolated snow showers directly underneath the CVA max is the best hope for anyone on the board to see snow. Needs to be enough lift and snow growth in the DGZ to get snow however, without it, you're looking at drizzle or even sleet.

 

[deltadog03]

I know this is stretching but euro now how has a small area on snow accumulations map across AL and Ga.

 

[deltadog03]

With the coastal low continuously trending out to sea, a few isolated snow showers directly underneath the CVA max is the best hope for anyone on the board to see snow. Needs to be enough lift and snow growth in the DGZ to get snow however, without it, you're looking at drizzle or even sleet.

View attachment 31403

That is an improvement for sure. Yes gasping at straws here

 

[ForsythSnow]

One poster is continuously posting poorly misconstrued one-liners & spreading misinformation in this thread and apparently they could care less if their information is accurate, on topic, or has much substance to begin with and next to nothing has been done to curb their obvious trolling. When their posts get shot down by other more prominent, honest bloggers, they're the ones being punished for it & receiving complaints about clogging up the forum with "garbage".

Something clearly doesn't add up.

I'd advise ignoring them. By responding to them not only are you giving reason for them to persist, but it ends up getting your post deleted because the quoted post gets deleted. We took care of the other poster's posts too and you aren't being punished in any way.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That is an improvement for sure. Yes gasping at straws here

Likely be very spotty flurries/drizzle with this look, combating dry air at low levels, even with a moist DGZ, but lift is unimpressive in it, and it’s very light precip, so it probably still wouldn’t make it, but it’s close to a few snowflakes

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Euro at least looks colder in its medium range for some in the upper south .. still not favorable for snow I don’t think but better I guess

 

[deltadog03]

Likely be very spotty flurries/drizzle with this look, combating dry air at low levels, even with a moist DGZ, but lift is unimpressive in it, and it’s very light precip, so it probably still wouldn’t make it, but it’s close to a few snowflakes View attachment 31404View attachment 31405

Oh I agree...not looking at much if anything, but it is an improvement for sure.

 

[ajr]

Probably a little early to be doing a retrospective, but seeing the direction things are going in, it makes me curious about some of the earlier seasonal forecasts that were calling for cold around this time of the year. Purely from a learning standpoint, what ended up changing that a lot of those forecasts went "bust"? I know this sort of thing is difficult to get right, but thoughtful folks like Masiello were forecasting cold around this time of the year, so something changed in the overall pattern since then.

 

[Jon]

It’s sorta the opposite of what your saying, even with phases in 7-8, it won’t really matter, phase 5-6 will still likely mean warmth, especially phase 5

He’s talking about Carl Schrecks research that I’ve posted. It doesn’t discriminate between cold and warm phases, if the MVP isn’t in the favorable state (-,0,+) then the MJO doesn’t drive the corresponding expected temperatures of the USA by phase. AKA the MJO is not the pattern driver and “doesn’t matter” from a North American weather impacts aspect.

So just because it’s Phase 5-6 doesn’t necessarily mean it will torch, they could be climo normal which would put us at risk for at least seasonally appropriate weather in feb.

Phase 5 is only a torch with a -MVP

We’re at an impressive -MVP that hit -2.9 on 1/15

We have only been below -2.82 one other time during the 1979-2011 period, and that was -3.12 on 3/6/85 and then -3.43 on 3/7/85

So as far as the MVP goes we are making history during the DJF winter months. It seems like we won’t dig out of a -MVP by the time Phase 5 rolls around but we only have to make it over -0.75 to be considered “0” or neutral.

To add, you can see the bias here when talking generally about MJO phases. There’s zero torches in Phase 8 and 1, no matter the MVP state (-,0,+) which is why people associate those phases so much with cold...at worst it’s seasonable. At best it’s below normal.

