L
Logan Is An Idiot 01
Guest
Pretty sad that everywhere is going to be very cold for the majority of next week and the best chance of snow is on the coast. Lol
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
NCSNOW
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- Dec 2, 2016
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In addition the NCSNOW 42 day forecast of -1 starts tommorow. It will get off to a banter start as the next 7 days are forecasted by NWS to average BN to much Below. Prospects to get to seasonal climo for snowfall the remainder of the season in spite of sitting at 0.00 currently, look nill next 5 to 7 days.
FWIW, the pattern change is occurring tonight at the ski resorts in the s/e. They look awful but should be able to add something for the MLK crowds. Snow guns full force tonight.
Shaggy
Member
I'm still sitting right where I want to for that threat. A miss is no biggie but if that energy that kicks this offshore is delayed or slower and we can creep some precip back towards I95 then theres a chance for me.
Six Mile Wx
Member
I also believe that the loss of all the arctic Ice is having an effect!
Speaking of this threat, the 18Z EPS continues the 12Z trend of inching closer to the SE coast for the 1/21-2 potential coastal threat: don't go to sleep on this one yet
0Z EPS:
12Z EPS:
18Z EPS:
That 18z eps is about where you would want it at this lead
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Uh, @pcbjr do you realize the 18Z EPS has nearly 20% of its members with snow in N FL?!? Also, it has about 1/3 of its members with coastal SE snow!
pcbjr
Member
Uh, yes I do, but with my recent track record I didn't want to post and jinx the ship ...
That's really interesting. I like how the ridge is expanding over the lakes to the north of the trough. May just be a temporary blip but of the trend continues at 0z we are certainly going in the right direction
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Six Mile Wx
Member
Just remember it doesn't take but one or 2 good events in the south for it to be a good year. I still think most of us in the south will get our snow at some point this winter. All we got is hope, the moisture looks like it's going to be there we just got to get the cold to come in at the right time. Long range does look like it is going to a little BN at least I think, at some point I think we will some much BN the key is how long and can it time up with moisture. But from now till mid march we should have some chances, maybe not a ton in deep south but even there may get a shot or 2. I have to believe the mid and upper south will score at some point.
Six Mile Wx
Member
NCCWOP9077
Member
The JMA (FWIW) trended west since yesterdays run.
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Yes please keep that trend.
Thanks! Not to jinx it, but I don't recall ever seeing anything like that at @pcbjr's place on ANY EPS run as long as the EPS members have been available. Keep in mind that for the 1/2018 coastal storm, models never showed SN down there since 850s were well above 0C. The threat there was never more than for some ZR.
Regarding KSAV, I'm almost 100% sure 1/2018 showed nothing like that this far in advance because the precip was progged to be all offshore. Keep in mind that until just a couple of days before it, only some ICON and NAM runs had any precip making it back onshore. The ICON took the lead in showing a surface low forming off SE FL and then moving NNE instead of the NE that other models were showing. This ICON modeled NNE move ended up verifying correctly, which brought back precip to the SE coast and the rest is history. The GFS/Euro had nothing this far in advance because all precip was well offshore. Then the Euro slowly started creeping back to the coast. The GFS remained clueless almost to the start time!
Based on this and especially if this threat continues on the Euro, I may start paying attention to the ICON. I just noticed that the 12Z Wed ICON actually had wintry precip back to the SE coast though that wasn't on later runs.