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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

In terms of area potentially affected & overall evolution of this s/w, January 22 2011 isn't a bad analog to this storm for the middle part of this week if we can nudge the surface low track a little further NW. There would be a lot of cliff jumping in central NC if Morehead City & Cape Hatteras received accumulating snow this winter and RDU, CLT, & GSO didn't.

icon_z500_vort_us_26.png

012221.gif

January 22 2011 NC Snowmap.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
In terms of area potentially affected & overall evolution of this s/w, January 22 2011 isn't a bad analog to this storm for the middle part of this week if we can nudge the surface low track a little further NW. There would be a lot of cliff jumping in central NC if Morehead City & Cape Hatteras received accumulating snow this winter and RDU, CLT, & GSO didn't.

View attachment 31414

View attachment 31413

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The last time I can find an instance where the SE coast of NC saw accumulating snow whereas most everyone east of the mountains in NC was in the strong NINO winter of 1991-92.

January 19-20 1992 NC Snowmap.png

It's actually more frustrating because Birmingham, Atlanta, and central Mississippi also scored while Charlotte & Raleigh were basically shutout.

??????

January 16-1992 southern US snowmap.png
 
This should lift a few spirits & while it is before most of our times, OTD in 1955 we were contending with a @Rain Cold special, nearly 10" of snow fell in Fuquay-Varina.
January 18-19 1955 NC Snowmap.png


A few days later, Charlotte-Raleigh would get cored again.
January 23-24 1955 NC Snowmap.png

Then another nickel & dime event to top things off a few days after that.
January 27-29 1955 NC Snowmap.png


It wasn't exactly the most sexy looking pattern, but having a wave in the right place at the right time w/ cold air is all that's needed sometimes

compday.b0Q8BldECX.gif

Tbh, the hemispheric-scale pattern associated w/ that huge storm on Jan 18-19 1955 doesn't look that dissimilar to the 10-15 atm. If we make a few minor tweaks, we'd basically have this pattern again. Obviously the basic state climate is warmer which sucks (& may override everything), but maybe we can pull one out of our ***. With the way this winter is going I wouldn't hold my breath.

compday.vNyj4bMIBJ (1).gif

download (43).png
 
Webberweather53 said:
This should lift a few spirits & while it is before most of our times, OTD in 1955 we were contending with a @Rain Cold special, nearly 10" of snow fell in Fuquay-Varina.
View attachment 31420


A few days later, Charlotte-Raleigh would get cored again.
View attachment 31421

Then another nickel & dime event to top things off a few days after that.
View attachment 31422


It wasn't exactly the most sexy looking pattern, but having a wave in the right place at the right time w/ cold air is all that's needed sometimes

View attachment 31423

Tbh, the hemispheric-scale pattern associated w/ that huge storm on Jan 18-19 1955 doesn't look that dissimilar to the 10-15 atm. If we make a few minor tweaks, we'd basically have this pattern again. Obviously the basic state climate is warmer which sucks (& may override everything), but maybe we can pull one out of our ***. With the way this winter is going I wouldn't hold my breath.

View attachment 31425

View attachment 31426
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The only glimmer of hope we have here in the 10-15 is that we need to hope/pray this big trough off Atlantic Canada trends stronger in later runs and nudges closer to Atlantic Canada, and the ridge just off the US west coast slides just a tad eastward as we close in on verification. Those large-scale chances might give us an outside chance to have a CAD/Miller B event (of course it still may not be cold enough for IP/ZR), otherwise zzzz.

I'm probably definitely grasping at straws, but there's literally nothing else to talk about on the horizon.
North America NCEPR1 z500a NC Miller B Winter Storms (1948-2019).png

download (44).png
 
The JMA is interesting for the 10-16 day period. Builds a -EPO (go figure) and stormy on the east coast.

JMA_new10-16.png

I wonder, is this just hogwash? The Euro EPS and GEFS doesn't have this at all.

Well, the JMA has been on an impressive streak of accuracy for the 10-16 day period lately.


Here is the Jan 1 forecast for Week 2 (1/11-16) vs actual

Jan01_Day10-16.png
and Dec 25 forecast for Week 2 vs actual

Dec25_Day10-16.png

Dec 18 forecast for Week 2 vs actual...