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[GaWx]

View attachment 31375


View attachment 31376

How bad is the CFS? (and cold biased although all models have been cold biased recently duh....I just looked back and about only time I can find CFS was consistently too warm recently was before the only recent cold month, Nov, although it corrected to a cold Nov late in Oct ). Check out how much colder this very next CFS run is for much of the US, especially weeks 4-6 (not posting these because I believe it since I realize it has been cold biased like the rest of the models):

 

[Webberweather53]

He’s talking about Carl Schrecks research that I’ve posted. It doesn’t discriminate between cold and warm phases, if the MVP isn’t in the favorable state (-,0,+) then the MJO doesn’t drive the corresponding expected temperatures of the USA by phase. AKA the MJO is not the pattern driver and “doesn’t matter” from a North American weather impacts aspect.

So just because it’s Phase 5-6 doesn’t necessarily mean it will torch, they could be climo normal which would put us at risk for at least seasonally appropriate weather in feb.

Phase 5 is only a torch with a -MVP

We’re at an impressive -MVP that hit -2.9 on 1/15

We have only been below -2.82 one other time during the 1979-2011 period, and that was -3.12 on 3/6/85 and then -3.43 on 3/7/85

So as far as the MVP goes we are making history during the DJF winter months. It seems like we won’t dig out of a -MVP by the time Phase 5 rolls around but we only have to make it over -0.75 to be considered “0” or neutral.


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I definitely don't see us digging ourselves out of this -MVP hole anytime soon.

A blowtorch warm start to February is more likely than seasonable or cold temperatures based on the -MVP + return of phase 5-6 MJO + low frequency base state changes + persistence.

 

[Stormlover]

12z euro has some extremely light and scattered snow showers in miss ala and Georgia on Tuesday .


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this?

 

[Jon]

I definitely don't see us digging ourselves out of this -MVP hole anytime soon.

A blowtorch warm start to February is more likely than seasonable or cold temperatures based on the -MVP + return of phase 5-6 MJO + low frequency base state changes + persistence.

Yeah I’d have to agree. I don’t see anything outside of a major PV disruption or a -AO run that would be a driver in this pattern to change cooler. Any forecasted pattern changes cooler for February as we inch closer in the 15-day need to be taken with a huge grain of salt.


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[NickyBGuarantee]

I definitely don't see us digging ourselves out of this -MVP hole anytime soon.

A blowtorch warm start to February is more likely than seasonable or cold temperatures based on the -MVP + return of phase 5-6 MJO + low frequency base state changes + persistence.

I thought Jon was saying the fact that it is at this negative point (the MVP) that means there’s little to no correlation with regards to the driving pattern over North America? Can someone explain more am I missing something?

 

[Webberweather53]

Yeah I’d have to agree. I don’t see anything outside of a major PV disruption or a -AO run that would be a driver in this pattern to change cooler. Any forecasted pattern changes cooler for February as we inch closer in the 15-day need to be taken with a huge grain of salt.


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I think any opportunity for legitimate winter around here has been narrowed to basically mid-February thru early March only because uncertainty is larger w/ range, so we have about 3 maybe 4 weeks of winter left to work w/ to come up w/ a good pattern. I've definitely seen worse looking patterns than what we're going into but that isn't saying much imo.

Continued warmth seems ever-so-slightly more probable than colder than normal conditions however during this mid-Feb to early March period.

We're definitely running out of time.

 

[GaWx]

Yeah I’d have to agree. I don’t see anything outside of a major PV disruption or a -AO run that would be a driver in this pattern to change cooler. Any forecasted pattern changes cooler for February as we inch closer in the 15-day need to be taken with a huge grain of salt.


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As of now, my wild guess is mild Feb (though not as warm anomalywise as Dec/Jan) and chilly Mar. similar to 1889-90 and 1931-2 when Mar was THE coldest month in absolutes and somewhat similar to 2012-3, when it easily had the coldest anomalies.

 

[GaWx]

18Z ICON: Slight improvement vs 12Z (still holding on to 10% chance):

18Z


12Z