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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Uptick in freezing rain NC on oz Nam. Needs to start earlier than mid afternoon . Would present a nice friendly elevated glaze
 
GaWx said:
Thanks! Not to jinx it, but I don't recall ever seeing anything like that at @pcbjr's place on ANY EPS run as long as the EPS members have been available. Keep in mind that for the 1/2018 coastal storm, models never showed SN down there since 850s were well above 0C. The threat there was never more than for some ZR.

Regarding KSAV, I'm almost 100% sure 1/2018 showed nothing like that this far in advance because the precip was progged to be all offshore. Keep in mind that until just a couple of days before it, only some ICON and NAM runs had any precip making it back onshore. The ICON took the lead in showing a surface low forming off SE FL and then moving NNE instead of the NE that other models were showing. This ICON modeled NNE move ended up verifying correctly, which brought back precip to the SE coast and the rest is history. The GFS/Euro had nothing this far in advance because all precip was well offshore. Then the Euro slowly started creeping back to the coast. The GFS remained clueless almost to the start time!

Based on this and especially if this threat continues on the Euro, I may start paying attention to the ICON. I just noticed that the 12Z Wed ICON actually had wintry precip back to the SE coast though that wasn't on later runs.
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I know it’s the GEPS but here are the last three runs with its precipitation field...
8de3d9ab460374060e056e8e70e7e6de.png
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Interesting that any minute change could really change the short term storm like that ... skeptical but if this ended up coming that far west than we know the north west trend is alive and well
 
Also has anyone noticed that the euro tends to be not that wild in the strength of its lows and highs in its longer term range .. like the Gfs always can get some really wound up look but the euro always looks smoothed out and than trends stronger as time gets closer
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Also has anyone noticed that the euro tends to be not that wild in the strength of its lows and highs in its longer term range .. like the Gfs always can get some really wound up look but the euro always looks smoothed out and than trends stronger as time gets closer
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Probably because it’s more realistic than the terrible GFS, lmfao
 
GaWx said:
Thanks! Not to jinx it, but I don't recall ever seeing anything like that at @pcbjr's place on ANY EPS run as long as the EPS members have been available. Keep in mind that for the 1/2018 coastal storm, models never showed SN down there since 850s were well above 0C. The threat there was never more than for some ZR.

Regarding KSAV, I'm almost 100% sure 1/2018 showed nothing like that this far in advance because the precip was progged to be all offshore. Keep in mind that until just a couple of days before it, only some ICON and NAM runs had any precip making it back onshore. The ICON took the lead in showing a surface low forming off SE FL and then moving NNE instead of the NE that other models were showing. This ICON modeled NNE move ended up verifying correctly, which brought back precip to the SE coast and the rest is history. The GFS/Euro had nothing this far in advance because all precip was well offshore. Then the Euro slowly started creeping back to the coast. The GFS remained clueless almost to the start time!

Based on this and especially if this threat continues on the Euro, I may start paying attention to the ICON. I just noticed that the 12Z Wed ICON actually had wintry precip back to the SE coast though that wasn't on later runs.
Click to expand...

I stand corrected:

http://southernwx.com/community/thr...he-arcc-xtreme-weather-special.318/post-71987
 
ForsythSnow said:
Quite a shift west for sure. I'm rooting for those light snow showers in Georgia though. If that low comes more west might be able to get that here. NW trend here it is.
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If we close off aloft you could probably get s few snow showers back your way
Downeastnc said:
So close to being something special...its not often the snow misses me 50 miles to the east lol....
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Yeah it really was. You need 50 miles I need 100 I wonder if we can accomplish either

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