Dec18_10-16day.png

Dec 11 forecast for Week 2 vs actual...

Dec11_Day10-16.PNG

Dec 4 forecast for Week 2 vs actual..not perfect, but not terrible.

Dec04_Day10-16.PNG


Makes me wonder!
 
This is a write up that I did earlier today, this is a revised version for the forum and I have added more thoughts. Of course, I could add more to this, but it would become incredibly long. I can add more to this post later on.

I'm still predicting a snow storm to occur sometime during the last week of this month or sometime in early February, and it remains very possible that there could be a winter storm. The map I added (that I drew) is what I think will be occurring during the last week of this month into early February. The PNA (Pacific North American) is predicted to go neutral to positive as February approaches. This would mean a western ridge would develop and cause lower heights over the Eastern US. It's looking like a number of amplifying low pressure system's that gain very high latitude in far Eastern Canada (50°N-60°N) during the last week of this month into early February would disrupt the single polar vortex, creating a smaller polar vorticity over East-Central Canada. I've seen some models showing 850s low as -30c, surface temps low as -25f in East-Central Canada towards the end of the last week of this month. Those very cold surface and upper air temps are definitely an indication of a PV lobe (smaller scale PV) I'm predicting that the temps here (Southeastern US) would be seasonally or slightly above normal late next week (moderation of temps) going back to below normal by the last week of this month into early February.

Diagram.jpg



• Large Scale Weather Pattern

I'm going with the CFS model to forecast/predict as to what is to come in the longer term (February) because it's been very consistent. The pattern is shaping up to favor a elongation of the single polar vortex. Polar vortex axis from Siberia into East-Central Canada. Steep pole ward ridging over the Eastern Pacific/PNA region and across Europe would be basically "squeezing/stretching" the single PV causing it to become elongated. So, it's possible that there could be a larger PV disruption/split later on next month. I'm predicting that much of February will have below temps for the Southeastern US. The temps. could be much below normal by mid to late February depending on what happens with the PV in during early February and if there will be a downward propagation of the PV. So, it's possible that we could experience brutal cold conditions by mid February that could be long established. We'll also need to watch for warmer SSTs in the Gulf of Alaska later on, that could create mid-troposphere ridging. If this were to occur, of course there would be a -EPO. SSTs could warm in the Gulf of Alaska due to eastern Pacific ridging, pole ward warming. February could be -5 to -15 below normal, possibly colder. That's just a guess, I would have better prediction with those numbers as February gets closer.

CFS_pv.jpg

• What Does this All Mean?

Well, it looks like the pattern would be shaping up to favor long duration cold and not transient cold around here in the longer range. The southern stream is looking like it would become active, so I do believe that there would be a number of storm system's tracking along the southern stream starting during the last week of this month into early February. Considering an active southern branch as well as the possibility of long duration cold of below to possibly much below temps, there would be an increase chance than normal of frozen precipitation as well as winter storm development in the Southeastern US.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The last time I can find an instance where the SE coast of NC saw accumulating snow whereas most everyone east of the mountains in NC was in the strong NINO winter of 1991-92.

View attachment 31418

It's actually more frustrating because Birmingham, Atlanta, and central Mississippi also scored while Charlotte & Raleigh were basically shutout.

??????

View attachment 31417
Click to expand...

I recall this storm. I was leaving the movie theater (the movie Juice) with a couple of friends, and we came out of the theater to a light snow storm (it occurred at night). We met up with another friend after the movie, and I remember I was the only one concerned (or elated about the snow) and hoping it would ramp up. It was basically a light event and tapered off after a couple hours or so.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This should lift a few spirits & while it is before most of our times, OTD in 1955 we were contending with a @Rain Cold special, nearly 10" of snow fell in Fuquay-Varina.
View attachment 31420


A few days later, Charlotte-Raleigh would get cored again.
View attachment 31421

Then another nickel & dime event to top things off a few days after that.
View attachment 31422


It wasn't exactly the most sexy looking pattern, but having a wave in the right place at the right time w/ cold air is all that's needed sometimes

View attachment 31423

Tbh, the hemispheric-scale pattern associated w/ that huge storm on Jan 18-19 1955 doesn't look that dissimilar to the 10-15 atm. If we make a few minor tweaks, we'd basically have this pattern again. Obviously the basic state climate is warmer which sucks (& may override everything), but maybe we can pull one out of our ***. With the way this winter is going I wouldn't hold my breath.

