• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Stormdoc said:
GFS also ticked west a little more. My biggest concern for this to trend further west to our favor is that kicker to the west that is so close behind. If this flow was not so darn progressive I would be very excited right now. Someone can tell me if I am off base with that assessment. No doubt coastal cyclogenesis here is going to happen, but how far west can it go?
Click to expand...

Any other time a NW trend would definitely happen but that kicker like you said is just not our friend. Where I defer to the smarter people on the board is how much that kicker has to change to bring this back west. Is it a slowdown of 12 hours that's the difference? Little changes can go a long way with this system IMO.
 
Shaggy said:
Any other time a NW trend would definitely happen but that kicker like you said is just not our friend. Where I defer to the smarter people on the board is how much that kicker has to change to bring this back west. Is it a slowdown of 12 hours that's the difference? Little changes can go a long way with this system IMO.
Click to expand...
Make this neutral/negative over Atlanta. The idea of having a 2 contour closed low pass to our west then south and getting nothing but a few clouds makes me want to punch puppies.
1579266961316.png
 
SD said:
Make this neutral/negative over Atlanta. The idea of having a 2 contour closed low pass to our west then south and getting nothing but a few clouds makes me want to punch puppies.
View attachment 31286
Click to expand...
Man I saw this morning too and was thinking there is no way, no way there isn't more precip with this system... also it could certainly end up a little more west, the trend hasn't stop, yet, this time. But as other's have mentioned, that stupid kicker tho...
 
metwannabe said:
Man I saw this morning too and was thinking there is no way, no way there isn't more precip with this system... also it could certainly end up a little more west, the trend hasn't stop, yet, this time. But as other's have mentioned, that stupid kicker tho...
Click to expand...
Yeah, there are some flat jet out front issues too. We will see, all we really need to do is put more energy into the cut off and get it to separate from the parent trough in the NE once that happens all bets are off.
 
Jon said:
Yeah. I’ve thrown in the towel for Jan for my area. You can’t ignore the trends here...it’s amazing what 2 days can do. The boards were exploding with excitement, 3 GFS snows in a row, Euro EPS starting to pick up on the threat and BOOM. Gone.







Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...


Yep. Call me a sucker though...I'm still holding out hope for a 7-10 day period in February or early March where we can get a couple of chances.
 
SD said:
Seems like the GEFS wants to trend toward climo post D10
Click to expand...
Yeah, I think so. I don't know how the model's algos are designed, but I think I read somewhere that that's part of it. That could be wrong, but based on observations, it seems logical.
 
KyloG said:
Yep. Call me a sucker though...I'm still holding out hope for a 7-10 day period in February or early March where we can get a couple of chances.
Click to expand...

Same here, note I just said Jan. Still a believer that we get a snowy pattern at some point. I don’t cancel winter until it’s mid March and nothing looks good in the 10-15 day. Lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Further to @KyloG post of EPS precip trend, check out the continuing SW trend of 500 mb hts since 12Z run (I wish I knew how to animate this): focus on the 2nd green line (552 dm) in GA, which moves from just SW of the SC border near Augusta on the 12Z run to the AL border south of Columbus on the 6Z run or a whopping 150 miles SW or 50 miles per run...so, this is still trending SW markedly.....this could even trend so much SW that it could conceivably even end up being too warm at game time for near the coast at least:

12Z:
1579272741657.png


18Z:
1579272801723.png


0Z:
1579272908501.png


6Z:
1579272948083.png
 
Last edited:
There’s more than enough time and wiggle room for the US 1 and 95 corridors to score the middle of next week. Worth reminding everyone, even though every model shows this as a coast only threat, this is still 5 days out & this is the kind of setup that can turn favorably or unfavorably in a heartbeat and quite wildly at that.
I’d definitely keep an eye on this in areas like RDU, Fayetteville, Goldsboro-Wilson, etc
 
Webberweather53 said:
There’s more than enough time and wiggle room for the US 1 and 95 corridors to score the middle of next week. Worth reminding everyone, even though every model shows this as a coast only threat, this is still 5 days out & this is the kind of setup that can turn favorably or unfavorably in a heartbeat and quite wildly at that.
I’d definitely keep an eye on this in areas like RDU, Fayetteville, Goldsboro-Wilson, etc
Click to expand...

How about the far eastern Midlands to Florence, SC area? Do you think those areas stand a chance at seeing snow? I know it's way too early to tell, but I'm definitely interested.
 
KyloG said:
6z EPS trends and snowfall mean



View attachment 31293View attachment 31294
Click to expand...

Yeah, EPS definitely seems to be honking the horn on this coastal possibility. I think 5 days is plenty of time for this to inch back to our area but I'm still getting flashbacks to the last time we were rooting for a coastal to come back NW and it didn't.

EPS_TotalSnowMembers1-25_SE_2020-01-17_06Z_FHr144_WB.png



EPS_TotalSnowMembers26-50_SE_2020-01-17_06Z_FHr144_WB.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top