View attachment 31425

View attachment 31426
Click to expand...

The Columbia area also picked up 10" in the January 18-19, 1955 storm. I'm rather confident that is the particular storm my mom once mentioned to me.
 
@Jon

That's actually really interesting, I didn't even know the JMA had ensembles, lol.

One thing I would be curious about would be how it looks on the next release. I may be missing something on the JMA site, but it looks like the ensemble is only run there every 7 days?

The reason I ask about that is I think most of the ensembles started to flip around the 14th or so, just as the +AAM mess started to show up:





Trend of the GEPS centered on 1/26/20:

giphy.gif








Trend of the GEFS centered on the same day:

giphy.gif






And the EPS:

giphy.gif


Those verification scores for the JMA ensembles look great, so hopefully it's on to something.
 
baroowoofr said:
@Jon

That's actually really interesting, I didn't even know the JMA had ensembles, lol.

One thing I would be curious about would be how it looks on the next release. I may be missing something on the JMA site, but it looks like the ensemble is only run there every 7 days?
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That’s right. Once weekly, it’s ran on Wednesday and released Thursday mornings.



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Jon said:
That’s right. Once weekly, it’s ran on Wednesday and released Thursday mornings.



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Click to expand...
Wow! Thanks for the analysis Jon! I have a new found respect for the JMA. This may be the new "go to" for longer range data!
 
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SD said:
Good lord the AAM is off the charts? I'm sure by mid summer it'll be off the charts negative
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That’s what happens when you have a gigantic west pacific mjo event coupled with a nino leaning base state and an extra tropical circulation pattern that’s receptive to +AAM build up in the tropics (poleward subtropical highs). Need to see this +AAM propagate poleward instead of being refracted back into the tropics, this would encourage a deceleration of the westerly jet (& more -NAO/AO tendency). I’m afraid the +NAM is too strong atm and we’ll see refraction instead of poleward propagation deep into the extratropics.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I thought Jon was saying the fact that it is at this negative point (the MVP) that means there’s little to no correlation with regards to the driving pattern over North America? Can someone explain more am I missing something?
Click to expand...

Negative doesn’t mean no correlation, it’s just a state of the MVP. You have to match the current state of the MVP up to this picture and then compare it to the MJO phase, the see if it is influencing the current pattern. If it matches, that means the MJO is driving the temperatures over the US.


394d16fbbe44d124a71e330b44742a0a.jpg


Even though the MJO is at high amplitude and is influencing global patterns, it could have little influence over the USA as in, something else is driving the cold or warmth — and the MJO wouldn’t play the “main role”

Think of MVP state (-, 0, or +) as a “check” or “control” for the MJO...after all, that’s why it was developed...to determine which MJO events have influence over the NA temperatures.

The reason we want to dig out of the -MVP is because the MJO influences the USA in Phase 7 bringing cold temperatures ONLY when MVP is 0 or neutral, between -0.75 and 0.75. Schreck determined this correlated with cold temperatures in the CONUS.

f44fcf9583b498f4259294df2c47875e.jpg


It’s technically not cold East but it would be cold anchored over the lakes, which wouldn’t hurt as it would be in our backyard.

So if we don’t dig over -0.75, and we are still in phase 7, then according to this research the MJO is not the driver of the current pattern.

I’ll add that this isn’t perfect (no index is, for example just because we have a -AO we don’t have cold, etc)


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1579390184176.gif

The JMA’s MJO forecast has kind of been out to lunch lately and is way too amped in the central pacific and thus it takes longer for the wave to attenuate, which is why it’s showing phase 8 propagation. While I don’t think this scenario is impossible, given the forecast initialization errors and that this winter has been marred by strong/persistent +EPO (that the GEFS & EPS forecast) and that both the GEFS & ECMWF depict degeneration into phase 7, I’m skeptical of the nice -EPO JMA forecast in week 2. When the GEFS & ECMWF MJO forecasts agree (which doesn’t happen often), they’re usually correct. From multiple standpoints I’m cautious to buy into the JMA in spite of its recent string of forecast verification
 
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